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SKIVT-L  June 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L June 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 2 Jun 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (228 lines)

Expires:201706022000;;591258
FPUS51 KBTV 020716
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017


VTZ006-022000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
314 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 50s. West winds around 10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the lower 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then
partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs
in the lower 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. West winds
around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable
winds.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 50. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 60. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70.

$$


Expires:201706021100;;599277
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 02 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 51 40 65 S7 29.90R
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 48 37 65 W5 29.92R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 46 40 79 S3 29.90R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 44 42 93 MISG 29.88R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 41 40 95 CALM 29.90R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 47 38 73 CALM 29.92R
RUTLAND* FAIR 47 37 68 SW6 29.92S
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 41 38 89 CALM 29.93S
HIGHGATE* FAIR 48 45 88 S3 29.88S
NEWPORT* FAIR 44 42 93 S3 29.89R
BENNINGTON FAIR 40 38 93 CALM 29.95S
ISLAND POND* N/A 37 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 37 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 41 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 36 N/A N/A W20 N/A WCI 25

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 52 43 71 W12 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 52 43 71 W13 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 43 81 SW5 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;590575
FXUS61 KBTV 020703
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level low pressure system will bring isolated to
scattered showers to the area today before slowly departing to
the east over the weekend. This will lead to a quiet weekend
with below normal temperatures. Showers return Sunday evening
into Monday as another low pressure system brings unsettled
weather through the mid week.Temperatures moderate back toward
seasonal norms from Sunday onward into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Friday...Broad west- northwesterly cyclonic
flow will continue through Friday with increasing clouds and
moisture in the low to mid levels. By mid afternoon today the
cold pool aloft and energy from shortwave rounding the base of a
low pressure system will be moving over the North Country. The
increased moisture and steep lapse rates will cause scattered
showers again for the region. The best chance will be along the
international border and in the western slopes of the Greens and
Adirondacks as the best axis of moisture enhancement will be
along the international border. With the northwest flow settling
into the region the western slopes should be in a favourable
terrain driven regime with scattered light showers possible.

In the afternoon a 925-700mb deformation zone sets up and
brings a line of light rain showers from the north to south
starting around 17z reaching southern Vermont by 00z. I dont
expect all day rain today but the idea that most locations
could see some light precip (0.01-0.1") through the afternoon
hours seems reasonable. In the evening hours the precip will
trend to more just terrain driven enhancement with scattered
showers in the higher elevations.

By Saturday the showers should be coming to an end with just
some lingering mountain activity through mid day. The upper
level low will have exited the North Country allow for brief
surface ridging to build in.

The cold air aloft and surface cold air advection will keep
temperatures today on the lower side below normal as we only
warm to the mid 50s to near 60 in the warmer valleys for
afternoon highs. This continues into the evening hours Friday
night as temps fall to the low to mid 40s. There should be
enough cloud cover over the region to prevent the Northeast
Kingdom from bottoming out but a few spot temps in the 30s
wouldn't surprise me. As the weak ridge starts to build in on
Saturday expect another cold day. Temps will be warming in the
Saint Lawrence and should get into the mid 60s however east of
the Greens cold air will be locked in place and temps will only
warm to the low to mid 50s which is closer to our normal min
temp than max.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Friday...Flow aloft will be transitioning from
the northwest Saturday night to the west on Sunday. Moisture is
somewhat limited and forcing will be as well Saturday night and
as a result will go with a dry forecast. As the flow becomes
more westerly on Sunday...some warm air advection will help
enhance the potential for some showers later in the day...mainly
across northern New York. The warm air advection will also
bring warmer temperatures to the area with highs generally in
the 60s to around 70. Rainfall amounts Sunday afternoon will
generally be less than a tenth of an inch across northern New
York.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Friday...The backing flow aloft continues
Sunday night as upper trough approaches the region and the
trough will eventually close off late Sunday night and
especially Monday into Monday night. Much better chances for
rainfall will exist during this period...especially late Sunday
night and Monday and even into the first part of Tuesday as the
low will be slow to move out of the area. Plenty of clouds plus
the precipitation will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. At this time it does look like the middle to late
part of next week will see the low finally move far enough away
to have little impact on the area. Upper ridge wants to build in
and this suggests we could see a warming and drying trend
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday....VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the overnight hours before west to northwest flow sets
up and the moisture increases by day break Friday. Expect the
northwest flow to bring MVFR ceilings to SLK/MPV/BTV between
12-15z with low VFR conditions expected elsewhere. With steep
lapse rates in the low and mid levels anticipate another day of
gusty winds although they should be lower than Thursday. West
to northwest winds between 5-10kts will gust to 10-20kts through
the afternoon. In the afternoon scattered showers will track
from north to south initially moving into the northern locations
between 16-18z and then tracking south reaching RUT by 22-00z.
I opted to continue with just VCSH due to confidence in the
location of the showers as I dont anticipate a full line of
showers.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG
WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely
SHRA. Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None. NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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