Expires:201709292000;;093295
FPUS51 KBTV 290741
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
339 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017


VTZ006-292000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
339 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and
variable winds. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. North winds around
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201709291100;;100111
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    50  43  77 N5        30.02R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    45  42  89 NE3       30.02S                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    43  41  93 CALM      30.01S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  40  96 MISG      29.98S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      40  36  87 W3        30.00S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    41  40  95 CALM      30.02R                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    38  37  97 SE5       30.01S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     41  36  82 CALM      30.00S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      40  40 100 CALM      30.02S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      40  37  89 W7        30.01R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     37  35  92 CALM      30.01R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     37 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A NW23        N/A  WCI  22          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  46  82 N3          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  45  76 NW17        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  41  66 NW13        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;094694
FXUS61 KBTV 290811
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another seasonably cool day. While the day will 
start sunny, clouds will increase later in the day as an upper 
level weather system approaches. Light rain showers are expected
overnight and Saturday morning. High pressure builds back in 
Sunday and lasts through the middle of next week, bringing 
plenty of sunshine and a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Friday...

remainder of overnight: few tweaks to temperatures. Saranac Lake
cleared out a few hours ago and their temperature has been in
free fall. Meanwhile clouds across parts of Vermont, as well as
warm Lake Champlain waters are keeping temperatures warmer than
previously forecast. Expecting a little bit of patchy fog across
northern NY, as well as some patchy frost in the colder
sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks. 

Today: Looking like a typical late September day. 925mb
temperatures of 6-8C indicates highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Plenty of sunshine, though clouds start to increase from
the west late in the day as a vigorous upper level shortwave
currently over the western part of the Great Lakes moves 
southeast. Could be a light shower late in the afternoon out in
the St Lawrence Valley, so do have some 20-30% PoPs for late in
the day out that way. 

Tonight: The shortwave moves across central NY, and with some
cold temperatures aloft (drops to -22C at 500mb), there will be
some convective showers, especially closer to the track of the
shortwave (generally the 'Dacks into south-central VT). There
will also be a weak surface low that develops and moves by to
our south. That will result in a light east flow across the
region and some models suggest a little bit of upslope
enhancement to the precipitation across the east slopes of the
'Dacks. Not talking a lot of rain, perhaps upwards of 1/3" of
rain in that area. Otherwise, rainfall totals will range from
0.10-0.20" across parts of the St Lawrence Valley southeastward
into south-central VT. There should be a fairly sharp cutoff in
precipitation to the north, with nothing expected by the 
VT/Quebec border. So it will be interesting to see if Burlington
will measure -- if it does, that will break our 18 days of no 
precipitation streak.

Also interesting are the temperature profiles. The latest 00z
guidance indicates that 850mb temperatures will be hovering
close to 0C overnight across the northern half of the area. That
would support a snow level down to about 4000 feet, with any
opportunity for accumulation generally above 4500 feet. When 
overlaying those snow levels with where the bulk of the 
precipitation is expected to fall, we come up with the 
possibility of a little snow accumulation (<1") on the highest 
peaks of the Adirondacks (eg: Mt Marcy and Whiteface). 

For where people live, lows will be in the 40s, and close to 
50F adjacent to Lake Champlain. 

Saturday: Precipitation comes to an end during the morning,
perhaps a few showers lasting until noon for southern VT. Clouds
will be slow to clear out, as typical in the fall. Model
soundings indicate a thin layer of moisture around 3000-4000ft 
which means a layer of strato-cu clouds hanging tough. Best
chances for sunshine will be northern and western areas for
mid/late afternoon. The clouds will keep temperatures on the
slightly cool side for the day, with most everyone staying in
the 50s. Might reach the low 60s in the St Lawrence Valley where
there will be a little more sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Friday...Upper level ridging with a surface
high pressure system will move into the North Country overnight
on Saturday. With the colder air from the previous few days in
place, once we radiatively cool overnight temps will fall into
the 30s for much of the North Country. The cold temps along with
calm winds overnight should lead to some frost formation
generally east of the Greens and over the Adirondacks in
northern New York.

Sunday will be a pleasant day to across the North Country as we
begin October. A broad dome of high pressure will keep the
region dry with only a few clouds across the area. 925mb temps
support highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Friday...The upper level ridge amplifies as the
surface high builds heading into the work week. We'll see temps
generally warming through the middle of the week and temps will
slowly begin to creep up back towards the low 70s by Thursday.
Thankfully the temps aloft won't be anything near what we saw
over the last week and so we can rule out another BTV heat wave.

The high pressure will keep the area dry through Wednesday with
partly cloudy skies under the normal North Country
October/November subsidence inversion. There will be plenty of
breaks however so we should see some sunshine.

As we move into Wednesday an upper level trough will move
through the Great Lakes region and bring showers to the region.
There's quite a bit of spread in the guidance and so exactly
when and how much rain will fall is beyond the scope of the
science but the generally idea is that by sometime mid week
there should be a decent chance for the North Country to see
some much needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Mainly VFR overnight but can't rule out
some brief MVFR/IFR at SLK and perhaps MPV if we get any fog to
form. Confidence is low, so at this point it's just a TEMPO
within the TAF. VFR area wide today. Expecting clouds to
increase late in the day, but ceilings will remain above 6000
feet. Should see some rain showers developing after 00z. At this
point just kept with VCSH.  

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several spots across the area now have one of the driest
stretches on record with no measurable precipitation or
precipitation at all:

For Burlington, based on records back to January 1884 here are
the 10 longest stretches on record with no measurable
precipitation:

1. 52 days from April 17 - June 7, 1903 
2. 25 days from October 9 - November 2, 1924
3. 23 days from August 13 - September 4, 1894
4. 22 days from February 9 - March 2, 1978
4. 22 days from December 16, 1917 - January 6, 1918
4. 22 days from February 17 - March 10, 1901
7. 20 days from October 5 - 31, 1963
8. 19 days from October 9-27, 1947
8. 19 days from March 25 - April 12, 1941

***19 days currently from September 10, 2017 through September 
 28, 2017. Last date of any precipitation at BTV was September 
 9, 2017 with 0.01 inch.

Burlington had 23 days from May 15, 1903 through June 6, 1903 
without any precipitation at all.

For Montpelier, this is the second longest stretch without
measurable precipitation dating back to June 1, 1948. The
current stretch of 21 days started September 8th through today.
Only January 2-February 1, 2003 at 31 days had a longer stretch
with no measurable precipitation officially recorded.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Nash
CLIMATE...BTV

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