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SKIVT-L  July 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L July 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 3 Jul 2017 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (228 lines)

Expires:201707032000;;203021
FPUS51 KBTV 030803
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017


VTZ006-032000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Lows in the
lower 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming
light and variable. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201707031100;;209556
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    67  57  70 NW7       29.90R                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    64  56  75 SW7       29.94R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    62  56  80 SW3       29.92R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     58  58 100 MISG      29.87R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    59  58  95 CALM      29.92R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      62  58  87 CALM      29.92R                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    64  61  90 CALM      29.93R                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    57  55  93 CALM      29.92R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      63  58  83 SW3       29.89S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      62  55  78 W13G22    29.90R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     66  58  75 SW7       29.96R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A W7          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  59  82 W8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  59  77 W9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     70  55  60 NW6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;202389
FXUS61 KBTV 030750
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air mass remains in place through Wednesday. Temperatures
will continue to be seasonable for early July. The next chance 
for more widespread showers and storms occurs by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 133 AM EDT Monday...Line of light rain showers currently 
making its way across the North Country, currently light rain at
BTV. This area of showers will be short lived and continue to
push eastward over the next couple hours. These showers appear
to be associated with a shortwave passing just north of the
international border. 

Overall weather pattern will be quiet from Monday through
Tuesday with a ridge of surface high pressure building into the
North country. Another weak shortwave moves through the area
this afternoon and have mentioned a slight chance to a chance 
for some showers with this feature, mainly Dacks and along the 
International border in Vermont. Rainfall accumulations will be
very light and only slight chance of Thunder will be in the
Dacks and Southern St Lawrence valley with very modest surface
based instability. By 00z Tue any showers that formed will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating and vort moving out of
our forecast area. Monday night and Tuesday will be dry and
pleasant with upper level flow becoming Northwesterly and 
surface ridging in place. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal normals, upper 70s to around 80 for daytime highs and
mid to upper 50s for lows Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 346 AM EDT Monday...Upper level ridging and surface high 
pressure will keep the North Country under quiet weather through
the mid week. We should be quite dry aloft so other than a few 
cap clouds and mountain generated fair weather cumulus clouds we
should be mostly sunny. Temps should be fairly close to normal 
with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight 
lows in the 50s. Late in the day Wednesday the high will begin 
to shift offshore setting up warmer return flow under southerly
winds but the influx of moisture should only work to increase 
the cloud cover late in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Monday...As high pressure departs to the east 
anticipate a return to more active weather with showers 
returning to the North County by the end of the week. A weak 
upper level trough will spawn a surface low pressure system over
the Great Lakes. Guidance is all over the place with how this 
feature develops as several different options are depicted. The 
general theme however is that a weak low pressure system will 
lift a warm front bringing a warmer and humid airmass to the 
North Country beginning Thursday. A convergence zone sets up and
in the warm sector we see instability increase. This should be 
the setup for showers with embedded thunderstorms to move 
through the region late Thursday into Friday. Simulated 
brightness temps show some cold clouds tops however shear is 
weak and lapse rates are poor so I dont anticipate much in the 
way of strong thunderstorms.

We stay in the warm sector through the end of the weak as 
several impulses swing through the upper level trough. This 
should keep our chances for showers fairly active through Friday
night. By Friday night/Saturday morning the low pressure system 
swings the cold front through returning us to northwest flow and
a drier airmass.

Temps will be slowly warming as we head into the weekend due to
the aforementioned warm front and southerly warm air advection.
Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday with our 
overnight lows seeing the majority of the warming initial in the
upper 50s Thursday and mid 60s Friday night. The cold front 
drops temps back to near normal for the weekend with highs in 
the mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions for the 24 hour TAF
forecast period at all terminals. A line of light rain showers
currently pushing Eastward across the north country will bring
some light rain to BTV and MPV, ending by about 07z. For 
Monday, isolated showers are possible during the afternoon 
across northern NY but have not mentioned this in any TAFs at
this time, probability is fairly low. Surface winds tomorrow 
will be generally out of the west, but a transition to the 
northwest is expected mid-afternoon with some gusts 15-20 
knots. 

Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...While rivers, streams, and creeks 
continue to slowly recede, flows will remain anomalously high 
through the Independence Day holiday. Therefore, people are 
urged to remain away from creeks, rivers and swimming holes as 
the threat of strong currents can prove dangerous or even fatal.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Neiles
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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