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SKIVT-L  May 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L May 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 28 May 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201705282000;;335966
FPUS51 KBTV 280933
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
530 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
530 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 

$$


Expires:201705281100;;337599
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    51  49  92 E3        29.90S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       45  45 100 CALM      29.97R VSB<1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       45  45 100 CALM      29.95S VSB 1            
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  47 100 MISG      29.92R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      44  43  97 CALM      29.96R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      48  47  99 CALM      29.93R                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    52  48  87 SE6       29.94R FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    54  51  90 CALM      29.93R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      52  51  95 CALM      29.91S                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    47  47  97 CALM      29.94R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    56  53  90 CALM      29.92R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     39 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A NW9         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  52  88 SE5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  52  94 S7          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  52  94 SE3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;333633
FXUS61 KBTV 280839
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
439 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather continues this Memorial Day weekend with today
shaping up to be the best day of the weekend with high
temperatures in the 70s and no precipitation. The next chance
for showers will come very late Sunday night into Memorial Day.
This will usher in a pattern change with potential for afternoon
showers almost every day this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...Patchy early morning fog should lift 
rather quickly and after that, looking at a warm and dry day with 
highs in the 70s, potentially pushing 80 in the valleys. Fair 
weather cumulus will develop once again over the higher terrain 
in the afternoon. Moisture should remain limited and no 
precipitation is expected. 

Sunday night will remain dry early before the mid-level ridge 
pushes east after midnight. This will lead to mid/upper level 
low progressing eastward into the Great Lakes region. A surface 
low and shortwave trough will pivot through the region, 
dragging a warm frontal feature and associated deep moisture 
through the pre-dawn hours Monday with widespread showers 
developing through the morning. Hi-res models still hint at with
synoptic forcing associated with mid-level WAA as it lifts 
north, there's potential a weak mid-level dry slot building in 
briefly during the late morning to mid-day hours which could 
bring brief period of reduced PoPs and the potential for some 
gusty southeast winds along the northern slopes of the 
Adirondacks as well as western slopes of the Green Mountains as 
a 925-850mb jet of 35-50 kts will be overhead. Thinking is 
still the same as the previous shift, still not thinking this 
will be wind advisory levels, but certainly gusts up to 40mph 
are quite possible. 

The chance for strong winds will quickly subside Monday
afternoon/evening as a weak cold frontal boundary shifts 
through area. With this we can expect to see another brief 
round of showers and would not rule out a rumble or two of 
thunder as well too.


Sunday night will see lows in the 50s, while monday will see
highs Monday slightly below normal in the low 60s and low 70s in
the western counties..

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 418 AM EDT Sunday...Once 850mb warm front lifts to our
north and east late Monday, should see relatively quiet and mild
conditions for Monday night. Deep-layer low pressure anchored
north of the Great Lakes will maintain S-SW winds during the 
overnight hrs. Best chance for PBL decoupling will be east of 
the spine of the Green Mountains, where lows will generally 
range from 45-50F. Across the Champlain and St. Lawrence 
Valleys, should see lows in the low-mid 50s for Monday night,
with S-SW winds 10-15 mph at times.  

On Tuesday, will see some modest 700-500mb height falls from
west to east as center of upper low moves eastward across
northern Ontario. Also, some indication of an embedded shortwave
trough moving newd from wrn NY into our region by late Tuesday
morning/early afternoon. 850mb thermal ridge is slightly more
pronounced in advance of this trough in the 00Z GFS as compared
to previous runs. Insolational heating may contribute to SBCAPE
values of 500-800 J/kg per 00Z NAM during Tuesday afternoon. 
Dewpoints only in the lower 50s, but it appears ingredients are 
sufficient for at least a slight chance of tstms heading into 
Tuesday afternoon. Based on present timing, best sfc heating 
should be across central/s-central VT, and that should coincide 
with best chances of thunderstorms aftn hours Tuesday. High 
temps generally in the lower 70s for valley locations. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 418 AM EDT Sunday...The long-term period will feature a 
broad mid-upper tropospheric low centered in the mean across the
northern Great Lakes region into northern Ontario. The North 
Country will be embedded within a belt of moderately strong, 
cyclonically curved mid-upper level flow Tuesday night through 
Thursday morning. While it is difficult to time individual vort 
maxima within this flow, it appears their presence will be 
frequent enough to result in periods of rain showers, especially
during peak afternoon heating on Wednesday. Some indication 
that a shortwave ridge will briefly build across the region 
Thursday afternoon, so will indicate lower PoPs for that period 
(20-30%). A shortwave trough moving in from the Canadian 
Prairies will reestablish the 500mb trough on Friday, resulting
in a better chance of showers with possible thunderstorms late 
in the day Friday, with showers continuing into Friday 
night/early Saturday based on present indications. In terms of 
temperatures, should see readings relatively close to seasonal 
normals as we move into early June. Will see valley highs in the
low-mid 70s (except upper 60s Thursday), with lows ranging from
the mid 40s to lower 50s. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday....VFR conditions expected overall for most
locations. Clear skies and calm winds have led to radiation 
cooling and patchy fog development in some locations and may
continue to do so. currently VLIFR conditions at KSLK and will
continue through 13Z. KMPV may also see brief IFR mainly 
between 07Z- 11Z. KMSS could also see some brief MVFR fog 
development as well after 06Z.

Conditions improve to VFR around 12Z and persist throughout the
day. Winds will be out of the south on Sunday but remain 
light...around 10kts or less.

Outlook...

Memorial Day: MVFR. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MV
NEAR TERM...MV
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...KGM/MV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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