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SKIVT-L  June 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 21 Jun 2017 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (238 lines)

Expires:201706212000;;573013
FPUS51 KBTV 210814
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017


VTZ006-212000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
411 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms this morning, then scattered showers this afternoon.
Highs around 70. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with isolated showers until midnight, then
mostly clear after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. West winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 50. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 

$$


Expires:201706211100;;578616
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    64  58  80 S6        29.82S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    62  53  72 S7        29.87F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    55  53  93 S3        29.84F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     57  56  96 MISG      29.82F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    57  53  89 E3        29.86S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    62  57  84 S3        29.85S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    59  55  87 SE6       29.88S                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    56  54  93 W3        29.89R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    63  54  73 SW8       29.82S                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   56  54  92 CALM      29.83F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    57  55  93 CALM      29.90S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A W29         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  57  77 SW7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  59  88 SW8         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  59  88 W2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;574427
FXUS61 KBTV 210839
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
439 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers are forecast today as the low pressure system
that has brought unsettled weather to the area departs the 
region. Dry weather is forecast tonight through Thursday under 
high pressure, then rain chances increase again on Friday. 
Temperatures will be near their seasonal normals, with highs in 
the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 412 AM EDT Wednesday...We're on the downhill stretch of 
moving the persistent trough out of the area. Trough axis is 
shifting east, and showers associated with the vort max moving 
through the forecast area in the pre-dawn hours. Previous 
forecast still valid with most organized precip with the vort 
max, then continued isolated to scattered showers today in 
instability under cool pool aloft with trough axis passage. 
Wind turns westerly today at 10-15 mph with passage of trough. 
Limited sunshine and cooler air under the trough will keep temps
in the upper 60s mountains to mid 70s Champlain valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 412 AM EDT Wednesday...500 mb heights begin to rise 
tonight with trough shifting to the east. Surface ridge axis 
starts out to the west tonight, and shifts slowly east to become
centered over the region by Thursday morning. Light westerly 
flow near the surface and northwest flow at 850 mb on up. Lower 
layer RH will provide for partial clearing. Lows tonight in the 
50s.

Thursday to be a winner for outdoor activities with dry 
humidity, plenty of sun, and max temps in the 70s to near 80. 
Surface ridge slowly pulls east with low level flow returning to
light southerly warm air advection, while 500 mb shortwave 
ridge moves west to east. Continued low RH and subsidence with 
the ridge will keep skies mostly clear. With the sunshine we 
should realize the potential max temps based on 925 & 850 mb 
temps, which support highs in the 70s to near 80 in the 
Champlain Valley.

More precip forecast Thursday night and Friday. Leading 
shortwave trough ahead of an approaching 500 mb trough crashes 
through the ridge late Thursday night, and pops increase to 
chance category west to east to cover entire area for Friday. 
Main low moves well northeast into Quebec as steering flow turns
more southwesterly ahead of the deepening low over the Great 
lakes. Trailing cold front will provide focus for convection 
Friday. Remnants of TS Cindy will remain to the south and exit 
the mid-Atlantic coast, however southwest flow in the mid levels
will advect plenty of subtropical moisture ahead of the surface
front.

Potential for big rainfall rates again on Friday similar to 
Mondays storms. Model soundings showing precipitable water again
climbing to near 2", which is 2-3 standard deviations above 
normal. Saturated sounding and warm cloud depth over 10K feet 
signal very efficient warm rainfall processes. The main 
difference between last Monday and upcoming Friday is the 
surface boundary is forecast to keep moving along so don't 
expect storms linger or train over any one area. Will still see 
heavy rain rates as they pass and have added heavy rain to 
Friday's storm characteristics. Despite clouds & rain Friday 
will be warmer than Thursday in warm southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 438 AM EDT Wednesday...Frontal boundary continues to linger 
on into the extended period through early Saturday as upper 
level support in the form of mid- level vorticity lags behind. 
Widespread activity should be done in the morning but some 
isolated showery activity is still possible in the afternoon. 
The front clears the region by Sunday as a weak short ridge 
slightly disrupts the broad upper trof over the northeast giving
a short reprieve before the next system moves in to start next 
week. Models at this point differ on the evolution of the next 
low forming over the Great Lakes and the progression of it 
through the end of the period, so for now have opted stick with 
the consensus of slight to chance PoPs for the early half of 
next week.

Expect highs in the upper 60s to 70s during the period and lows in 
the 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions overall for the period
with another area of showers expected to move northeastward 
from the eastern Great Lakes will bring chance of showers or 
VCSH and possibly some MVFR cigs at MSS and SLK from 06-09Z. 
Expect the potential for these showers to shift east into the 
Champlain Valley after sunrise, diminishing throughout the 
morning. Towards early morning, mainly clear skies and subsiding
winds over MPV bringing the possibility for MVFR conditions 
between 08z- 12z. Wednesday morning will see VFR conditions 
persisting throughout the day.

Overnight most terminals will see winds between 5-10 knots 
through sunrise. Winds will pick up out of the SW around 
10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots developing Wind direction
will shift W/NW in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...MV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2005, Week 5
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October 2004, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
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February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
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January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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