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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (238 lines)

Expires:201711182100;;583240
FPUS51 KBTV 180829
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017


VTZ006-182100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
326 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then cloudy with a chance of
rain this afternoon. Highs around 40. Light and variable winds,
becoming south around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain
30 percent.
.TONIGHT...Rain. Lows in the mid 30s. South winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...Rain or snow in the morning, then snow showers likely in
the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in
the upper 30s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph, becoming west in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 17. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows
in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 30 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 30.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

$$


Expires:201711181200;;590949
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 24 16 71 S3 29.92F
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 14 13 95 CALM 29.95F
MORRISVILLE N/A 13 11 92 SE5 29.95F WCI 5
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 15 14 95 MISG 29.95F
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 12 10 93 SW5 29.93F WCI 4
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 23 17 77 CALM 29.91F
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 22 17 81 SE5 29.92F WCI 16
SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 20 18 92 CALM 29.96F
HIGHGATE* FAIR 21 17 81 E6 29.91F WCI 14
NEWPORT* FAIR 16 14 89 SW5 29.93S WCI 9
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 19 15 84 S3 29.91F
SUTTON* N/A 12 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 10 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 10 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 18 N/A N/A MISG N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 30 21 69 S12 N/A WCI 21
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 32 28 86 S17 N/A WCI 21
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 28 23 80 S10 N/A WCI 19

$$


Expires:No;;590757
FXUS61 KBTV 181125
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will pass through the region tonight into
Sunday with widespread rainfall and milder temperatures. Rain
will taper to snow showers on Sunday afternoon as much colder
air surges back into the area along with gusty winds. The
general weather pattern quiets down from Monday onward into much
of next week with mainly dry and seasonably cold weather
expected for the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 337 AM EST Saturday...Quite the variety of weather is
expected over the next 36 hours as deepening low pressure tracks
from the Ohio Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley by Sunday
morning. From a broader perspective the overall theme of the
forecast remains the same with thickening clouds expected today
before widespread precipitation arrives by early evening into
the overnight hours. Strengthening southerly flow and warm
thermal advective processes will push boundary layer
temperatures above freezing in most locales by mid to late
afternoon such that mainly a steady light rain is expected. The
only exception would be a brief period of mixed precipitation at
onset at mountain summit level and possibly across portions of
far northeastern VT. Given the strength of the synoptic
background southerly flow have generally downplayed this threat
however. Highs today to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s for
most spots with readings holding steady in VT overnight, and
falling through the 30s toward morning across northern NY as
cold front sweeps through.

By Sunday the cold front surges quickly across the remainder of the
forecast area, clearing well east by afternoon as the ~980 mb
surface low races northeast toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence by early
evening. Robust 3-hourly pressure rises behind the frontal boundary
should ensure a windy afternoon as steadier rains transition to snow
showers and flow trends northwesterly. Accumulations should be
minor, though amounts from a dusting to 2 inches will be possible
across the St. Lawrence Valley and higher terrain of the
Adirondacks/Greens by early evening. Using an upward adjustment
factor from 160-190 percent yields gusts into the 30 to 45 mph range
with highest gusts in favored westerly downslope areas of the
eastern Adirondacks and eastern Greens/CT River Valley. Temperatures
will take on a typical cool-season non-diurnal trend as highs from
the upper 30s to mid 40s will be reached in the morning before
values slowly fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s by late
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...Sunday night will basically be the
tail end of the system which brings wind and precipitation
earlier in the day. Snow showers will be ending though gusty
winds will continue. Expecting 20-30 mph gusts nearly everywhere
as cold air advection keeps the boundary layer mixed. Lows will
bottom out in the teens to 20s, so wind chills will be
primarily in the single digits. Will have some lake effect snow
showers on Monday in the Southern St Lawrence valley and
Northern Adirondacks. High temperatures on Monday will be about
ten degrees colder than seasonal normals, mainly 20s and lower
30s. Winds will remain pretty gusty on Monday and conditions
will be blustery. Winds will begin to slack off towards evening
with surface ridge building over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Saturday...Monday night through Tuesday night
will feature quieter weather. Southwesterly flow will bring some
warmer temperatures to the North Country. Fairly clear skies
with temperatures back around seasonal normals once again. A
weak cold front will cross the region on Wednesday and some
light rain or snow showers are expected, especially across the
higher terrain. At this point looks like very minimal impact.
Thanksgiving day will be cooler and dry. Flurries are possible
with westerly flow off the lakes, though nothing significant is
expected. Thursday night into Friday could see another weak
shortwave bring some more light rain or snow showers. No major
storms on the horizon at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR through 00Z Sunday with
thickening mid/high cloud cover as light winds trend
south/southeasterly at 5 to 10 kts (northeasterly at KMSS).
After 00Z Sunday widespread rain affects all terminals with
ceilings lowering to MVFR in the 015-025 AGL range in general.
Some occasional VFR may continue at KBTV/KPBG/KRUT. Winds
continue south to southeasterly from 5 to 10 kts (northeasterly
at KMSS) and will trend modestly gusty into the 13 to 18 kt
range at KRUT/KBTV/KPBG/KSLK terminals late.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Definite RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 337 AM EST Saturday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect
for today as southerly winds increase into the 15 to 25 knot
range by this afternoon and significant wave heights build into
the 2 to 4 foot range with a moderate chop. These conditions may
prove hazardous to those operating small craft, especially on
the broad lake and in bays/inlets with southerly exposures.
Gusty south winds will gradually abate tonight, though increase
sharply from the northwest by Sunday as a strong cold front
sweeps across the area.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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