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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 25 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (278 lines)

Expires:201711252100;;936761
FPUS51 KBTV 251131
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017


VTZ006-252100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
628 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then cloudy with rain showers
likely this afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...A chance of rain showers until midnight. Mostly cloudy
with a chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A
50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation
possible. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation
possible. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds around 10 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Highs in
the upper 30s. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201711251200;;936678
ASUS41 KBTV 251130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    45  22  40 S20G31    29.62F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    37  27  67 S12       29.67F WCI  29          
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    27  25  92 N5        29.62F WCI  22          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  26  67 MISG      29.66F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      34  24  68 SE9       29.66F WCI  26          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      38  24  56 CALM      29.68S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     33  25  72 SE7       29.69F WCI  27          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     24  23  96 CALM      29.76F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      44  24  44 S12G23    29.57F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      36  26  67 S14       29.60F WCI  27          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     35  22  58 N5        29.70F WCI  31          
SUTTON*          N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A E3          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  32  61 SW28G41     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  32  61 S36         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  28  60 S17         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;937007
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As a cold front approaches the region today, scattered rain 
showers are expected. After the cold front moves through this 
evening, a few snow showers will develop across the Adirondacks 
and Green Mountains and linger into Sunday morning. A weak 
disturbance will bring additional light snow showers to most 
areas Sunday night into early Monday. After cooler temperatures 
for Sunday and Monday, milder temperatures will return for the 
remainder of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EST Saturday...for the early morning update, I 
incorporated the current observations into the "now" portion of 
the forecast. Temperatures still show a wide variability, with 
40s from the Champlain Valley westward, with 30s and some 20s to
the east. Gusty winds continue in the Champlain Valley as well.


The precipitation is moving into eastern Ontario at this time,
pretty much on schedule. Based on radar extrapolation, we'll
have the light rain showers into the St Lawrence Valley by 9am.
Made minor tweaks to the hourly PoP forecasts based upon the 10z
HRRR and 06z NAM3, but the timing did not significantly change.
Expect the showers to reach the Champlain Valley about noon and
eastern Vermont 2-3pm. Not expecting much in the way of 
rainfall amounts, with most areas less than 1/10" of an inch. In
fact, the band weakens as it moves east, so it will likely 
remain dry in southeast Vermont and the CT River Valley. Given 
925mb temperatures around +7C and a little morning sunshine, a 
few locations in the Champlain Valley should top out around 50F 
before the showers arrive. Winds will remain gusty in the 
Champlain Valley as well until the showers arrive. 

No question about p-type today. It will be rain, even in the
mountains, as 850mb temperatures are also above 0C. 

The cold front will be cutting across the area this evening, and
be accompanied by a windshift to the northwest. As temperatures
aloft and near the surface cool, precipitation will turn over to
snow showers and take on an orographic driven pattern with the
higher chances being across the western slopes of the
Adirondacks and across the higher terrain of the Greens and
northern Vermont. The approach of an upper trough will provide
the extra fuel to keep the snow showers going, and may cause a
little "blossoming" of the coverage area of the snow showers
late tonight. Guidance suggests that we'll have a blocked flow 
regime set up overnight, so at the very least, clouds will hang 
tough across the eastern side of the Champlain Valley, with the 
light snow showers being more focussed on the western slopes of 
the Green Mountains. Not looking at any significant 
accumulations however. Perhaps 1-2" at the highest elevations.

Any lingering mountain snow showers/flurries will taper off by
noon on Sunday, especially as the upper trough departs and we
have some weak subsidence develop aloft. Clouds will be slow to
clear however, except along the east side of the Adirondacks 
and down across southeast Vermont thanks to downsloping flow. 
With 925mb temperatures near -6C, most everyone will stay below
freezing, except for the lowest elevations in the Champlain and
Connecticut River valleys. Northwest winds may be a bit gusty 
(20-25 mph) at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...Another clipper, northern stream system 
on this persistent train with limited moisture yet as previous 
forecasters have stated...mid- level ascent and orographic 
forcing should be enough to squeeze out another round of light 
accumulating snows into the overnight hours on the order of a 
dusting to perhaps 2 inches, again most favored across the 
northern high terrain. Any accumulations in the immediate 
Champlain and southern VT valleys should be negligible at best.

Snow shower activity abating during the day as upper level trof axis 
exits with surface ridge moving into the area. Cooler than normal 
temps continue from Sunday but nothing harse with Highs in the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...It feels like a broken record but the 
extended forecast will be one largely of persistence as a quite
progressive, near zonal synoptic flow pattern will continue 
across the northern tier of the nation. 

The idea of occasional bouts of light rain/snow shower activity 
interspersed with brief periods of ridging and fair/dry weather 
still looks reasonable.

The next potential round of light precipitation still looks to occur 
on Tuesday night, exiting during Wed morning and again by next 
Thursday night/Friday as shortwave troughs and their attendant cold 
fronts cross the area. 

From previous forecaster...with the mean background flow oscillating 
generally about the westerly direction, airmasses will exhibit a 
typical up and down pattern though remain near seasonable levels 
with origins across the eastern north Pacific and southern Canada. 
This supports daiBanacosly highs mainly from 35 to 45 with 
corresponding overnight lows in the 20s and 30s with some 
variability, especially early in this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR across the region, and that will 
continue through the morning. Have low level wind shear at most 
locations through about 14-15z as southwest winds at 2000 feet 
will approach 40 knots. In the immediate Champlain Valley, 
especially BTV, southerly surface winds will continue to gust 
around 30 knots through much of the morning. Not expecting as 
much gusty winds at most other TAF locations. A band of light
rain showers will push across the region this morning thru early
afternoon. VFR ceilings inititally, but they will begin to 
lower to MVFR from west to east between 17-22z. Not expecting 
any significant reductions to visibility with these showers. A 
cold front will push across the region between 23-03z. As it 
does so, surface winds will turn northwest. Rain showers will 
begin to transition to snow showers, primarily across the higher
terrain of northern parts of Vermont and New York. MVFR 
conditions will hang tough at most TAF sites, with IFR ceilings 
expected at SLK. Not out of the question that light snow showers
at SLK will also bring IFR visibilities there after roughly 
04z, but at this point only mentioned 3sm. May also be some 
light snow showers after 06z at BTV that could result in MVFR 
visibilities. Confidence a bit low in that, so kept with "VCSH" 
mention for the time being. 

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in 
effect for strong south winds over the open waters of Lake 
Champlain through the morning. South winds of 20 to 30 knots are
expected, with some stronger gusts this morning. Winds will
begin to diminish during the afternoon. With the sustained 
duration of the strong winds since late Friday, hazardous wave 
conditions will continue for much of the day, even after the
winds diminish. A cold front passage this evening will result in
a wind shift to the west and northwest.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash
MARINE...Nash

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
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November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
December 2005, Week 4
December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
February 2004, Week 5
February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
February 2004, Week 2
February 2004, Week 1
January 2004, Week 5
January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
January 2004, Week 2
January 2004, Week 1
December 2003, Week 5
December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
December 2003, Week 2
December 2003, Week 1
November 2003, Week 5
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November 2003, Week 3
November 2003, Week 2
November 2003, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 3
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May 2003, Week 1
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March 2003, Week 3
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February 2003, Week 3
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December 2002, Week 2
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November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
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July 2002, Week 2
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June 2002, Week 5
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June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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December 2001, Week 1
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November 2001, Week 1
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June 2001, Week 3
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June 2001, Week 1
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May 2001, Week 3
May 2001, Week 2
May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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