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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 8 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (271 lines)

Expires:201711082100;;090402
FPUS51 KBTV 081124
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017


VTZ006-082100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
622 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain showers likely. Light snow
accumulation possible. Breezy with lows around 18. Southwest winds
20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Blustery with highs in the lower 20s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 10 to 15. 
.VETERANS DAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light
snow. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of light rain or light snow.
Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 

$$


Expires:201711081200;;090818
ASUS41 KBTV 081130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 08 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     25  22  88 CALM      30.31R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    20  20 100 CALM      30.31R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     17  16  95 CALM      30.31S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     22  21  96 MISG      30.29R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      20  19  95 CALM      30.29R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      25  19  79 CALM      30.29S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     23  21  92 CALM      30.28R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    33  22  63 N6        30.29R WCI  28          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      24  22  93 E3        30.32R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      20  19  96 CALM      30.30R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     25  22  88 CALM      30.25R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     16 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     16 N/A N/A E10         N/A  WCI   3          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  27  75 S10         N/A  WCI  26          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  32  93 NW12        N/A  WCI  25          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  30  80 N5          N/A  WCI  32          

$$


Expires:No;;082951
FXUS61 KBTV 080831
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure in place across the North Country will
maintain fair weather conditions today and Thursday. Will see
temperatures moderate slightly today, with highs in the low to
mid 40s, and then into the mid to upper 40s for Thursday
afternoon. A strong cold front will move from west to east 
across the area Thursday night bringing a line of rain and snow 
showers along with snow squalls. May see a few icy spots on the 
roads for the morning commute on Friday. Behind the front the 
coldest air of the season will move into the North Country with 
high temperatures only in the 20s, along with brisk 
northwesterly winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 102 AM EST Wednesday...Tranquil morning underway across 
the North Country with ridge of high pressure extending from the
southern Great Lakes region enewd across NY and northern New
England. There is a mid-level cloud deck (5-8kft) across the St.
Lawrence Valley, seemingly associated with newd moisture 
advection from the Great Lakes, and Lake Ontario in particular.
Elsewhere, skies are clear. Good radiational cooling underway 
with mainly clear skies and light winds...looking at sunrise 
temps mainly in the low-mid 20s, except into the teens across 
the nrn Adirondacks and a few spots in n-central/nern VT.
Already down to 16F at KSLK at 1AM. 

Should see prevailing air mass moderate slightly with temps 
into the low- mid 40s for afternoon highs, and developing light 
south winds around 5-7mph and mostly sunny skies. Will see 
another good radiative cooling night tonight with ridge axis still
in place and mainly clear conditions. Will again see lows in 
the upper teens (Adirondacks/nern VT) to mid 20s (Champlain/St. 
Lawrence Valleys). PoPs NIL today and tonight. 

On Thursday, we'll see a digging mid-upper tropospheric trough
across the northern Great Lakes region, with a sharpening cold
front and area of low pressure across swrn Quebec/sern Ontario.
Any direct impacts from this system will hold off until 
late Thursday evening/Thursday night, but P-gradient will 
induce somewhat stronger south winds of 10-15 mph, especially in
the Champlain Valley on Thursday afternoon. This should push 
temps a bit warmer as well, mainly into the mid-upr 40s for 
valley locations. Will also see an increase in mid-upr level 
clouds, resulting in filtered sunshine especially during the 
afternoon hrs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EST Wednesday...Coldest airmass of the early winter 
season is poised to move across our cwa during this time period
and a few of us who live at 44 degrees north latitude to 
experience winter are extremely excited. Models in very good 
agreement showing potent 5h energy diving southeast associated 
with digging mid/upper level trof...while sharp modified arctic 
boundary is approaching the SLV by 00z. This cold front will 
quickly sweep across our cwa on Thursday Night...with a period 
of rain/snow showers...along with a few embedded snow 
squalls...especially over northern NY/VT. 

The locally developed snow squall parameter shows values 5-7 
between 03-09z Friday...indicating good instability, moisture, 
and lift is present. NAM12/4km show sfc based CAPE values btwn 
125 and 150 J/kg...with sharp convergence...and strong 925mb 
fgen forcing to enhance lift...while pw values range btwn 0.25 
and 0.50. All these parameter support the idea of some embedded 
snow squalls associated with arctic boundary on Thursday 
Night...so have continued with +SW for northern NY into parts of
central/northern VT. Initially boundary layer temps will 
support a mix of rain/snow in the valleys with progged snow 
levels around 2000 feet...before quickly crashing behind 
boundary. As quickly as snow level drop to the valley 
flow...deep layer moisture is rapidly shifting east and llvls 
are drying out on gusty west to northwest winds. Bottom line 
expect an inch or two of snow above 1000 feet and a dusting to 
maybe an inch in the valleys by early Friday morning. A few 
slippery spots are possible during the Friday morning commute 
with some black ice and snow covered roads. 

The combination of 6 to 7 mb 3hr pres rise couplet and deep 
layer mixing behind boundary...will support gusty winds btwn 25 
and 35 mph....creating wind chill values in the single digits 
and teens. Thermal profiles are very tricky with sharp 
gradient...but have temps near 0F summits by 12z 
Friday...associated with progged 850mb temps near -17c...while 
warmer valleys are in the mid 20s. Very little change in temps 
anticipated on Friday with brisk west/northwest winds 
prevailing...summits are single digits...with mid/upper teens 
SLK/NEK...and mid/upper 20s SLV/CPV. A few leftover snow 
flurries are possible in favorable upslope regions of the 
dacks/greens...but deep layer moisture is very limited. 
Expecting some lake enhanced clouds and maybe a few flurries in 
the immediate CPV off Lake Champlain.

Friday Night...Coldest night of the early winter season is expected 
as 1038mb high pres builds into northern NY. The anticyclonic flow 
around this system will produce northwest sfc winds...and given 
extreme lake/air instability expecting plenty of lake clouds on the 
east side of Lake Champlain Friday Night...which will keep our temps 
from completely bottoming out. Have adjusted lows on the warmest 
side of guidance...because of clouds/wind direction...but if high 
builds in quicker...we would see east/northeast drainage and much 
colder temps...close to record values. Current lows range from 
single digits SLK to near 20f BTV. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EST Wednesday...Unfortunately all good things must come 
to an end...as our coldest airmass of the season will begin to 
modify on Saturday into Sunday. 1038mb high pres crests over our
cwa on Saturday...before quickly shifting east by 
Sunday....with increasing 850 to 500mb moisture spreading from 
west to east. Progged 850mb temps range btwn -12c and 
-14c on Sat...supporting highs mid/upper 20s to low/mid 30s with 
summits in the teens to near 20f. Temps continue to warm overnight 
with progged 850mb temps between -4c and -7c by 12z 
Sunday...supporting a sharp thermal inversion as 925mb to 850mb 
southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop. Anticipating warming 
mid/summit temps with coldest values in the deepest/protected 
valleys on Sunday Morning. 

GFS/ECMWF show weak embedded 5h vort in the fast flow aloft along 
with some enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture advecting across our cwa 
late Sunday into Monday. Have mention chc pops for light rain or 
snow...depending upon elevation. Best combination of moisture/lift 
will be across southern VT...but any qpf will be very light. Both 
925mb and 850mb temps hover around -1c to -3c...but boundary layer 
warms into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Little change in thermal 
profiles anticipated into midweek with zonal flow prevailing across 
the conus. This will keep arctic airmass locked in Canada...while 
sub-tropical airmass stays south...providing us with near normal 
temps and chances for light precip every couple of days. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected throughout the
period for all TAF locations with high pressure in control. 
Mid-level clouds will continue to affect KMSS through mid- 
morning, with ceilings generally 6-8kFT. Mainly SKC elsewhere 
with light winds early this morning. Will see light south winds 
develop during the daylight hrs, generally 5kts or less, and 
light and variable wind conditions continuing into tonight. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Veterans Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
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August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
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May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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January 2002, Week 1
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May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 2
April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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February 1999, Week 2
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