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SKIVT-L  July 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L July 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 1 Jul 2017 06:50:22 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (307 lines)

Expires:201707012000;;103628
FPUS51 KBTV 011039
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
636 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017


VTZ006-012000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
636 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms this morning, then occasional showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty
winds this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance
of rain 80 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely until
midnight, then partly cloudy with a chance of showers after
midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds until midnight.
Locally heavy rainfall possible until midnight. Lows in the lower
60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 70s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201707011100;;103368
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    67  65  93 E3        29.90R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    62  62 100 CALM      29.99R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    FOG       63  63 100 CALM      29.94R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  65 100 MISG      29.92R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       65  64  97 CALM      29.97R VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      66  65  96 S3        29.93R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    65  64  97 SE5       29.96R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       65  64  97 CALM      29.96S VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    68  67  98 S3        29.89R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      64  64  99 S3        29.94R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    68  66  93 CALM      29.95S FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     66 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A W13         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  66 100 SW5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  66 100 S13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  66  94 SW5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;103611
FXUS61 KBTV 011039
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
today into early this evening with some of the storms producing
torrential rainfall and strong gusty winds. The weather calms 
down significantly for the remainder of the holiday weekend with
just some lingering showers and isolated storms possible north 
on both Sunday and Independence Day. After very humid weather 
today, relative humidity values drop to more tolerable levels 
for Sunday onward into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 639 AM EDT Saturday...Quick update to massage pops and 
clouds per latest observational trends. Large area of showers 
with embedded thunder advancing steadily northeast into our 
northern NY counties as of 600 am and expect this activity to 
overspread much of this area through 800 am. Further east, 
mainly dry from the Champlain Valley east through mid-morning 
before things start to go downhill. Have a great start to your 
holiday weekend.

Prior discussion...
Well, a very active day is appearing more and more likely 
across the area today as the combination of a very moist airmass
with increasing dynamics aloft foster robust shower and 
thunderstorm development across the region. Despite rather 
modest lapse rates aloft, ambient shear of 30 to 40 kts aloft 
combined with falling heights and modest boundary layer 
instability ahead of an advancing pre- frontal surface trough 
should be more than enough to get things going rather early 
today (late morning onward). Indeed, we're already tracking a 
fairly strong line of thunderstorms across the southern tier of 
NY early this morning, indicative of the dynamics aloft given 
the current low end sfc-based instability at this hour. Feel the
main activity will fire along a pre- frontal trough axis across
the Adirondacks by late morning and progress into VT during the
early to mid afternoon hours. With such a deep and moist 
airmass (PWATS near 2") high WBZ heights well above 10 kft 
should inhibit the threat for large hail. Conversely, 
precipitation loading within convective cores and a decent wind 
field aloft is more concerning, leading an enhanced threat for 
microburst/straight-line wind damage in heavier cells. 
Additionally, some low level backing of the wind fields remains 
plausible from the Champlain Valley east ahead of the initial 
convective activity. This suggests at least a few cells may 
exhibit rotation this afternoon. While tornadoes are a rarity in
these parts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few discrete 
mesocyclones across the area today. Time will tell. All that 
said, the greater concern remains the potential for additional 
heavy rainfall and the corresponding flood/flash flood threat 
today/this evening. More on that below (see hydro discussion). 
High temperatures close to blended guidance offering warmest 
readings from the Champlain Valley east (upper 70s to mid 80s) 
where the potential for more partial sunshine should exist, and 
slightly cooler (70s) across the Dacks and SLV.

By this evening scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue 
across the area. Initial stronger convection from this afternoon 
should be exiting east, but additional showers/storms along an 
accompanying surface front will be swinging through our central and 
northern counties in the 6 to 11 pm time frame. This activity may 
also contain a few stronger cells with locally heavy rainfall and 
that will have to be watched in the early evening hours across 
northern New York into northern Vermont, but overall it shouldn't 
be as strong as this afternoon's storms. Low temperatures by morning 
holding on the mild side and mainly in the 60s.

A fairly decent day then looks on tap for Sunday as weak surface 
high pressure builds into the area with partial sunshine and 
seasonably warm temperatures from the mid 70s to lower 80s. We do 
however remain under the base of a central Canada longwave trough, 
and toward the end of the day additional shortwave energy 
embedded withing the broadly cyclonic flow aloft will encroach into 
far northern zones. This feature may spark a few showers or isolated 
storms across the far north toward sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 412 AM EDT Saturday...For Sunday night and Monday, our 
weather will begin to calm down after a very active period. 
Upper level trough will still be set up to our North, and will 
see a piece of shortwave energy passing to our North on Sunday 
night, and another piece on Monday. Will have chance to likely 
showers on Sunday night across our Northern zones. Then will 
have high chance pops again across our Northern zones on Monday 
with a little bit of likely in the Dacks. Best instability and 
dynamic forcing will lie to our North though.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 412 AM EDT Saturday...Surface high will finally begin to 
build over the region on Monday night and remain through at 
least early Thursday, dry weather is expected for these 5 
periods. From Thursday through the end of the week will have the
next shot at some showers and thunderstorms with a surface low 
crossing the region Thursday, with upper trough and vorticity 
advection Thursday night into Friday. The upper trough will be 
slow to exit the North country, therefore chance for showers 
continues right through Friday night. Saturday looks drier with 
another ridge of surface high pressure building. 

Temperatures and humidity levels will be quite comfortable for 
the first half of the week before warming back up with a return 
of a more humid airmass for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Active forecast period with widely variable
conds.

Through 12Z...Patchy IFR/LIFR vsbys/cigs in BR/FG at
KBTV/KPBG/KSLK/KMPV. Mainly MVFR/OVC at KRUT and VFR at KMSS. 
Winds light and variable.

12Z to 00Z...conds trend toward VFR with patchy MVFR. Increasing
threat of showers and thunderstorms from 14-15Z onward into the
afternoon hours. Heavy downpours and gusty winds possible with
stronger convective activity with enhanced turbulence and
MVFR/IFR. Highest threat from KSLK east from 16-21Z. Winds
generally south 5 to 10 kts with occasional gusts to 15 kts,
though locally stronger invof thunderstorms.

After 00Z...showers/thunderstorms taper off west to east leaving
mainly VFR under light south/southwesterly flow. 

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 401 AM EDT Saturday...Antecedent heavy precipitation on 
the order of 1.5 to as much as 3 inches over the past 36 hours 
has led to very high soil moisture levels across much of the 
area, near saturation in some cases. This has lowered 1 and 3 
hour flash flood headwater guidance to 1 to 1.5 inches and 1.5 
to 2 inches respectively. Additional rounds of moderate to 
locally heavy rainfall are expected across the area today with 
basin totals averaging in the 0.50 to 1.25 inch range with 
scattered higher amounts in excess of 2 inches possible. This is
quite believable given our anomalously moist airmass and 
admittedly concerning. Some differences do exist in placement of
the heaviest QPF among this morning's models with the global 
members slightly further north and west across northern NY into 
southern QE, while the majority of hi-res members place the axis
further south and east across the central Dacks into central 
and northern VT. This latter consensus, if it pans out would 
lead to further hydro issues. Per coordination with WPC a 
moderate risk of flash flooding will exist across our area today
and as such our current Flash Flood Watch will remain intact 
with this package. Persons in flood prone areas or near streams 
should monitor the weather today and be prepared to take action 
quickly if heavy rain occurs or rising water is observed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 401 AM EDT Saturday...A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory is in
effect for the entire lake today. While thunderstorms are not
imminent early this morning, the likelyhood of scattered to
numerous showers and heavier storms is high from noontime onward
into the afternoon and early evening hours. If venturing out on
the water today, please keep abreast of changing weather
conditions and prepare to seek safe harbor quickly should
threatening weather approach. Gusty, erratic winds and waves
along with cloud to ground lightning will pose a hazard to small
craft.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VTZ001>010-016>018.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG

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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
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