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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 11 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (249 lines)

Expires:201711112100;;238222
FPUS51 KBTV 111119
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017


VTZ006-112100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of snow showers this morning.
Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow
20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Cold with lows around 5 above. Light and variable winds. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Light and
variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 40. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 40. 

$$


Expires:201711111200;;238560
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  20   8  60 N13       30.57R WCI   7          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    12   8  84 NW7       30.50R WCI   1          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    14   7  73 VRB3      30.52R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     15   8  73 MISG      30.48R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      11   5  78 W6        30.47R WCI   1          
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    17   9  71 N7        30.55R WCI   7          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    15   7  70 NW8       30.51R WCI   4          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     18   5  57 W6G17     30.48R WCI  10          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      15   9  78 CALM      30.58R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      13   7  77 W5        30.48R WCI   5          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    16   6  65 NW7       30.50R WCI   6          
SUTTON*          N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     12 N/A N/A W10         N/A  WCI  -1          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     12 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     23  18  80 N13G18      N/A  WCI  11          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  16  74 NW16        N/A  WCI  10          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     23  10  58 NW13G18     N/A  WCI  11          

$$


Expires:No;;234406
FXUS61 KBTV 110934
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
434 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region this 
morning will build across New York and New England later today and 
tonight. Temperatures will remain chilly today, but lighter winds 
and mostly clear skies are expected. Temperatures will begin to 
moderate on Sunday. The next chance for widespread precipitation
isn't expected to arrive until late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Saturday...Synoptically quiescent conditions 
this period with strong sfc anticyclone (1038mb) across the ern 
Great Lakes our controlling weather feature through the weekend.
Pre-dawn IR imagery still showing abundant upslope cloudiness 
across n-central/nern VT and across the Adirondacks. Also seeing
some low clouds produced across the VT side of the Champlain
Valley, a function of a strong moisture flux from Lake Champlain
where water temperatures remain in the low 50s. However, as 
high pressure builds ewd across NY/New England, should see 
increased subsidence and decreasing upslope flow, allowing these
clouds to generally dissipate. Still looking at a chilly day, 
with 21Z 850mb temps of -8C to -9C. Highs should range from the 
upr 20s to lower 30s in valley locations, and only in the mid- 
upr teens for the higher summits. Winds will be on the decrease,
from 10-20 mph early this AM, to 5-10 mph from the N- NW during
the daylight hrs, and then light and variable tonight with high
pressure overhead. With increasing zonal flow aloft, appears 
we'll see some increase in mid-upr level clouds tonight, which 
will offset otherwise good radiational cooling conditions. May 
see temps level off late as a result. Overnight lows expected to
range from the single digits above zero in central/ern VT and 
within the nrn Adirondack region, to the low teens in the 
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Will see some moderating 
temperatures on Sunday with highs 35-40F range most areas with 
developing light south winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EST Saturday...As high pressure pushes offshore 
anticipate a return of southerly flow and increased moisture to 
the North Country. This should keep the floor from dropping out 
Sunday night on temps as cloud cover increases wind temps 
warming aloft. Expect lows to be in the high teens to lower 20s.

Monday should be dry and quiet as an upper level trough digs to
our south. We may see some flurries across southern Vermont and
perhaps some in the higher terrain in VT but there's not enough
moisture to see much in the way of anything that organized as
the energy aloft will be well displaced south of the forecast
area.

As the wave passes our winds will flip back to our of the north
although not very strong which will lead to another evening of
below normal temps albeit only by 2-3 degrees with lows in the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Saturday...High pressure returns Tuesday as
zonal flow moves in aloft. That will lead to a gradual warming
trend with temps expect to return towards near normal for the
work week.

The best chance for showers will be as a well defined low
pressure system tracks across James Bay and brings a weak cold
front through the region. Moisture is limited so it wouldn't
surprise me to see the front under perform in the Champlain
valley due to shadowing from the Adirondacks in southwest flow.
Timing is fairly consistent with that system as precip should
arrive during the overnight hours Wednesday night resulting in
most of the precip falling as snow.

As we end the work week a more vigorous system (972mb low in the
EC) will track across Northern Plains into Great Lakes. This
would bring moderate warm advection rain Friday-Saturday with gusty
winds and then on the backside we'd see some decent backside
bonus snow as the low tracks through. Given that is 7 days out I
would expect timing and intensity to vary quite a bit between
now and then but the signal does exist in both global models is
that there's a stronger system that should impact the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Still seeing some orographic cloudiness 
with upslope NW flow conditions across the nrn Adirondacks and 
central/nrn VT. Also getting some lake effect clouds (BKN- 
OVC035) at BTV associated with steep lapse rates and moisture 
flux from the open waters of Lake Champlain. Ceilings are 
generally VFR, but locally MVFR (2-3kft) at SLK with HIR TRRN 
OBSCD. As high pressure builds ewd from the Great Lakes, 
increased subsidence and diminishing nwly flow will allow these 
clouds to generally erode/dissipate by 12-13Z. Skies will be 
clear for the balance of the daylight hrs. Then, will see an 
increase in mid-level (10-15kft) clouds from west to east 
overnight. No restrictions to vsby are expected. Winds will 
gradually abate...NW 10-15kts early this morning, but decreasing
to around 5-7kts during the daylight hrs, and then light in 
variable tonight in vcnty of sfc high pressure.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are record minimum temperatures for Saturday (11/11) and 
Sunday (11/12).

November 11
                     RECORD      DATE       
Burlington,VT        16          1936
Montpelier, VT       10          1956
St. Johnsbury, VT     8          1956  
Massena, NY          11          1957

November 12
                     RECORD      DATE
Burlington, VT       15          1933    
Montpelier, VT       12          1976
St. Johnsbury, VT    10          1976
Massena, NY          14          1987

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos
CLIMATE...JMG

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