Expires:201709302000;;147698
FPUS51 KBTV 301017
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
615 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017


VTZ006-302000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
615 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers this morning, then
partly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. Light and
variable winds, becoming north around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance
of rain 30 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy.
Patchy dense fog and frost after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable. 
.SUNDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in
the lower 60s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201709301100;;148051
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  49  44  83 N6        30.16R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  44  41  89 CALM      30.18R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  44  44 100 CALM      30.17R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     45  44  97 MISG      30.13R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      42  41  93 CALM      30.16R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   46  43  87 CALM      30.14R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  47  45  93 CALM      30.12R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    46  44  93 CALM      30.12R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    45  39  81 N5        30.19R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    43  40  89 CALM      30.17R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  46  90 CALM      30.07R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A E3          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  41  76 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  43  66 N12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  43  76 NW17        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;147679
FXUS61 KBTV 301016
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will move across southeastern New
York and southern New England early this morning, bringing
morning clouds and periods of light rain across mainly central
and southern Vermont. As the system exits, gradually clearing
will take place across the North Country. Building high pressure
will bring pleasant early fall weather conditions through the
first half of next week, with mostly sunny skies and a gradual
warming trend. The ridge begins to breakdown Wednesday night 
into Thursday, and an approaching cold front from the Great 
Lakes region will move through bringing our next chance for 
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 616 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains in good shape at 
600 am. Only tweak was to slow north to south clearing today by 
2-3 hours per latest satellite imagery and sfc obs. Otherwise no
adjustments needed. Have a great day!

Prior discussion...
IR satellite imagery and mosaic reflectivity reveals a well-
defined mid-level vort across s-central NY at 07Z, with 
associated weak sfc reflection (1014mb low) across central NY. 
Modest available moisture (PW values 0.6-0.7") and QG forcing 
bringing periods of light rain to the southern half of the 
forecast area during the pre-dawn hrs, but forcing will move out
of the region between 12-15Z, with gradual clearing taking 
place from NW-SE for the balance of the daylight hrs. Light 
north winds will keep temperatures seasonably cool, with highs 
this afternoon generally 55-60F. 

Strong sfc anticyclone builds ewd from the Great Lakes tonight
into Sunday, with mostly clear skies and light winds. Should
result in good radiational cooling, with areas of frost expected
across the nrn Adirondacks, as well as central and eastern VT.
Have issued frost advisories in these areas, with local freeze
warning for southern Franklin County NY and Essex County VT with
temps 28-32F in a few locations. 

Will see the start of a warming trend on Sunday with light S-SW
winds developing. Highs will reach 63-67F in most areas under
generally sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 435 PM EDT Friday...Drier and cooler weather returns for
Saturday night through Sunday night. Upper level ridging builds
over a surface high beginning Saturday night. Pretty good
radiational cooling will drop temps into the 30s. Some frost
formation is possible in the coldest spots of the Dacks and
Northeast Kingdom. Sunday will be a bit warmer with the surface
high remaining over the area. Temps will reach the mid 60s once
again, closer to normal for Oct 1. We should also enjoy mostly
sunny skies Sunday. Sunday night will be a couple degrees warmer
than Saturday night, but still clear and cool with lows in the
mid 30s to around 40, warmest closest to Lake Champlain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 448 PM EDT Friday...Forget about a feel of fall as we 
start off October. A mid/upper level ridge is slated to build 
north into the central Great Lakes on Sunday afternoon then 
build into the eastern Great Lakes by Monday afternoon with the
center of the ridge becoming located over the Carolinas. This 
will result in highs pushing back closer to or a few degrees 
above normal on Sunday and 5-7 degrees above normal on Monday. 
By Monday afternoon, highs in the warmest valleys could crack 
70 degrees under low-level southerly flow. Lingering moisture 
trapped under the inversion around daybreak Sunday morning and 
again late Sunday night/early Monday morning may result in 
patchy valley fog, especially near rivers. We kept in patchy 
frost as well for the coldest spots Sunday morning and again 
late Sunday night/monday morning given the light winds and 
sufficient low-level moisture.

Tuesday should see further warming as the ridge aloft 
strengthens and heights at 500 mb build to over 591 dm. With 
increasing southwesterly flow and ample sunshine, highs will 
push into the low to mid 70s in the warmest valleys. 

The 12Z operational ECMWF remains much faster with breaking 
down the ridge than the 12Z operational GFS, GFS ensemble mean 
and the Canadian Global models bringing a mid/upper level 
trough and associated surface cold front toward the area by late
Wednesday and blasting it through the area on Thursday versus 
the other models which slowly hang the front up north of the 
area on Wednesday into Thursday morning, then sink it south. 
Previous runs of the operational ECMWF were also slower. For 
now, we kept the bulk of the prospect for showers on Thursday 
afternoon into Thursday night and were slower to clear things 
out given most models show a slower progression of the front. At
this point, the best shot at any showers on Wednesday would be 
in the St. Lawrence River Valley and the northwestern 
Adirondacks. Given the contrasting air mass and support from an
exit region of the jet with the front, a few thunderstorms are 
not out of the question on Thursday, especially if the more 
amplified trough and quicker frontal passage take place. 

Wednesday should be the warmest day, with highs 10 to 15 
degrees above normal. Most lower valleys should reach into the 
mid to upper 70s and some could take a run at 80 if cloud cover 
is not too thick. I continued to lean toward the warmer end of 
guidance suggested by forecast soundings. At this point, model 
cross sections do not show a significant increase in moisture 
below 500 mb until late Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday's 
highs still favor the slower frontal passage and thus lean 
toward the warmer end of model guidance. By Friday, we still 
played numbers toward the warmer end of guidance but there is a 
significant spread in lows between the ECMWF MOS (45) versus 
the MEX MOS (61) at BTV. We continue to favor the warmer and 
less dramatic drop in temps at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...A mid-level disturbance over s-central NY 
will bring brief MVFR ceilings to SLK/RUT, along with very light
rainfall to SLK/RUT/MPV. Generally VFR ceilings elsewhere, 
trending toward SKC-SCT conditions after 14-15Z as low pressure 
tracks well south of the region. North winds 5-8kts during the 
daylight hrs today. May see some patchy fog tonight, with 
localized LIFR ceilings at MPV/SLK 06-12Z Sunday. 

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several spots across the area now have one of the driest
stretches on record with no measurable precipitation or
precipitation at all:

For Burlington, based on records back to January 1884 here are
the 10 longest stretches on record with no measurable
precipitation:

1. 52 days from April 17 - June 7, 1903 
2. 25 days from October 9 - November 2, 1924
3. 23 days from August 13 - September 4, 1894
4. 22 days from February 9 - March 2, 1978
4. 22 days from December 16, 1917 - January 6, 1918
4. 22 days from February 17 - March 10, 1901
7. 20 days from October 5 - 31, 1963
8. 19 days from October 9-27, 1947
8. 19 days from March 25 - April 12, 1941

***19 days currently from September 10, 2017 through September 
 28, 2017. Last date of any precipitation at BTV was September 
 9, 2017 with 0.01 inch.

Burlington had 23 days from May 15, 1903 through June 6, 1903 
without any precipitation at all.

For Montpelier, this is the second longest stretch without
measurable precipitation dating back to June 1, 1948. The
current stretch of 21 days started September 8th through today.
Only January 2-February 1, 2003 at 31 days had a longer stretch
with no measurable precipitation officially recorded.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ003-006>008-
     010-012.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ029-031-034.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Stachelski
AVIATION...Banacos
CLIMATE...BTV

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