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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 16 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (291 lines)

Expires:201711162100;;489843
FPUS51 KBTV 161128
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017


VTZ006-162100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
625 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy. Rain or snow showers likely this morning, then a
chance of rain showers this afternoon. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph, diminishing to around 10 mph this afternoon.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Rain showers likely until midnight. Snow showers likely.
Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. West
winds around 10 mph, becoming northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the
morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 30.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow
50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 18. West winds around
10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the
lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows around 20. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201711161200;;490009
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 16 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    44  34  67 S8        29.80F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  33  32  96 S10       29.89F FOG     WCI  25  
MORRISVILLE    MIX PCPN  36  31  82 S13G26    29.85F WCI  27          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  30  79 MISG      29.89F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    34  29  82 SE12      29.87F WCI  25          
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   44  37  76 S10G20    29.81F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  37  34  89 SE17      29.85F WCI  27          
SPRINGFIELD    FLURRIES  33  30  88 CALM      29.93F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    42  36  80 S12G17    29.77F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    35  30  83 S9G18     29.83F WCI  28          
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  42  36  79 SE15      29.84F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     37 N/A N/A S9          N/A  WCI  31          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A S23G43      N/A  WCI  14          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  37  71 S23G30      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  37  76 S33         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  36  75 S21         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;490796
FXUS61 KBTV 161148
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
648 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northwest of the region today while a
secondary low develops on the New England coast then moves into
the Gulf of Maine tonight. Precipitation may start as light 
snow mainly in the mountains and eastern Vermont, but will be 
mostly rain across northern New York and the Champlain Valley. A
wintry mix will persist across central and eastern Vermont 
until about noon, producing light accumulations and slowing down
the morning commute. Rain showers will change to snow showers 
tonight, with some accumulation primarily for the higher terrain
and along the west slopes of the mountains of northern Vermont 
and New York. Dry weather returns for Friday as a weak area of
high pressure moves in before the next low pressure system 
brings another round of rain and snow along with gusty winds for
Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 648 AM EST Thursday...No significant changes with this 
update. A warm conveyor belt will bring a few hours of light 
precipitation this morning as it moves from west to east. 
Surface temperatures have risen into the 30s and 40s especially 
west of the Green mountains but even east of the mountains are 
warming but wet bulbs holding below freezing east. So this will 
limit much in the way of any mixed precip and have used the RAP 
profiles to drive derived ptype from the top down. Looking at 
perhaps less than an inch wet snow/sleet from the Green eastward
this morning. Southerly winds will be gusting 25-35 mph, 
especially in the Champlain Valley as a low level jet continues 
this morning. Eventually warmer air aloft will win out as 
boundary layer temperatures warm enough that everywhere will 
turn to light rain this morning. Temperatures will push well 
into the 40s from the Champlain Valley westward. Some guidance 
suggests even near 50F in a few spots but all should get to 40 
or above. 

As upper trof and cold air aloft moves overhead this afternoon
and evening so character of precipitation will be mainly in the
form of showers. Freezing level will be right at the mountain
summits somewhere around 4000 ft during midday so no real snow 
accumulation much below 3000 ft. 

Tonight a cold front sweeps eastward through during the evening
hours with winds shifting to the west/northwest. An upper level
shortwave also drops down from the northwest just after the 
front. This feature will also bring a brief increase in deeper 
moisture. All the hi-res models continue show a roughly 6 hour 
period of time tonight with a strong orographic signal across 
the 'Dacks and northern Green Mountains. Expecting snow/snow 
showers to increase across the higher terrain. Latest models 
suggest the flow will only be modestly blocked flow (per 
forecast Froude Numbers around 0.6 to 0.9), so expecting the 
highest chances of snow showers to be along and just west of the
spine of the Green Mountains, but may just be blocked enough to
back the moisture up enough that even Burlington gets in on 
some snow shower activity and perhaps a dusting to perhaps the 
first measurable snow of the season here at the airport. Looks 
like 1-3" of snow will fall at elevations above 1000ft in the 
northern Greens and into the northeast Kingdom. At the mountain 
summits above 3000 ft several more inches are possible. The 
northwest winds will also be a bit gusty at times, probably in 
the 20-25mph range. Temperatures will be falling below freezing 
everywhere by morning with lows mainly in the 20s perhaps near 
freezing on Lake Champlain so any snow that falls will be icing 
up especially in the higher terrain.

The moisture and any lingering snow showers diminish quickly on
Friday and expect some sun by afternoon. High temps will only go
up a few degrees in the afternoon for highs in the upper 20s to
mid 30s with gusty NW winds settling down as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Thursday...The changeable weather pattern then
continues for the short term. We start the period with a narrow
high pressure axis traversing the area Friday night with partly
cloudy skies and light winds. Low temperatures generally in the
20s to locally around 30 in the Champlain Valley.
 
By Saturday a larger storm system will evolve across the eastern 
portions of the midwest and begin to deepen rapidly as it tracks 
toward southwest Ontario in the Detroit/Toronto/Buffalo region by 
early evening. Models continue to slow the arrival of precipitation 
associated with this feature, not unreasonable given the increased 
amplification of the synoptic background flow and as such have held 
back bringing steadier rainfall into northern NY by late 
morning/early afternoon, and into VT from mid to late afternoon. 
Boundary layer thermal profiles support a brief mix with wet snow at 
time of precipitation onset across the Adirondacks and northern 
Greens, but this should be short lived as increasingly gusty 
southerly flow will boost temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s 
for most locales as the day progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Thursday...Deepening surface low then takes a 
typical climo track into the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday night 
into Sunday with widespread light rains/snows along with breezy 
to windy conditions. Have discounted the 00Z NAM/GEM solutions 
showing an atypical track toward the Adirondacks. Given broad 
consensus among this morning's ECMWF/GFS/UKMET in showing a 
potential sub-980 mb surface center a backside southwesterly jet
in excess of 50 kts at 925 mb may evolve across the St. 
Lawrence Valley east along the northern slopes of the 
Adirondacks into extreme northwest VT by Sunday morning. A quick
look at GFS sounding profiles during this period suggest these 
areas may approach or exceed wind advisory criteria. Time will 
tell. As colder air pushes into the region behind the system's 
cold front later Saturday night into Sunday rainfall will change
to wet snows or snow showers across the much of the area with 
some minor accumulations possible in higher elevations. Low 
temperatures mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s with 
corresponding highs on Sunday in the upper 30s to lower 40s - 
typical November-type stuff.

Mountain snow showers then continue Sunday night before waning on 
Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Looking further out, 
a general progressive flow pattern will continue across the northern 
tier of states through the remainder of next week along with a 
fairly seasonal temperature pattern. After dry weather Monday night 
into Tuesday, additional rain/snow shower activity enters the 
forecast again by Wednesday into Thursday as northern stream energy 
tracks east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Mainly MVFR due to cigs this morning 
locally IFR vsby in -SN at MPV for another hour or two before 
changing to -SHRA as warmer air on south winds of 10-20kt pushes
into the area. Trend toward a break in showers and perhaps 
brief VFR midday then back to MVFR with a cold frontal passage 
tonight. There is some chance of precipitation lingering longer
into the afternoon at MPV with a coastal low forming near KBOS.
Locally IFR vsby in snow and falling temperatures aft 23Z at 
KSLK with a cold front working its way east to MPV and BTV 
03-06z with any rain showers changing to snow showers. Winds 
will shift to NW will increase with some gusts 20-25 kt by the 
end of the TAF period. Falling temps may lead to icy runways by
morning.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA, Slight
chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Definite SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 648 AM Thursday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect. 
South winds near 30 knots will diminish this afternoon. However 
this evening a cold front will move across the region. Behind 
the front, winds will switch to the west/northwest and increase 
again to 25-30 knots. Anyone out boating will need to be aware 
of the rough conditions that will result from the strong winds.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Sisson
MARINE...Nash

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
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May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
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January 2002, Week 1
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May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 3
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February 2000, Week 2
February 2000, Week 1
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January 2000, Week 3
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December 1999, Week 5
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