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SKIVT-L  May 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L May 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 26 May 2017 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (232 lines)

Expires:201705262000;;220371
FPUS51 KBTV 260718
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017


VTZ006-262000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
315 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.TODAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 50s. Light and variable winds,
becoming north around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Showers likely, mainly until midnight. Lows in
the mid 40s. North winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming
light and variable. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Light and
variable winds. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201705261100;;228338
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    55  54  96 CALM      29.55F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  50  50 100 N3        29.58F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    51  49  92 CALM      29.58F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     50  49  96 MISG      29.55F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  49  47  92 N5        29.58F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   52  51  98 CALM      29.54S                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  50  48  93 CALM      29.54R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  50  48  93 CALM      29.53F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    54  51  92 CALM      29.56F                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   51  46  83 E10       29.60S                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  51  48  89 S3        29.53R                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A E17         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     54  52  94 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  54 100 N8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  52  88 NW15        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;221642
FXUS61 KBTV 260801
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cloudy, cool, and wet day is expected across the North Country 
as coastal low pressure slowly moves away from Southern New 
England. High pressure will produce a dry Saturday and 
Sunday...with more showers arriving Sunday night into Monday. 
Temperatures will be near normal for Saturday...but trend toward
above normal values by Sunday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 348 AM EDT Friday...Current radar shows a band of moderate
to locally heavy rain rotating thru southern/central and eastern
VT this morning with a couple rumbles of thunder. Have mention
isolated thunder in grids for the next couple of hours...noted
VSF had reported lightning and received 0.66 of rain in 2 hours
between 06-08z. 

Water vapor shows well developed cyclone across southern New 
England with classic comma head cloud structure over our cwa 
associated with warm/cold conveyor belt interaction. The 
closed/negatively tilted mid/upper level circulation will track 
across southern New England today...before lifting northeast 
into the Northern Atlantic tonight. This places our 
central/eastern cwa in favorable deformation zones associated 
with comma head today...with widespread light to localized 
moderate rainfall expected. The highest pops/qpf fields will be 
eastern dacks and points east...with precip amounts ranging from
0.25 to 0.75. Thinking an additional 0.50 here in the CPV by 
00z tonight. Helping to enhance precip in the cpv will be 
northerly winds and associated terrain convergence...especially 
aft 15z today. Also...flow becomes highly blocked with froude 
values <0.50 today. Will mention pops near 100% east/central and
taper off to likely/chc SLV today. Given all the clouds and 
precip...along with developing northerly winds...expect temps to
hold steady mainly upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. 

Tonight...mid/upper level cyclonic circulation and associated 
surface low pres slowly lift northeast...with areal coverage of 
precip becoming terrain focused. Some patchy fog is possible with 
saturated boundary layer conditions...but clouds and lack of 
radiational cooling should keep fog to protected valleys and patchy. 
If more clearing occurs than anticipated...than fog could be more 
widespread...but both gfs/nam show lingering 1000 to 500mb rh fields 
>70s for most of the night. Clouds will keep temps steady in the 
mid/upper 40s mountains to mid 50s valleys.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM EDT Friday...Short term begins rather quietly on
Saturday as high pressure builds into the region to start the 
Memorial Day weekend. Diminishing cloud cover will help 
temperatures return to more seasonable norms with highs in the 
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in upper 40s to low 50s. The 
trend continues on Sunday as the high pressure ridge crests over
the area bringing another day of nice conditions for the 
majority of of the day. Another day of clearing skies and 
southwesterly flow will see high temperatures in the mid to 
upper 70s before clouds begin to creep back as the ridge shifts 
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Friday...

The long term starts out with an upper level low pressure 
system tracking west of the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front 
through the North Country during the overnight to pre-dawn hours
of Monday. Late-morning to early afternoon Monday will see a 
weak cold front swing through with shortwave energy, bringing 
with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two. 

Tuesday through Friday will see on and off showers, mainly afternoon 
and evening, as a second cold front and several nuance post frontal 
troughs swing through the region. Cold advection will bring 850mb 
temps down from 7-10C on Tue to around 5C Wed and 4C on Thu. The 
cold advection and daytime heating will contribute to very weak 
instability and scattered showers. High temperatures will start out 
in the 70s on Tue before falling back into the 60s Wed and Thu. Lows 
will in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Very challenging first 6 to 12 hours for
our taf sites...as conditions change from vfr/mvfr to widespread
ifr. Radar shows a band of light to moderate rain rotating
toward our taf sites this morning and utilizing the HRRR
composite reflectivity has this at RUT by 07-08z...MPV around
08z...and BTV/PBG by 09z. Expecting cigs/vis trending toward
mvfr conditions with band of rain...and as winds shift to the
north/northwest btwn 10-14z this morning...expect ifr cigs to
develop in CPV...including PBG/RUT/BTV. Prevailing northeast
flow and low cigs already will keep MSS at ifr conditions.
Latest soundings show cigs continuing to lower at slk as winds
shift to a northerly direction with ifr likely by sunrise.
Widespread IFR cigs likely by 14z...with periods of ifr vis
possible in the heavier convective shower elements. IFR cigs
will prevail into the evening hours...with a slow improving
trend toward 06z Saturday. 


Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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