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SKIVT-L  September 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L September 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 4 Sep 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (242 lines)

Expires:201709042000;;862019
FPUS51 KBTV 040802
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017


VTZ006-042000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Much warmer with highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers after midnight. Lows
around 60. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of rain 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201709041100;;867788
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    56  54  93 S6        29.80R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    56  51  84 W10       29.83R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    56  50  80 VRB7      29.80R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     55  55 100 MISG      29.77R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    54  51  91 CALM      29.80R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      54  53  95 SE5       29.83S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    56  51  84 W7        29.86R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    55  49  80 SE6       29.83R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      54  53  98 CALM      29.78S FOG              
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    53  51  94 W8        29.79R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    58  54  86 SW6       29.87R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A W9          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A W39         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  54  77 W6          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  55  77 W13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  55  94 SE6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;863291
FXUS61 KBTV 040823
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
423 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Improving conditions are expected today as a trough of low
pressure moves east of the area this morning. Clouds will
gradually erode as the day wears on and noticeably warmer
temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s to upper
70s. No precipitation is expected today...but a frontal system
will gradually move into the region tonight and Tuesday and
begin to increase precipitation chances...especially across
northern New York tonight and Vermont on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 209 AM EDT Monday...Other than a few lingering showers 
over northeast Vermont early this morning the threat for showers
will continue to quickly come to an end as the upper trough of 
low pressure moves east of the region. There is still plenty of 
cloud cover and we should see a better clearing trend later this
morning as flow aloft backs to the west and southwest. Warm air
advection to take place and this should allow for a more 
noticeable warming trend to take place with highs in the upper 
60s to upper 70s...which will be about 20 degrees warmer than 
Sunday. No forcing to speak of so will continue the idea of dry 
weather for today. The only other item of note is the channeled 
southwest flow across the Saint Lawrence Valley this afternoon. 
Flow aloft will also be increasing so should be able to mix some
of that wind down and looking at gusts in the 25 to 35 mph 
range during the afternoon hours. 

Tonight...eventually a front begins to move into the region. The
front is parallel to the upper flow...thus the slower timing.
Should see some showers associated with the front across
northern New York during the first half of the night...then
threat begins to taper off a bit during the overnight hours.
With southwest flow aloft and increasing clouds lows will
generally be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Little overall change from the 
previous forecast thinking as we head into mid-week with the 
pattern remaining quite active. The large scale synoptic pattern
will feature a broad upper trough digging into the Great Lakes 
on Tuesday and deepening into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The 
attending cold front shifts into the North Country Tuesday 
afternoon and evening with showers developing and the best 
threat for thunderstorms continuing to be across central and 
southeastern Vermont where decent destabilization looks to 
occur. Model blended MUCAPEs are modest in the 500-750 J/kg 
range, but co- exist with good deep layer shear of 40-60kts at 
0-6km supporting the idea of some strong to isolated severe 
storms. SPC's day 2 outlook puts much of this area in marginal 
to slight risk as well, so decided to include some enhanced 
wording through the daylight hours for the possibility of gusty 
winds and small hail.

As instability wanes going into the overnight hours the thunder
threat will diminish, but the slow moving nature of the front 
will keep scattered showers going across much of Vermont as the 
front stalls over the Champlain Valley while points westward 
should see less activity. Additional upper level energy shifts 
over the area Wednesday as the upper trough deepens over the 
Ohio Valley, and we should see a redevelopment of showers across
the area by mid- day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Active pattern continues into the 
extended period with the aforementioned upper trough continuing 
to be the main weather feature across the forecast area as it 
slowly moves through the Northeast, not exiting offshore until 
sometime on Sunday. Fortunately, the bulk of precipitation is 
tied to the surface frontal boundary which looks to shift east 
of the Connecticut River Valley Thursday night. The result will 
be abundant showers persisting Thursday, with more scattered 
showers Thursday night through Friday Night, and finally a 
drying trend going into next weekend as the upper trough moves 
east and is replaced by upper level ridging and surface high 
pressure. Clouds, precipitation and cold temps aloft through the
period will keep surface highs/lows on the cool side of normal,
continuing the recent trend of early fall conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Bulk of the precipitation has exited the
area early this morning with just a few spotty showers across
the area. Still seeing plenty of clouds with 1000-3000 foot
ceilings. Between 12z and 18z we should see the areal coverage
of the clouds decrease and VFR conditions are expected for much
of the remaining period with only high clouds expected. Dry
weather is expected for most of the time period...but some
showers will be approaching KMSS after 00z. Gusty southwest
winds are expected to develop this afternoon...especially at
KMSS with gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range expected through
about 00z before gradually tapering off.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Occasional SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory is in effect tonight into early Tuesday.
During this time period winds will increase from the south at
speeds in the 2 to 4 foot range. This will lead to choppy
conditions late in the day and especially tonight...most
notably over the northern half of the lake. Boaters today 
should be aware of changing winds today beginning with west 
winds early this morning...then becoming more southwest later 
this morning and then south this afternoon at which time winds 
will begin to increase and lead to the choppy conditions late in
the day and tonight. 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson
MARINE...Evenson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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