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SKIVT-L  May 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L May 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 23 May 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (259 lines)

Expires:201705232000;;073266
FPUS51 KBTV 231019
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017


VTZ006-232000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Light and variable
winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 20 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and
variable winds. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201705231100;;073406
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    49  47  93 CALM      29.92S                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    43  43 100 CALM      29.96S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    46  45  96 CALM      29.93S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     48  48 100 MISG      29.92S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       46  45  98 CALM      29.94S VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      46  45  99 CALM      29.94S FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     45  45 100 SE5       29.95F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       47  46  97 CALM      29.94S VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    51  47  83 SW3       29.91S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    47  46  96 CALM      29.92S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    45  43  93 S3        29.95S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     46 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A W30         N/A  WCI  27          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  46  82 SW8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  48  93 S10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  46  87 SW5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;066385
FXUS61 KBTV 230746
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the northeast U.S. today with fair
weather and moderating temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 
70s. A few afternoon showers are possible Wednesday, but high 
temperatures will continue to warm into the low to mid 70s. On
Thursday low pressure will move out of the Tennessee and Ohio 
Valleys and will bring widespread rainfall across the North 
Country on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...Winds have eased as surface high 
pressure builds across the forecast area. Partial clearing 
overnight as drier air works downward from the mid levels. The 
500 mb ridge shifts east during the near term period as the low 
to the west deepens. Great Lakes 500 mb low gets kicked out and 
moves across southern Quebec in the northern stream today, 
bringing a few clouds along the border during the day. Weak 
westerly flow and a little sun will allow temperatures to warm 
into the 60s to low 70s.

Ridging continues tonight, and low level moisture trapped under
inversion, wet ground from recent rainfall and light winds will
contribute to valley fog formation. A 500 mb shortwave trough 
moves out of the base of the mean trough to our west, and up 
the Atlantic coast. A surface low spins up along the coast, and 
the main precip area with this feature will brush southern New 
England tonight, with no precip over Vermont/northern NY. Lows 
tonight in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...For Wednesday the northeast is under
the influence of a weakening surface ridge, while a weak mid
level vort max lifts northeast. Combination of a little bit of
lift from this feature and some differential heating over the
mountains break out slight to low chance pops during the day in
the northern Adirondacks and part of the Green Mountains.
Warming trend continues into Wednesday with highs generally in
the 70s, and lows Wednesday night in the 50s.

Changes start on Thursday as the low to the west begins its 
move to the east. Surface and upper low remain further to 
south/southwest with diffluent flow aloft. 300 mb southerly jet 
noses into New York/Vermont during the day Thursday, while 850 
mb easterly flow brings Atlantic moisture into the area. Pops 
begin to increase far western St. Lawrence County before 
sunrise, then continue to increase west to east during the 
day. Temperatures Thursday 5-10 degrees cooler than Wednesday 
with rain, clouds, and cool flow off the Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Tuesday...New 00z guidance showing some
disagreement with evolution of closed mid/upper level trof and
associated surface low pres. GFS shows a track further east 
with limited qpf Thursday Night into Friday...while ECMWF shows 
a negatively tilted and vertically stacked system moving from 
the Mid Atlantic into Southern New England during this time 
period. Both agree on precip across our cwa...but exact details 
on placement of heaviest precip axis and associated pops still 
has some disagreement. Will continue to mention high likely to 
low cat pops for Thursday Night into Friday (65 to 80%)...with 
highest values central/eastern cwa. Expecting a similar type 
scenario for qpf...as nose of easterly 925mb to 700mb jet is 
angled toward our eastern zones...helping to enhance moisture 
advection off the Atlantic. Speaking of Atlantic...expecting a 
chilly maritime airmass over our cwa during this time period and
have cut superblend temps by 2 to 4 degrees...especially 
eastern/central cwa. The combination of cooler easterly 
flow...lots of clouds/precip...and progged 925mb temps btwn 6-8c
support highs mid 50s to mid 60s. Warmest temps will be western
dacks/SLV. 

For the weekend...weak 1013mb high pres builds into the North
Country for Saturday...with still some embedded short wave
energy and moisture with westerly flow aloft impacting our
northern zones. The combination of lingering moisture...upslope
flow...and weak energy aloft...cannot rule out a few midday
showers...especially central/northern cwa on Saturday. 925mb to
850mb thermal profiles support highs very close to normal with
mid 60s to mid 70s depending upon elevation and cloud coverage.

For Sunday...still some uncertainty on placement of weak
backdoor cold front or developing warm front lifting from
southwest to northeast across our region. This weak convergence
with embedded energy aloft may provide enough lift to support a
few afternoon showers. Instability is limited and displaced to
our southwest...so not anticipating any thunder threat. Have
continued to mention slight chance to chance pops...with threat
increasing during the afternoon hours. In addition to precip 
uncertainty...still some question on max temps for Sunday...with
a wide range in thermal profiles. We will stick close to 
superblend values...which is consistent with previous couple of 
forecasts. Highs mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s...with 74 
expected at BTV.

Even more uncertainty as we head into early next
week...associated with additional energy aloft and timing of
another surface cold front. Latest ECMWF shows several
boundaries lifting across our region with numerous embedded
vorts in the flow aloft...along with ribbons of enhanced mid
level moisture. Initially instability is limited...but increases
some on Tuesday to support a chance of thunder. Will continue to
mention chance pops with near normal temps...as we have plenty
of time to work out the details in the upcoming days. Bottom
line not expecting any long windows without the chance for rain
and no significant heat in days 4 thru 7.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...A challenging aviation forecast
continues thru 12z this morning with fog product and obs showing
multi cloud layers with categories ranging from ifr at rut/mpv to
vfr elsewhere. Thinking ifr conditions become mvfr/vfr at
rut/mpv shortly as winds help with mixing. The combination of
yesterdays rainfall and lighter winds after 08z...and several
locations going 3 to 6 degrees below cross over temps...thinking
some fog/br will develop between 08z-11z. Have utilized tempo
group at rut/mpv and slk to highlight fog/br potential early
this morning. Overall confidence in IFR potential is on the low
side...given 10 to 15 knots of winds around 975mb. After
12z...expecting cigs/vis to become VFR with winds shifting to
the north at 4 to 8 knots...with some localized terrain driven
gusts. Some high clouds possible today as coastal system passes
to our east. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: MVFR with areas of IFR CIGS MPV. Breezy. Likely RA.
Friday: MVFR with IFR MPV/SLK. Likely RA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber

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October 2007, Week 5
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