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SKIVT-L  May 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L May 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 25 May 2017 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (257 lines)

Expires:201705252000;;170174
FPUS51 KBTV 250732
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017


VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
329 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.TODAY...A slight chance of rain this morning, then rain this
afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts
up to 30 mph, increasing to 40 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain
near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in the
lower 50s. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph, decreasing
to 30 mph after midnight. 
.FRIDAY...Rain in the morning, then occasional showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance
of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. North winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Warmer with highs around 70. Light and
variable winds. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201705251100;;177552
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    60  51  72 SE7       29.83R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    49  49 100 CALM      29.90S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    47  47 100 CALM      29.88R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     50  49  96 MISG      29.87R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      49  48  97 CALM      29.90R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      60  47  61 SE3       29.83R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    56  46  69 SE9       29.84R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    49  47  93 CALM      29.88R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      56  52  88 E3        29.83R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      49  48  99 CALM      29.89R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    59  42  53 E10       29.80S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A E35         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  52  72 S6          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  54  88 S7          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  54  88 N1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;172005
FXUS61 KBTV 250810
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
410 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty downslope winds are expected today, especially across the
southern and central western slopes of the Green Mountains with
isolated power outages possible. A band of light rain will lift
from south to north across the North Country today...with 
rainfall amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch. 
Steadier rain will redevelop tonight and continue into Friday. 
The upcoming weekend with feature a dry Saturday with some 
scattered showers possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 402 AM EDT Thursday...Wind advisory in effect from 11 AM Thursday
to Midnight for localized gusts to 50 mph along the central and
southern western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Forecast concerns today are winds...followed by timing of light rain 
showers. Water vapor shows deep closed full latitude mid/upper level 
trof across the Ohio Valley with strong feed of deep layer moisture 
over the eastern conus. Surface analysis places 994mb low pres over 
central Ohio this morning...with developing gradient associated with 
departing 1015mb high pres and increasing 925mb to 850mb wind 
profiles.

Winds are tricky today...as local btv 2 and 4km...along with the 
latest 3km NAM show some uncertainty in magnitude and areal coverage 
of strongest wind fields. Unlike the wind event on May 5th, the 
925mb to 850mb winds are 10 to 15 knots weaker on all 
solutions...along with weaker low pres and departing high pres. BTV 
2km and Nam 3km continue to show strongest core of 925mb winds of 45 
to 55 knots across central/southern Greens between 18z-00z today. 
Investigating sounding data closely shows bottom of the mix layer 
around 40 to 42 knots at Rutland...but thinking with some downslope 
warming and better mixing...some slightly stronger gusts are 
possible. This thinking also matches the surface gust potential off 
the NAM 3km...which shows values between 40 and 45 knots across the 
central/southern western slopes of the Green Mountains...but values 
quickly taper off over the northern Greens...as core of strongest 
925mb winds weakens. Thinking gusts between 45 and 50 mph looks good 
from just east of Danby to Wallingford to just east of Rutland to 
East Middlebury with 35 to 45 mph for Nashville/Underhill areas. 
Some isolated power outages possible...along with some downed small 
trees and limbs...but less impact than the May 5th event. 

Models in good agreement with band of warm air advection rain 
showers lifting from south to north across our cwa between 15z and 
20z today. Expecting a 2 to 4 hour window of mainly light rain 
showers...which will be highly terrain driven in terms of qpf 
placement...given the low level wind fields. Qpf will range from 
<0.10 along the downsloping regions of the western slopes/eastern 
CPV/NEK and western dacks...with a 0.25 or so on the southeast 
upslope areas of the eastern dacks/southeast greens. The initial 
surge of favorable lift/upper level divergence will be north of our 
cwa by 20z today...resulting in much less areal coverage of precip 
and mainly over the se upslope regions.

Meanwhile...water vapor shows potent 5h vort in the flow aloft over 
central NC...will help to enhance shower/storms across the mid 
Atlantic States this aftn. This deeper moisture and stronger lift 
will help to redevelop another round of rain showers aft 06z 
tonight. Expecting heavier qpf values with amounts between 0.25 and 
0.50...mainly CPV and points east. 

Temps mainly upper 50s to upper 60s today and holding in the 50s
overnight with clouds/precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...Vertically stacked low pressure
system moves through eastern New England to start the short 
term. The system is located over Massachusetts Friday morning 
tracking northeast. Precipitation will be widespread across the 
region with the heaviest amounts over Eastern Vermont. Chances 
for precipitation will diminish from west to east by Friday 
afternoon with most activity relegated to the higher terrain and
NEK. QPF looks to range from about 0.2" out west and 0.4" 
across the eastern counties. Temperatures will be seasonably 
cool with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the
40s. 

Saturday will see high pressure build in to start the Memorial
Day weekend. Diminishing cloud cover and warmer temperatures
will lead to quiet and fair day with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...The long term will continue the fair
and quiet conditions as we move further into Memorial Day 
weekend. During the day on Sunday, high pressure ridge crests 
over the area bringing another day of nice conditions for a 
large bulk of the day. As the ridge shifts east, cloud cover 
increases in the afternoon and evening as an upper level low 
pressure system tracks west of the Great Lakes and lifts a warm 
front through the North Country during the overnight hours. 
late-morning to early afternoon Monday will see a pre- frontal 
trough will swing through with shortwave energy, bringing with 
it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The later half of
Tuesday will see some brief breaks in showers before the cold 
front swings through the region Wednesday bringing with it 
another chance for showers.

High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Aviation concerns will be gusty southeast
winds at Rutland today...followed by lowering cigs with some
mvfr conditions expected by this evening. As low pres
approaches...gusty southeast winds will develop with localized
gusts to 40 knots possible at Rut between 17z-01z today. Expect
areas of moderate to severe turbulence...especially near the
terrain. Meanwhile...a ribbon of rain will move from south to
north across our taf sites btwn 15-21z with mainly vfr 
conditions...trending toward mvfr cigs at mpv/mss/pbg by 00z 
this evening. As winds shift to the north...expect lowering cigs
at btv/rut by 06z Friday. Downslope southeast flow will keep 
vfr conditions at rut/btv through today. Additional showers are
expected to redevelop aft 04z tonight and continue into Friday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...RA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight 
     for VTZ011-017>019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 5
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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