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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 17 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (271 lines)

Expires:201711172100;;539664
FPUS51 KBTV 171129
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017


VTZ006-172100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
626 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy with a chance of snow showers this morning, then
mostly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows
around 16. Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain or a slight chance of snow in
the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance
of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain or a chance of snow showers. Little or no snow
accumulation. Breezy with highs in the lower 40s. Temperature
falling into the mid 30s in the afternoon. Southwest winds 20 to
25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:201711171200;;539687
ASUS41 KBTV 171130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    32  22  66 NW13G28   29.98R WCI  22          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    27  24  89 NW21G31   29.91R WCI  13          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    27  23  85 NW9G17    29.93R FOG     WCI  18  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  24  78 MISG      29.85R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  28  23  82 W16G22    29.86R WCI  16          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    31  23  72 N13       29.96R WCI  21          
RUTLAND*       FLURRIES  31  24  75 W12G18    29.92R WCI  22          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    33  25  72 NW10G18   29.88R WCI  25          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    29  24  79 W9G24     29.98R WCI  21          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    28  23  83 W17G26    29.87R WCI  15          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    34  22  61 W16G25    29.93R WCI  24          
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     27 N/A N/A NW14        N/A  WCI  15          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  30  93 NW22G32     N/A  WCI  19          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  27  80 NW29G35     N/A  WCI  18          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  25  74 W12G21      N/A  WCI  23          

$$


Expires:No;;540480
FXUS61 KBTV 171143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air will is moving into the region today with mountain snow
showers ending this morning. Sunshine and dry weather will 
return as the day progresses as a weak area of high pressure 
moves in. The next low pressure system brings another round of 
mainly rain possibly mixed with snow Saturday afternoon and 
evening and then back to snow showers at the back end of the 
storm. Also expect gusty winds for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 643 AM EST Friday...Forecast on track. Snow is ending in 
all but the mountains as drier air moves in on unstable NW flow 
so not expecting any additional accumulation except maybe an 
inch at the summits. Some icy spots possible on roads for the 
morning commute, especially across the wrn slopes of the Green 
Mtns where orographic enhancement and cooling temps will combine
the most favorably.

Sunshine should break out this afternoon as high pressure 
builds in across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. Winds 
remain brisk from the northwest, and this combined with air 
temps topping out in the 30s will create some wind chills 
through the day in the teens and 20s.

The high crests over the region tonight with clearing skies for
the first half of the night, and some high clouds moving in 
from the west ahead of our next system. Low temps a bit tricky
with some scattered high clouds and developing southerly flow by
morning but still expecting temps dropping into the teens and 
20s area-wide while warm air advection riding in aloft will 
keep the highest peaks in the 20s warming into the lower 30s.

On Saturday a bit of a complex warm advection pattern begins as
low pressure tracks from IL to near DTW by evening. Increasing 
probabilities of precipitation from SE to NE. Could be a couple
bands of warm frontal precip moving in by afternoon or early 
evening but should be very light until evening. Typical ENE St. 
Lawrence river valley channeling will develop with a bit cooler 
temps there but it's looking like the delayed arrival will 
pretty much ensure most of us see light rain with high 
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, but can't quite rule
out a few patches of light rain/snow mix at the higher 
elevations if it cools to the wet bulb and starts earlier rather
than later.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...Global 00Z models remain consistent 
in showing deep ~ 980 mb low pressure tracking into the St. 
Lawrence Valley Saturday night into Sunday with a variety of 
weather for the forecast area. This morning's 00Z NAM 
deterministic run showing a more pronounced southerly surface 
low track remains a clear outlier and has been discounted once 
again. With the anticipated low track temperatures will hold 
steady in the lower 40s or slowly rise into the mid and upper 
30s depending on locale into the overnight hours under 
increasing southerly flow. The only exception will be the far 
northern St. Lawrence Valley where pressure-driven channeling 
effects will likely keep stubborn northeasterly flow locked in 
much of the night as the low approaches. These trends are in 
close agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF MOS-based guidance
with a bit of our prior forecast thrown in for good measure. 
This supports widespread, mainly light to moderate precipitation
mainly in the form of rain overspreading the forecast area 
Saturday evening into Saturday night. Any light snow or sleet 
would be very early on and at the highest elevations of the 
northern mountains.

By 12Z Sunday the surface low should be situated near Montreal 
and will exit quickly northeast during the day pushing a very 
sharp cold front across the area during the morning hours. 
Impressive 3-hourly pressure rises from 3-9 mb immediately 
behind the front support persistence in showing winds trending 
quite gusty from west/northwesterly in the 25 to 40 mph range by
late morning into the afternoon hours. Additionally, given the 
tight baroclinicity along the boundary a band of briefly heavy 
showers will be possible with this feature. Highs to range in 
the 37 to 42 range during mid- morning across the 
Adirondacks/St. Lawrence Valley before falling by late morning 
into the afternoon, and the lower to mid 40s across VT before 
falling as well by afternoon. As colder air pushes into the area
some minor light snow accumulations will be possible across the
Adirondacks and northern Greens to the order of a dusting to an
inch or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...Sensible weather conditions then 
gradually quiet down Sunday night as parent upper trough pulls 
east and surface high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest 
and Great Lakes. Any lingering snow showers or flurries will end
through the evening hours as skies gradually trend partly 
cloudy and gusty winds slowly abate overnight. Low temperatures 
by sunrise Monday seasonably chilly in the teens to lower 20s.

After a tranquil though chilly day on Monday the typical up and
down temperature roller coaster cycle of November re-asserts 
itself into the mid-week time frame. The mildest day should 
occur on Tuesday as high pressure slides off the east allowing 
southerly flow to boost readings into the 40s for most spots. A 
cold front will then cross the area Tuesday night into early 
Wednesday with a renewed threat of light rain/snow shower 
activity. Behind this front conditions trend mainly dry from 
Wednesday night onward into late week under a seasonably cold 
late Autumn airmass. An early look at the Thanksgiving holiday 
suggests partly cloudy skies and dry weather, though on the 
chilly side with temperatures mainly in the lower and mid 30s. 
No large scale travel concerns are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Mainly MVFR with LCL IFR at SLK until
13-15Z then VFR as high pressure builds in. NW Winds will gust
20-25kts until late afternoon then winds go light/calm after
sunset with SKC. A warm front aloft will bring high clouds
perhaps as low at BKN100 at KMSS by 12z Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible late. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Likely SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Likely RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 640 AM EST Friday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in 
effect for today. Northwest winds at Colchester reef continue at
25 gusting to 30 knots and will continue through midday as cold
air pours over the 50 degree lake waters leading to a very 
unstable boundary layer hence the gustiness. Winds will 
gradually simmer down this afternoon. Anyone out boating will 
need to be aware of the rough conditions that will result from 
the strong winds.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Sisson
MARINE...Sisson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
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March 2006, Week 4
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
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November 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
April 2004, Week 5
April 2004, Week 4
April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
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February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
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November 2001, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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February 1999, Week 3
February 1999, Week 2
February 1999, Week 1
January 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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