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SKIVT-L  October 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L October 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 4 Oct 2017 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (255 lines)

Expires:201710042000;;342329
FPUS51 KBTV 041019
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017


VTZ006-042000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the
mid 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then showers likely after
midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph,
becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Warmer
with highs in the mid 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201710041100;;342600
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    58  49  72 S15G22    30.31F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  41 100 S5        30.37F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     38  38 100 CALM      30.33F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     42  42 100 MISG      30.34F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       43  42  97 CALM      30.36F VSB 1            
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      54  47  80 S3        30.35F                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     44  42  93 CALM      30.39F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       43  42  97 CALM      30.39F VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      57  49  76 S12G17    30.29S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      50  47  88 S7        30.32S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    40  39  97 CALM      30.41F FOG              
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W38         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  54  77 S23         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  54  88 S26         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  50  82 S15         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;342273
FXUS61 KBTV 041017
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
617 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and breezy conditions are expected today ahead 
of an approaching cold front. This front will cross the area 
this evening with scattered showers and possibly a few 
thunderstorms. Behind the front dry weather and slightly cooler 
temperatures return for Thursday into Friday before more warmth 
arrives for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 617 AM EDT Wednesday...Minor tweaks to sky cover and to 
hourly temperature/dewpoint trends as of 600 am to bring 
forecast in line with current conditions. Mainly noise-level 
adjustments, otherwise no additional changes needed. Have a 
great day!

Prior discussion...
The forecast largely remains on track for the area today as 
strong high pressure flattens and begins to sink slowly 
southward. This will allow a cold front to approach later this 
afternoon and cross the area through the evening and overnight 
hours. Decent flow aloft and ample boundary layer mixing 
processes should ensure a modestly gusty to breezy day once 
again, especially in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys 
where afternoon gusts should easily reach the 20 to 30 mph 
range. High temperatures will be on the seasonably warm side 
once again and generally range through the 70s with a few spot 
80F readings in favored warm spots. These values are a tad shy 
of any records however. As the cold front approaches toward 
evening scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms 
will push into our northern New York counties. Decent 
convergence along the front, aforementioned wind energy aloft 
and modest surface-based instability into the 300-700 J/kg range
will aid in good dynamical support along the boundary. As such 
I've maintained a narrow 2-4 hour window of higher pops (60-80%)
across our northwestern counties into the mid-evening hours 
where a few storms may be able to tap into the gustier winds 
aloft. Widespread severe weather is not expected however. As the
front sinks further southward models remain insistent that the 
front will lose it's gusto so to speak with the coverage of 
showers and isolated storms waning considerably. As a 
consequence only chance pops will offered across our southern 
counties later this evening through the early morning hours. Low
temperatures by Thursday morning generally ranging through the 
50s as winds abate.

By Thursday the surface front sinks southward into the Mid-Atlantic 
region as elongated surface high pressure becomes stretched east-
west from the Great Lakes into New England. Shallow stratocumulus, 
especially across the northern mountains should ensure a partly 
sunny day on average with no precipitation expected. Synoptic flow 
will remain west to southwesterly, so only a slight cooldown is 
expected as temperatures top out from the mid 60s to lower 70s - or 
about 10 degrees above early October norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Wednesday...The cold front becomes quasi-
stationary down near the Mason-Dixon line Thu night and Friday.
Still some low chance of showers late Thu night into early 
Friday over southern VT as a weak short wave trof moves by. Have
kept a chance of showers in southern VT per ECMWF and it's stats 
which has been consistent the past couple runs showing that 
solution. Temperatures near seasonal norms or slightly above 
with low in the 40s to around 50 Friday morning with afternoon 
highs mainly in the 60s as 925 mb temps around 11 deg C.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Wednesday...A rather active pattern is shaping
up for the long term with several chances of precipitation and 
another warm up with near record high temperature Sunday and 
Monday. Models timing and placement of weather features is 
reasonably close through Monday leading to average confidence in
the forecast. Model differences grow by Tue so confidence is 
lower.

Warm advection begins Sat with a chance of showers as a warm front 
approaches followed by a weak cold front Saturday night. With lots 
of clouds Sat, high temps will be mainly in the 60s and lows in the 
50s to around 60.

Sunday looks to be mostly dry and warmer as a drier WSW flow 
develops. 925mb temps rise up to 19-20C Sunday into Tuesday. 
The record high is only 77 on Sunday and 80 on Monday so those 
could fall if we stay dry. However it looks like there will also
be some rather significant subtropical moisture advection as 
the flow aloft becomes more southerly by Monday while a large 
high pressure system builds over the Atlantic. This could 
result in more clouds, showers, and cooler temps. Models are 
showing precipitable water values rising to near 2.0" and even
higher south with 570-dm thicknesses. Expecting highs in the 
upper 70s to near 80 both Sun and Mon at this point. Tue is 
more uncertain especially if some tropical cyclone remnants move
into the SE US or a cold front moves into the region and it's 
just too far out to know.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through 22Z, outside some 
brief MVFR/IFR in BR/FG at KMPV through 12Z. After 22Z cold
front will bring an increasing threat of showers and possibly a
few gusty thunderstorms with tops to 350 AGL. Highest threat of
thunder at northern New York terminals of KMSS/KSLK/KPBG in the
22-02Z time frame. Winds generally light south/southwesterly 
through 12Z before trending gusty into the 15 to 25 kt range 
thereafter ahead of the front. Some patchy areas of 
southwesterly LLWS in the 35 to 40 kt range also possible 
through the period, though mainly focused through 12Z at 
KMSS/KSLK, and after 00Z Thursday at KMPV/KRUT.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect 
for today for gusty south winds. Channeled southerly flow will 
increase slightly today with mean sustained speeds in the 15 to 
25 knot range by later this morning and especially this 
afternoon. This will create a light to modest chop on open 
waters and in bays/inlets with southerly exposures. Significant 
wave heights to generally range from 1-3 feet in these areas 
which may prove hazardous for small craft, especially those that
are non-motorized.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

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April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
December 2005, Week 4
December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
November 2005, Week 5
November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
June 2005, Week 5
June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
May 2005, Week 4
May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
December 2004, Week 4
December 2004, Week 3
December 2004, Week 2
December 2004, Week 1
November 2004, Week 5
November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
April 2004, Week 5
April 2004, Week 4
April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
March 2004, Week 5
March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
February 2004, Week 5
February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
February 2004, Week 2
February 2004, Week 1
January 2004, Week 5
January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
January 2004, Week 2
January 2004, Week 1
December 2003, Week 5
December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
December 2003, Week 2
December 2003, Week 1
November 2003, Week 5
November 2003, Week 4
November 2003, Week 3
November 2003, Week 2
November 2003, Week 1
October 2003, Week 5
October 2003, Week 4
October 2003, Week 3
October 2003, Week 2
October 2003, Week 1
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September 2003, Week 3
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June 2003, Week 1
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May 2003, Week 1
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April 2003, Week 3
April 2003, Week 2
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March 2003, Week 5
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March 2003, Week 3
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March 2003, Week 1
February 2003, Week 4
February 2003, Week 3
February 2003, Week 2
February 2003, Week 1
January 2003, Week 5
January 2003, Week 4
January 2003, Week 3
January 2003, Week 2
January 2003, Week 1
December 2002, Week 5
December 2002, Week 4
December 2002, Week 3
December 2002, Week 2
December 2002, Week 1
November 2002, Week 5
November 2002, Week 4
November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
October 2002, Week 5
October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
December 2001, Week 2
December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
November 2001, Week 4
November 2001, Week 3
November 2001, Week 2
November 2001, Week 1
October 2001, Week 5
October 2001, Week 4
October 2001, Week 3
October 2001, Week 2
October 2001, Week 1
September 2001, Week 5
September 2001, Week 4
September 2001, Week 3
September 2001, Week 2
September 2001, Week 1
August 2001, Week 5
August 2001, Week 4
August 2001, Week 3
August 2001, Week 2
August 2001, Week 1
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June 2001, Week 5
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June 2001, Week 3
June 2001, Week 2
June 2001, Week 1
May 2001, Week 5
May 2001, Week 4
May 2001, Week 3
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May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
February 2001, Week 4
February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
January 2001, Week 4
January 2001, Week 3
January 2001, Week 2
January 2001, Week 1
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October 2000, Week 3
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October 2000, Week 1
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August 2000, Week 3
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July 2000, Week 2
July 2000, Week 1
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June 2000, Week 3
June 2000, Week 2
June 2000, Week 1
May 2000, Week 5
May 2000, Week 4
May 2000, Week 3
May 2000, Week 2
May 2000, Week 1
April 2000, Week 5
April 2000, Week 4
April 2000, Week 3
April 2000, Week 2
April 2000, Week 1
March 2000, Week 5
March 2000, Week 4
March 2000, Week 3
March 2000, Week 2
March 2000, Week 1
February 2000, Week 5
February 2000, Week 4
February 2000, Week 3
February 2000, Week 2
February 2000, Week 1
January 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 1
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February 1999, Week 1
January 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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