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SKIVT-L  July 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L July 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 6 Jul 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (245 lines)

Expires:201707062000;;364191
FPUS51 KBTV 060944
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
541 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017


VTZ006-062000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
541 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s.
South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower
70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 

$$


Expires:201707061100;;365781
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    71  56  58 S13G22    30.06F                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     61  55  81 E3        30.15S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     58  55  90 N3        30.10S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     55  55 100 MISG      30.11S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      58  53  83 SE5       30.14F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      67  55  64 S5        30.11S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     60  54  80 E7        30.14S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     55  52  89 CALM      30.17R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    69  58  69 S6        30.05R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      63  55  76 S5        30.10S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    63  53  70 CALM      30.15S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A S1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A SW24        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A S14         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     68  63  83 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  59  73 S13         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;360617
FXUS61 KBTV 060828
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give away to a series of fronts increasing 
our chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the 
weekend. There will be periods of breaks in the rainfall and so 
none of the days are expected to be a washout although brief 
locally moderate rainfall will be possible. Temperatures will 
remain near normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and 
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...Satellite imagery shows a few 
scattered clouds over northern New York with an otherwise quiet 
evening on tap. The light showers haven't materialized and the 
clouds have been tracking more towards the west than north so I 
went ahead and dropped the mention of showers overnight. 
Boundary layer winds are higher than the previous few nights so 
even through calm winds are at MPV/SLK I dont anticipate much in
the way of fog/br development overnight.

As the high pulls to the east the southerly flow should 
continued to pick up and bring a more humid airmass to the North
Country. I'm still a bit hesitant with how much in the way of 
shower development occurs this afternoon. An upper level vort 
will track through the North Country but the boundary layer wont
be saturated thus instability driven showers may not see much 
rain hitting the ground. The best instability will be over the 
Saint Lawrence so I kept mention of slight chance wording 
generally over northern New York. Equilibrium levels are colder 
than -20C and with the instability ranging 200-500 J/kg a few 
lightning strikes will be possible.

Expect with light warm air advection temps should warm into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Temps aloft support higher temps but we 
should see slightly more cloud cover which should negate how 
much we warm to. Cloud cover will remain increasing through the 
evening and so temps overnight Thursday night should be a few 
degrees warmer in the mid 60s across the North Country.

The challenge Friday is how much of the rain shield from the 
low pressure system that tracks to our south actually impacts 
the forecast area. Right now based on trends and the latest 
guidance I've kept 30-40% chance for southern Vermont but 
otherwise the rest of the North Country will need to wait on the
first of a series of shortwave troughs to move through in the 
afternoon.

In the afternoon Friday a shortwave trough will bring a frontal
system through and be the forcing for showers with embedded 
thunderstorms. PWATS are in the range of climo for early July 
and so I concur with the previous forecaster that heavy rain 
isn't expected. Shear isn't great nor are the mid level lapse 
rates that steep so I dont anticipate strong thunderstorms but 
with plenty of instability from the Greens westward there should
be some lightning that accompanies the showers. Based a few of 
the CAM models the idea of a line of showers and thunderstorms 
looks fairly likely and not a washout type day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 428 AM EDT Thursday...Rain and chance of thunderstorms 
expected throughout the short term as a weakening surface front 
moves across the North Country. Some residual CAPE and negative 
lifted indices Friday night have kept mention of slight chance 
to chance for thunderstorms. Expect associated 500mb trough to 
affect the area mostly on Saturday with SBCAPE over 1kJ/kg and 
GFS indicating lifted indices around -5C. PWATs of 1-1.3 inches 
could lead to heavy rainfall within showers/thunderstorms. 0-6km
shear around 40kts indicated by GFS along with steep lapse 
rates, therefore can't rule out any thunderstorms becoming 
strong on Saturday. The mid-level trough and surface front both 
exit east Saturday night leading to decreasing POPs. This will 
be followed by brief period of surface ridge axis for Sunday 
morning. Also much drier air filters in Saturday night as PWATs 
fall to around a half inch. 

Noticeable temperature change behind the surface front. Friday 
night lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. 
Saturday max temperatures reach the 70s, falling into the 50s 
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 428 AM EDT Thursday...Brief break in precip ends midday 
Sunday as another trough affects the North Country. As the 
surface, a front will bring showers but weaken Sunday night. The
North Country will experience a period of prolonged SW flow and
GFS showing PWATS increasing to 1-1.5 inches Monday night into 
Tuesday. Models disagree on exact evolution of features 
affecting the region, but agree on more precipitation on Tuesday
as broad mid-level trough continues to produce cyclonic flow 
across the North Country. Models also differ on when this precip
will exit east as the GFS is more progressive and brings a 
ridge of high pressure at the surface into the region Tuesday 
night into Wednesday. The ECMWF keeps the ridge further north 
and west in Canada for longer. Any break in precip provided by 
this ridge is short lived as another shortwave could arrive for 
the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...VFR expected for the next 24 hours. During
the late morning and afternoon Thursday there may be some 
isolated showers with perhaps a thunderstorm across northern NY 
however with confidence limited I've opted to not include any 
mention of showers in the TAF. Winds will be fairly quiet this 
evening with the typical drainage flow at RUT and southerly flow
channeling up the Champlain Valley. During the afternoon 
southerly winds will be increasing with gusts up to 20 knots 
possible, especially in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. 

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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