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SKIVT-L  June 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L June 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 5 Jun 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (275 lines)

Expires:201706052000;;745368
FPUS51 KBTV 050743
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017


VTZ006-052000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
339 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy with a chance of showers. A slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Southeast
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then showers likely after midnight.
Lows in the upper 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. East winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 40s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower
70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201706051100;;753046
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 05 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    57  53  86 SE7       29.78S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    52  52 100 E3        29.86R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    52  50  93 VRB5      29.83F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     53  52  96 MISG      29.82S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      50  49  98 CALM      29.85S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    57  51  80 SE8       29.77F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    54  52  93 SE12      29.80S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    54  52  93 CALM      29.83R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    55  51  86 E3        29.79S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    50  50  99 CALM      29.84S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    55  52  89 CALM      29.78R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A E26         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  52  82 E2          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  54  94 S1          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  54  94 S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;748145
FXUS61 KBTV 050833
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
433 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure dropping out of southern Ontario will
bring unsettled conditions to the North Country through Tuesday. 
Scattered showers will develop across northern New York this 
afternoon, and become widespread across the remainder of the 
forecast area tonight and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday with chances for showers and 
thunderstorms returning Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 433 AM EDT Monday...Overall little change from the 
previous forecast thinking as the synoptic pattern for the next 
36 hours hasn't changed. Basic idea is that upper level low 
pressure currently over southern Ontario drops into the eastern 
Great Lakes today, while surface low pressure develops off the 
Delmarva Peninsula tonight and tracks northeast to just outside 
the benchmark by 12Z Tuesday. This morning starts out mainly dry
with a few scattered showers around, but by this afternoon 
increasing southeasterly surface flow from the coastal low will 
advect rich Atlantic moisture into the region while increasing 
southwesterly flow and shortwave energy aloft ejecting from the 
upper low will provide the lift necessary for showers to 
develop. Showers develop first across northern New York this 
afternoon, then become fairly widespread through the night and 
into Tuesday as the coastal low exits east and the upper low 
becomes nearly stationary over the Buffalo area.

As for the finer details of the forecast, well, that's a bit
more complicated with the forecast challenges two-fold. First, 
there remains the potential for pockets of heavy convective rain
across northern New York this afternoon as an area of elevated 
instability shifts from western New York northeast into the 
North Country. Already seeing some thunderstorms develop 
over/near Lake Ontario currently, so maintained the previous 
forecast of slight chance of thunderstorms. Secondly, 
increasing east/southeasterly flow across Vermont will provide 
the potential for gusty to locally strong downslope winds across
the western slopes of the Greens. Locally run 2km and 4km WRF 
models show 35-45kt 925mb southeasterly winds developing late 
this afternoon across the northern Greens, shifting the focus to
the southern Greens this evening. The limiting factor in the 
strongest winds occurring at the surface will be the mixing as 
rain will be moving in helping to stabilize the low levels, but 
think gusts in the 30-40 mph are likely. Overall winds of this 
magnitude are typically not damaging, but with extremely wet 
soils from persistent rains over the past month, I can see the 
potential for a few trees to come down.

Temps through the period will remain below normal for highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s today, and mainly 50s Tuesday, with
lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Widespread shower activity then 
continues into Tuesday night, especially across central and 
southern counties. Upper low will begin to pivot bodily 
southward during this period so northern counties will begin to 
trend drier over time. Additional QPF of a quarter to half inch 
will be possible south, with lighter amounts as one progresses 
northward. Low temperatures close to blended guidance, mainly in
the 40s under overcast skies.

By Wednesday broad-scale drying begins in earnest as upper low 
continues to sink steadily southward while weakening. With loss of 
deformational processes and a broad-scale weakening of upper PV 
support the idea of showers waning and shifting south appears 
reasonable with mainly dry weather expected in most areas by later 
in the day. Skies will also trend partly cloudy through the day with 
some progs showing nearly full sunshine along the international 
border by later in the day as deep-layer ridging builds south from 
southern Canada. Temperatures could be a bit tricky depending on how 
much afternoon sun is realized. The overall idea will be for 
slightly milder weather north (upper 60s to lower 70s) where a 
longer duration of partial sunshine is expected, and slightly cooler 
south (lower to mid 60s) where clouds will hang on a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...By Thursday into Thursday night 
airmass modifies such that temperatures should climb back to 
seasonal norms for most spots. A narrow instability axis may 
develop by afternoon into early evening so the idea of widely 
scattered showers and a possible stray thunderstorm appears 
reasonable at this point. Most areas should remain dry however. 

Looking ahead into Friday and Saturday chances of showers remain in 
the forecast as additional energy in the form of a shortwave trough 
swings into the region. Solid chance pops will be offered during 
this period, especially during the daylight hours when some modest 
surface instability fosters better convective potential. A few 
stronger storms may develop on Saturday when combination of shear, 
instability and passage of trough occurs, but at this point it 
the threat of widespread severe weather looks low.

By Sunday into Monday the latest signals continue to suggest that we 
may be in store for another quick shot of heat from Mother Nature as 
a building meridional upper ridge develops across the eastern third 
of the nation. Given broad consensus on this scenario have raised 
max temperatures somewhat above blended guidance conservatively 
showing upper 70s/lower 80s on Sunday and solid 80s on Monday. If 
one were to believe this morning's GFS 925 mb thermal progs for 
Monday literal, highs in the 90s would not be unreasonable. 
Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Current VFR cigs will generally trend to 
MVFR through the night and remain MVFR through the remainder of 
the period with exceptions being KBTV/KRUT where southeasterly 
flow will keep cigs mainly VFR, and KMSS where northeasterly
flow will bring cigs briefly to IFR this afternoon. Scattered
showers develop across northern New York this afternoon,
spreading eastward into Vermont towards sunset reducing vsby to
5SM. Winds mainly not an issue except at KRUT where gusts
15-20kts are likely mid-morning to early afternoon, increasing
to 25-30kts from late afternoon onward.

Outlook...

Tuesday: MVFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several rounds of showers with localized heavy rainfall possible
on Monday into Tuesday...as a slow moving storm system and
associated boundary impact the North Country. Difficult to pin
point exact placement of heaviest rainfall axis...but a few
sharp rises on local streams and rivers are possible...which 
will have to be watched closely. The expected rainfall will 
vary greatly from 0.50 to over 2.0 with isolated values up to 3 
inches in the most persistent rain bands on Monday afternoon 
into Tuesday.

The greatest potential for heavy rain looks to be across the 
northern Adirondack Mountains in New York and parts of 
central/southern VT...especially the easterly upslope sides of 
the Green Mountains. 

Given the recent rains area rivers and streams are currently at
or slightly above normal levels for this time of year...which
with additional rain expected may cause a few rivers to approach
bankful.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff
HYDROLOGY...Taber

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June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
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May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 5
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June 2005, Week 2
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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June 2002, Week 5
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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