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SKIVT-L  June 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L June 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 7 Jun 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (244 lines)

Expires:201706072000;;846226
FPUS51 KBTV 070726
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017


VTZ006-072000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...Areas of dense fog this morning. Sunny. Highs in the mid
70s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower
70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs around 80. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201706071100;;853775
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FOG       46  45  96 CALM      30.01R VSB<1/4          
MONTPELIER     FOG       44  44 100 CALM      30.02R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    39  39 100 S5        30.02R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  44 100 MISG      29.98R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      45  43  93 CALM      30.00R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG       42  41  99 CALM      30.01R VSB 1/2          
RUTLAND*       FOG       46  46 100 CALM      30.01R VSB 1/2          
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       46  44  93 CALM      29.98R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      43  43 100 CALM      30.02R                  
NEWPORT*       FOG       40  40 100 CALM      30.01R VSB 1/4          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    48  45  89 NE3       29.99R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A NW14        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  46  87 S5          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  50 100 S3          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  46 100 N2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;847118
FXUS61 KBTV 070756
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of dense fog early this morning will lift into a pleasant late 
spring day with sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s. A 
few terrain driven showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday 
through Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening 
hours. Building heat is expected Sunday into next week with several 
days well into the 80s and possibly 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers have finally exited the 
forecast area and skies continue to clear from north to south. 
Calm winds, recent rainfall and saturated soils have all 
combined to allow fairly widespread dense fog to develop as the 
skies cleared, with just about every ASOS/AWOS in the BTV CWA 
reporting visibilities less than a mile. Lot's of fog noted on 
area webcams as well, especially on major interstates and 
highways so have decided hoist a dense fog advisory for the 
remainder of the night through 8 AM where thereafter fog should 
dissipate rapidly. Beyond early this morning, the next 24 hours 
will be very quiet and pleasant as building high pressure from 
the north will push the nearly stationary low/trough which 
brought yesterdays awful weather south of the region. Sunny 
skies and temps in the 70s are expected today, and mainly clear 
skies tonight with lows variable in the 40s mountains to 50s in 
the deeper valleys. Could see another round of fog tonight as 
well, though most likely confined to the climo favored river 
valleys.

For Thursday, upper level ridge and surface high pressure over 
southern Ontario/Quebec and the North Country break down 
allowing closed stationary upper low pressure over western PA/NY
to shift slightly north. It appears there will be enough lift 
and surface instability to produce a few terrain driven showers 
and/or thunderstorms in the afternoon, but expect coverage to be
fairly limited. Temps will climb a few degrees warmer than the 
previous day, topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...For Thursday night into Friday the
overall theme remains largely unchanged from this time last 
night. Our pesky upper trough will lift northeast from the Mid-
Atlantic during this period in response to additional northern 
stream shortwave energy tracking southeast from southern Canada.
A band of scattered shower activity still looks reasonable 
across the area Thursday night with perhaps an isolated 
thunderstorm or two along a weak PVA band associated with the 
southern feature. On Friday better dynamic upper support from 
approaching northern stream/southern Canada trough will interact
with departing upper system across eastern New England to allow
a general re-blossoming of showers and isolated storms across 
the area. Best coverage of rainfall appears to set up across the
eastern half of the area where a somewhat higher coverage of 
clouds will exist. Temperatures should range close to seasonal 
norms during the period with overnight lows mainly in the 50s 
and corresponding Friday highs in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...The shortwave trough then tracks 
through the region Friday night into Saturday morning with a 
continued chance of showers, though activity should trend south 
and east over time. A few thunderstorms will also remain 
possible in an environment of dry adiabatic mid level lapse 
rates. Many areas will remain dry during this period however. 
Temperatures remain relatively close to seasonal norms, perhaps 
a tad above normal.

Looking further out, a perusal of this morning's global 
deterministic output still suggests a period of active weather 
remains possible in the Sunday/Monday time frame as a heat ridge
across the Central and Northern Plains builds bodily east into 
the Great Lakes and Northeast. During this period our area will 
lie on the northern periphery of the heat as a pronounced EML is
advected eastward on fast west/northwesterly flow aloft and 
will interact with fairly robust instability and deep layer 
shear. While it's too soon to pinpoint exact details, these 
factors combined with ill- defined shortwave energy appear to 
favor some sort of deeper ridge- roller-type convection 
affecting the area, especially across our central and northern 
counties. You name the model and you get a different solution in
regard to strength, timing and placement of this potential 
convection during this period. Complicating matters will be a 
potential mid-level thermal cap as one progresses south into the
deeper heat which would act to suppress convective development.
Time will tell how this all evolves, but as stated last night 
this period will need to be watched closely. What is more 
certain is that it will feel very summerlike from Sunday onward.
Temperatures trend warm to hot, with highs on Sunday in the 
lower to mid 80s, climbing into the mid 80s to lower 90s on 
Monday with increasing humidity. What a change a few days make!

As we progress into mid-week anomalous warmth looks to continue
as heat ridge holds steady across the eastern third of the 
nation. A weak boundary appears to set up in the vicinity of the
international border, so the idea of a continued daily threat 
of showers and storms looks reasonable at this point. Given the 
warmth and expected boundary layer instability it's reasonable 
to assume of few of the storms could be strong as well. High 
temperatures should continue to run well above seasonal norms 
with daily highs holding in the 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of MVFR to VLIFR will continue
through 12-13Z in areas of fog and low stratus. Thereafter, VFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period with
light northerly winds.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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