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SKIVT-L  June 2017, Week 2

SKIVT-L June 2017, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 10 Jun 2017 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (218 lines)

Expires:201706102000;;002997
FPUS51 KBTV 101032
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017


VTZ006-102000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
629 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Light and variable winds,
becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight. 
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. West winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201706101100;;002958
ASUS41 KBTV 101030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    56  53  90 CALM      29.88                   
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     51  50  96 CALM      29.93R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    44  43  96 CALM      29.91                   
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     48  28  46 MISG      29.89R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      46  45  95 CALM      29.92R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    56  54  91 CALM      29.90R                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     53  48  83 SE6       29.92R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     51  48  89 CALM      29.91R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      50  50  99 CALM      29.90R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      47  46  95 CALM      29.92R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     50  48  93 CALM      29.92R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A W16         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  54  94 E1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  54  88 W7          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  55  82 NW5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;999095
FXUS61 KBTV 100856
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
456 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance may spark a stray shower or thunderstorm 
this afternoon, otherwise mainly dry weather and warming 
temperatures are expected into Monday. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms, a few strong are expected by Monday afternoon 
into Monday night as a cold front drops through the area. Behind
the front a cooler more seasonal airmass returns to the region 
by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...The forecast remains largely on 
track as of early morning. As advertised a weak shortwave trough
aloft will swing through the region today sparking a few 
showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two. Weak instability 
and a general lack of dynamical forcing with this feature 
support only 15-30 pops with many areas remaining dry. Mid level
cloud cover should be somewhat more abundant this morning, 
trending partly sunny by afternoon as the impulse exits east. 
High temperatures close to persistence given consistency in 
model thermal profiles - mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds light.

Partly cloudy skies generally continue tonight as we transition 
sharply into an expected 2-day stretch of heat and humidity. While 
no precipitation is expected, nocturnal wind fields increase sharply 
from the west/southwest in the lower and mid levels with surface 
gusts increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range from the Champlain 
Valley west after midnight. This feature lies on the nose of a 
pronounced EML aloft originating across the northern plains this 
morning and this feature will lie across our area into early next 
week. For minimum temperatures I leaned heavily toward a bias-
corrected MOS blend showing coolest readings (55-60) across eastern 
VT and sheltered portions of the Dacks with milder values (60s) in 
the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys where nocturnal mixing will 
increase overnight.

The first in a 2-day stretch of warm and muggy weather then arrives 
on Sunday as mean afternoon 925 mb temperatures climb into the 19-
23C range. This supports widespread highs in the 80s to locally 
around 90 in the Champlain Valley and valleys of southern VT. A 
pronounced thermal CAP beneath broad scale ridging will suppress any 
convection through most of the day, though a stray shower or storm 
may be possible across the far north toward evening as a weakening 
impulse skirts the international border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday night and Monday our region
will continue to be under very warm air mass. A cold front will
be draped to our North and will be the focus for developing
showers Monday afternoon. Sunday night will be very warm with
lows mainly in the 60s across the North Country. Winds will be
strong initially, especially in the Saint Lawrence valley, but
will lessen overnight. During the second half of the overnight
have mentioned a chance for some showers especially across our
Northern zones. A shortwave will pass north of our forecast
area, right now looks like timing will be between 06-12z.
International border will continue to be the focus for more
showers and thunderstorms on Monday as aforementioned cold front
droops south and into our forecast area. Maximum temperatures
on Monday will be near record levels, upper 80s to around 90.
With frontal zone nearby and some surface based instability with
very warm air in place, think we'll see some thunderstorms
become strong. Still a ways out to figure out possibility for
any severe storms, but at this time looks like it will be
something to watch. NAM indicates CAPE greater than 1000 j/kg.
Will also have strong winds aloft. Timing of front will play a
role in potential for strong to severe storms.  

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Saturday...Monday night and Tuesday scattered 
showers will continue as surface cold front continues to drift 
southward across our area. Cooler temperatures will then return
through the rest of the week. Tuesday night through Tuesday will
be dry. Thursday night and Friday will be our next chance for
showers with a cold front crossing our area as a low lifts
through central Quebec. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly VFR through the period with SCT/BKN
cigs in the 050-100 AGL range through 18Z, trending mainly SKC
thereafter. Isolated to widely scattered showers or a stray
storm to affect the area through 18Z with passage of weak 
impulse aloft, though paucity of coverage warrants no mention in
the terminal forecasts at this point. Light winds to trend south
to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts this afternoon before abating to
light once again after 00Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG

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December 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 5
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January 2005, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
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February 2001, Week 1
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