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SKIVT-L  June 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L June 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 6 Jun 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (250 lines)

Expires:201706062000;;796858
FPUS51 KBTV 060738
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
334 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017


VTZ006-062000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
334 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 50s. East winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with showers likely until midnight, then partly
cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Light and variable
winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 

$$


Expires:201706061100;;803838
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 06 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  52  49  89 SE8       29.86R                  
MONTPELIER     RAIN      48  48 100 CALM      29.90F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  48  47  96 CALM      29.90R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  47  93 MISG      29.87S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      47  45  91 N6        29.91R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      49  47  93 CALM      29.84R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  50  44  80 E7        29.83R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  49  44  83 E5        29.87S                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  50  49  97 NE6       29.88R                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      48  47  97 N3        29.92S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    53  44  71 E13G25    29.77R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     46 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A E25         N/A  WCI  28          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  50  93 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  50  87 E12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  48  82 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;797585
FXUS61 KBTV 060801
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will continue to provide cool and wet 
conditions to the North Country today before high pressure 
builds over the region tonight through Wednesday. Outside of a 
few mountain showers, Thursday will be dry as well, but the 
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns for Friday through 
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...Awful is the only word to describe 
the weather for the North Country today. Just awful. After two 
days of really hit or miss showers as upper level low pressure 
to our west dropped out of southern Ontario, today we're in the 
sweet spot for widespread rains to develop with a deep low/mid 
level east/northeast fetch off the Atlantic. Showers have been 
on the light side so far tonight, but have become increasingly 
more widespread, and while the intensity should remain light 
through about the morning commute, steadier moderate rain will 
develop from mid-morning onward as better upper level support 
and stronger UVV's shift over the region. To add to the 
awfulness, temperatures are going to go just about nowhere 
today, with the daily highs likely already reached in many 
locations. Northern areas will hold fairly steady in the low/mid
50s, with upper 40s to low 50s south making for daily averages 
about 10 degrees below normal for early June.

As we head into this evening the trend will be towards drier 
weather as a ridge of surface high pressure builds in from the 
north. Showers persist through about sunset across the 
international border, dissipating from north to south through 
midnight, where thereafter the region will be dry through 
Wednesday. Skies will generally clear through the night from 
north to south as well, with lows mainly in the 40s except spot 
upper 30s in the Saranac Lake region. On Wednesday we'll finally
see the sun again under light northerly winds and it'll be 
quite pleasant with highs bumping into the upper 60s to mid 70s,
and dewpoints comfortably in the upper 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...Generally quiet weather expected for
Wednesday night into Thursday night as shortwave ridging builds
atop the area to the north of the pesky upper low across the 
Mid-Atlantic region. Models do hint at a narrow instability axis
extending southwest to northeast into our area Thursday 
afternoon into early evening, so perhaps a stray afternoon 
shower may pop up here and there. Most areas should remain 
largely dry however. Temperatures continue to moderate with 
overnight lows from the mid 40s to mid 50s, and afternoon highs 
on Thursday from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...Plenty to discuss in the day 4-7 
time frame. By Friday the upper low tightens and begins to lift 
steadily northeastward in response to deepening offshore surface
low and additional northern stream shortwave troughing 
approaching from the north and west. Models remain consistent in
showing residual moisture from the upper feature interacting 
with convergence and dynamic support from the shortwave trough 
to allow a general reblossoming of shower activity across the 
area. Instability is rather marginal, though it is plausible a 
few thunderstorms may develop within a regime of near dry 
adiabatic mid level lapse rates. Additional QPF of a quarter to 
half inch is possible across the eastern two thirds of the 
forecast area. Highs to trend a bit cooler with clouds/showers 
being more abundant -mainly upper 60s to mid 70s.

Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms continue into 
Saturday as shortwave trough exits the area and airmass 
moderates back to near or slightly above seasonal late spring 
averages. Confidence only modest on overall coverage of 
convection with this morning's Canadian and ECWMF much less 
bullish on QPF potential than the GFS. Blended pops offer values
in the 30-40% range which is a reasonable compromise at this 
point.

A bigger developing story will be the potential for scattered 
strong convection during Sunday/Sunday night followed by some of
the hottest temperatures of the season for early next week. 
Global output remains largely in agreement that a large heat 
dome will build bodily east and north during this period as 
strong upper ridging amplifies across the eastern half of the 
nation. On the leading edge of the deeper heat and moisture will
be the potential for scattered ridge-roller-type convection, 
potentially strong as an impressive EML advects into the region 
on northwesterly flow aloft later Sunday into Sunday night. 
Indeed, a cursory look at shear/instability progs off this 
morning's GFS look quite impressive with SIG SVR parameters 
quite high. Much too far out to get overly concerned at this 
point but signals are there in the data. Best focus appears to 
occur across the central and northern counties northward into 
southern Ontario/Quebec - that is, if you believe the 
deterministic output literal. Time will tell. Highs on Sunday 
generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s (possibly a bit warmer),
with the true heat arriving by next Monday. If the averaged 925
mb model temps (GFS/Canadian/Euro) of 24C at 18Z Monday are any
indication, hot weather will arrive in earnest. In fact, GFS 
progs show +26 to +28C at 925 mb! Typically we add 10C to the 
18Z 925 mb temperatures this time of year to get an 
approximation for max surface temperatures, so do some simple 
math and you get the picture. For now have offered upper 80s to 
lower 90s for maxes on Monday, though admittedly this could be 
on the conservative side.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...MVFR conditions will largely prevail 
through the next 12 hours with a trend towards VFR from north to
south after 18Z. Scattered rain showers through 12-14Z become 
more widespread and persistent from 14-22Z before a gradual 
diminishing of areal coverage from north to south through 
midnight. Winds light <10kts for most sites through the period
except northeast 10-18kts at KMSS, and southeast 10-18kts at
KRUT through 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

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January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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