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SKIVT-L  October 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L October 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 6 Oct 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (209 lines)

Expires:201710062000;;435796
FPUS51 KBTV 060726
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017


VTZ006-062000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
324 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers this morning, then
partly sunny with a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Highs
in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around
10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy.
Lows in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 70. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 60. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 70s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 70. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 

$$


Expires:201710061100;;443738
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    53  49  86 CALM      30.04R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    46  45  96 CALM      30.07R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    49  47  93 CALM      30.05R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  44 100 MISG      30.03R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    44  42  94 CALM      30.07R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    55  49  79 SE5       30.04S                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    49  46  90 SE7       30.07R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    49  45  86 CALM      30.07R                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  55  51  85 CALM      30.03S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    48  47  95 S6        30.04R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    49  46  90 CALM      30.09R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A W24         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     59  52  77 W9          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  52  72 W18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  50  77 E6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;436361
FXUS61 KBTV 060734
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
334 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will bring clouds and may produce a few 
light showers and sprinkles mainly this morning then clearing 
from north to south this afternoon. A warm front will bring some
more clouds and a chance of shower Saturday. A weak front will 
bring showers late Saturday night and early Sunday. Temperatures
will stay much above normal through the weekend possibly 
reaching record highs on Sunday. Humidity levels will also be on
the increase this weekend into early next week along with more 
showers early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Friday...Satellite and radar shows an area of 
showers and remnants of thunderstorms moving through Michigan 
into western NY and Ontario associated with a weak shortwave. 
This wave will move across the area mainly this morning with 
some light showers and sprinkles followed by some clearing from 
north to south during the afternoon. With all the clouds will 
lean more toward the raw model/NAM temps mainly in the low to 
mid 60s which are a few degrees cooler than the GFS MOS. 

Tonight heights start rising a warm front starts to move 
northeastward toward the region with some decent low to mid 
level warm and moist advection. As a result clouds will increase
from southwest to northeast overnight with a chance of a shower
by 12z. 

The warm front moves through the region on Saturday with a 
chance of showers mainly before 18z then breaks in the clouds in
the afternoon. NAM is more bullish on the shower chances and 
cooler than the GFS and a blend is a good compromise. Again with
clouds and a chance of showers will lean more toward a blend of
the cooler raw model/NAM temps in the lower 70s vs the 80 
degree GFS MOS. However if the front moves through quicker and 
we can get some sunny breaks before 18z we might trend toward 
the warmer side but without full sun find it hard to buy 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...Low pressure system lifts North- 
northeastward out of the Great Lakes region Saturday night. Warm
air advection with clouds,gusty winds, and increasing chances 
for precipitation will keep overnight minimum temperatures very 
mild. Temperatures will only dip into the upper 50s to mid 60s. 
Winds will be gusty ahead of approaching cold front, with some 
channeling effects in the Saint Lawrence and Champlain valleys 
overnight. Winds will gust to about 30-35 mph. Best dynamics 
will be north of our forecast area with surface low and short 
wave energy passing North of the international border. Best 
chance for showers will also be across our Northern zones. Best 
chance for showers is generally 06-15z. Sunday afternoon should 
be dry with surface trough already pass our area. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...The extended portion of the forecast
will feature more active weather, and lots of uncertainty. Still
have some pops for Monday in our southern zones with remnants of
Nate passing to our South. GFS and ECMWF in decent agreement
with handling this feature. Have likely pops in our Southern VT
zones. Then we'll have another chance for showers Tuesday night
and Wednesday with another low pressure system passing to our 
South. By this stage in the forecast GFS and ECMWF are not
nearly in as much agreement. Overall temperatures remain above
seasonal normals through the entire 8 day forecast, but trend
back towards normal at the end of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR cigs lowering to 3000-7000 feet as a
weak upper level trof moves through the region this morning 
with a chance of shower. Could be lcl MVFR with cigs just below 
3000 ft at SLK. Cigs will trend SCT lcl BKN this afternoon 
behind the trof. Light winds will pick up slightly during the 
day generally out of the west or southwest at 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Sisson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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