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SKIVT-L  June 2017, Week 5

SKIVT-L June 2017, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 29 Jun 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (248 lines)

Expires:201706292000;;989580
FPUS51 KBTV 290710
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017


VTZ006-292000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
307 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy. Patchy dense fog this morning. A chance of showers
this morning, then showers this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall
possible this afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable
winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of
rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms until
midnight, then occasional showers and thunderstorms likely after
midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible until midnight. Lows
around 60. Southeast winds around 10 mph, becoming southwest after
midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
A chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Locally heavy
rainfall possible in the afternoon. Warmer with highs in the upper
70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Occasional showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy
rainfall possible. Humid with highs in the lower 80s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Occasional showers and thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper
70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 60. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 

$$


Expires:201706291100;;997171
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    64  50  60 S10       30.05S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       49  49 100 NE3       30.11F VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       50  50 100 CALM      30.09S VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  49 100 MISG      30.08S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       49  48  97 CALM      30.11S VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      59  52  79 CALM      30.08S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    54  50  86 SE8       30.10F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    52  49  89 CALM      30.12R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      61  51  70 S3        30.04S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      52  51  95 S3        30.08S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    53  51  93 CALM      30.12R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     46 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A W23         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  54  72 S10         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  55  77 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  52  72 SW7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;990364
FXUS61 KBTV 290736
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The combination of a warm front shifting through the region today,
and a cold front following on Sunday will bring several rounds 
of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days with 
increasing humidity through the weekend. Locally heavy rain is
possible through Saturday, with increasing potential for
isolated flash flooding. Drier weather returns for Monday and
Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Thursday...Forecast for the next 36 hours 
remains largely unchanged from the previous days thinking with 
the highlight being an increasing threat for flash flooding due 
to wet antecedent soils and heavy rainfall. 

For today, low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will 
push a warm front over the region with showers developing across
northern New York this morning, and becoming widespread across 
the entire forecast area through the afternoon hours and into 
the first half of tonight. Instability is rather meager through 
the low/mid levels for much of the day limiting thunderstorm 
potential, but as the front begins to lift northward towards the
international border tonight, steeper low/mid level lapse rates
develop along with slightly increased surface instability so 
will keep the chance of thunder in the forecast. In addition, 
initial surge of PWAT plume of 1-1.5" moves over the region late
this afternoon through midnight or so, increasing the threat 
for some localized heavy rain.

Note a little slower northward movement of the front on the 
latest guidance this morning, likely bisecting the North Country
from west to east across central zones Friday morning, and 
lifting north of the international border around mid-day. 
Overnight shower and thunderstorm activity wanes a bit during 
the pre-dawn to mid-day hours before the region becomes firmly 
entrenched in the warm sector in the afternoon with some 
diurnally and surface instability driven convection expected to 
develop with the threat for heavy rain continuing to increase 
as PWATs rise to 1.5-2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Thursday...By Friday night we remain embedded 
within an anomalously moist airmass under deep southwesterly 
flow aloft. PWATS in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range argue for 
continue higher chances for showers and few thunderstorms. With 
lack of appreciable instability, feel the threat of heavier 
rainfall will wane somewhat but spotty heavy downpours will 
certainly be possible with any passing showers. Lows to hold 
quite mild in the 60s to locally near 70 in the Champlain and 
St. Lawrence Valleys. 

By Saturday another round of active weather is appearing more and 
more likely as deep moisture plume remains atop the area along with 
increasing instability ahead of an advancing upper trough and 
attendant surface front. Deep warm cloud depths and near-
unidirectional flow aloft enhance the potential for heavy 
rainfall and training characteristics will be possible. This 
will heighten the possibility for flash flooding, though given 
the mesoscale aspects of such phenomena it is too soon to 
predict where the highest threat will exist. It will remain warm
and quite muggy as afternoon highs top out in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Thursday...Evening showers and thunderstorms, 
some with heavy rainfall then slowly lessen in coverage Saturday
night as surface front pushes east. Lows remain mild in the 
60s.

By Sunday into Monday of next week longwave trough pivots into the 
area with several additional spokes of energy affecting the area. 
Airmass will trend seasonably drier over time as humidity levels 
drop to noticeably more tolerable levels. That said, will hold onto 
chance pops for a few showers in this period, especially during 
daylight hours when surface heating will aid to steepen lower to mid 
level lapse rates and aid buoyancy. 

By the middle of next week conditions appear to trend bodily drier 
as longwave trough departs east and is replaced by building high 
pressure at the surface and aloft. Temperatures should average close 
to early July norms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR is expected through overnight
hours with patchy fog possible at KMPV, then conditions 
deteriorate as rain showers shift into the region after 12Z.
Ceilings remain largely VFR through sunset with periods of MVFR
vsby likely in heavy showers, then after 00Z cigs/vsby both 
lower to MVFR. Winds should be fairly light through the period 
generally out of the south 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Likely TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 336 AM EDT Thursday...A very wet period is expected over 
the next several days with average rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5" 
forecast through Saturday night. With streamflow values above or
much above normal as of this morning, there is little if any 
storage available and much that falls over the next several days
will go straight to runoff. Any potential flooding 
Thursday/Friday will be limited in areal coverage, but will 
potentially set the stage for flooding Saturday and Saturday 
night by leaving saturated antecedent soil conditions.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff
HYDROLOGY...First

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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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July 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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