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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 26 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (269 lines)

Expires:201711262100;;984866
FPUS51 KBTV 261146
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017


VTZ006-262100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
644 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. A
50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Snow showers likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches.
Lows in the lower 20s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Highs in the
upper 20s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 16. West winds around
10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Highs in
the lower 40s. Chance of snow 30 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Snow or rain showers likely. Highs in the upper 30s.
Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 

$$


Expires:201711261200;;984423
ASUS41 KBTV 261130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 26 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  34  31  88 N10G18    29.77R VSB 1   WCI  26  
MONTPELIER     FLURRIES  32  31  96 NW7       29.73R WCI  26          
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  32  31  96 CALM      29.68F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   35  32  87 NW5       29.74R WCI  31          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  31  82 N6        29.72R WCI  31          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    40  30  67 NW5       29.72R                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  32  32 100 NW3       29.77R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  32  31  96 NW5       29.70R WCI  27          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    38  32  79 SW6       29.75R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A W3          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     36  32  87 N12G20      N/A  WCI  27          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  32  81 N22         N/A  WCI  27          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  34  87 N7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;978498
FXUS61 KBTV 260858
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few morning snow showers across northern areas of Vermont and
New York will give way to a mostly cloudy and colder Sunday,
with highs only in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A weak weather
system will bring additional snow showers to most areas tonight,
with minor accumulations expected across higher elevations.
Monday will be another seasonably chilly day. However the rest
of the week will feature milder temperatures, with no
significant precipitation until late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Cold front has pushed east of the
forecast area, with temperatures slowly falling but stil above
freezing at lower elevations (and still the lower 40s in south-
central Vermont). Radar shows scattered returns, primarily
across the northern half of the area. Based on observations and
webcams, most of what is falling is light snow.  At upper 
levels, the fast moving shortwave is clearly evident in water 
vapor imagery with it's axis across the St Lawrence Valley. IR
satellite imagery shows some colder cloud tops just east of the
trough. These colder clouds suggest where the better coverage of
snow showers are. Continue to make minor adjustments to the
hourly PoP forecasts by using the latest hi-res models (HRRR,
RAP, BTV4km, NAM3km) to show where the better chances of
precipitation will be. Basically it's the higher elevations of
northern VT and NY. Precipitation amounts are quite light, less
than 0.10 liquid equivalent, so we really aren't talking about
much snow.  

As the shortwave moves east during the morning, snow showers
across the higher terrain will come to an end by mid-day. All in
all perhaps 1-2" at higher elevation across northern Vermont and
New York. Not expecting anything for south-central VT and into 
the CT River Valley. Will have some breaks of sunshine, but in 
general, more clouds than sun. Highs only in the lower to mid 
30s as 925mb temperatures will be in the -6C to -9C range. 
Northwest winds will be a bit breezy at times, with gusts 20-30 
mph. 

00Z guidance still locked in on a weak mid level trough and
related weak surface low moving through tonight. The trough can
be seen on water vapor imagery over northwest Ontario and 
rapidly dropping southeast. Forerunner mid/high clouds will be 
reaching the St Lawrence Valley by sunset, with light snow 
developing between 5-7pm. This light snow should quickly 
overspread the entire region during mid to late evening. Not a 
lot of moisture with this system, so thinking a coating to 1" at
lower elevations. A little bit of orographic enhancement across
the western slopes of the Adirondacks and central/northern 
Green Mountains should produce upwards of 2-3" at higher 
elevations. As the disturbance moves through overnight, surface 
winds will turn more south/southwest in direction, but then flip
back to the northwest Monday morning. The northwest flow will
keep a few light snow showers/flurries going until early
afternoon across the high terrain of northern and northeast
Vermont. No real change in airmass with and behind the weak 
system. 925mb temperatures still running -6C to -9C, so another
day with highs only in the low-mid 30s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 239 AM EST Sunday...A generally dry period of weather with
temps starting out chilly...but quickly warming to above normal
values on Tues into Tues Night. 1025mb high pres will be
directly overhead at 00z Tues...with mainly clear skies and
light winds...allowing temps to quickly fall early Monday Night.
However...southerly winds develop aft 06z and increasing 1000 to
500mb rh progs...suggest mid/upper lvl clouds overspread the
region in developing waa pattern. Thinking coldest values east
of the green mtns with readings from near 10f to lower 20s on
Monday Night. Strong 850mb winds of 45 to 55 knots from the
southwest develop on Tues...helping to enhance llvl waa. Progged
850mb temps warm btwn 5-7c by 00z Weds...but local soundings
show mixing only to 925mb or so...associated with low sun angle
and clouds. Very similar to Saturday...thinking highs range from
mid 40s to lower 50s in warmest valleys locations with breezy
south/southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts 30 to 35 mph. On
Tuesday Night into Weds...short wave energy and associated 5h
trof approach our region...but deep layer moisture with
boundary/energy is limited. Have continued to mention chc pops
with highest values of the northern dacks thru 12z Weds. Temps
will be tricky based on fropa timing...but kept very close to
machine values...mainly 30s mountains to lower 40s valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 239 AM EST Sunday...The long term pattern will feature
changeable thermal profiles as fast westerly flow aloft prevails
across the northern CONUS into next weekend. Weak short wave
energy and associated ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh quickly
pass from west to east across our cwa on Weds morning...with a
chance of rain/snow showers. QPF/POPS will be light and mainly
confined to the northern Dacks/Greens on Weds AM. Modest caa
develops on northwest 925mb to 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots
Weds into Thurs...as progged 850mb temps range btwn -4c and -7c.
These values support highs mainly in the 30s mountains to lower
40s warmer valleys on Weds. 1030mb surface high builds directly
overhead on Weds Night...with clear skies and light
winds...providing excellent cooling conditions. Expecting lows
in the teens to mid 20s with dry conditions. 

Next synoptic scale system approaches the region late Friday
into Saturday...with another period of precip likely. Initially
our cwa looks to be well established in the warm sector with
progged 925mb to 850mb temps well above 0c...associated with
deep south/southwest flow at mid/upper levels. Latest models
trends have been to show a much more progressive
system...especially off the 00z ECMWF/GEM solutions. Have
followed their idea and cutback likely pops to Friday only
entire cwa...then focused the highest pops in the trrn Friday
Night into Saturday. Latest trends shows system becoming closed
off from the flow aloft to our east late Sat into Sunday...with
developing northwest flow and modest caa by next weekend. As
925mb to 850mb thermal profiles become cold enough to support
snow...best deep layer moisture is shifting to our east and
precip will become mainly trrn focused. Still some uncertainty
on precip arrival and ending times...along with large scale
synoptic pattern...so continue to monitor for future
adjustments in the forecast. Overall pattern will feature above
normal temps with highs in the 40s to near 50f possible on
Thursday...with lows mainly in the 20s and 30s...some slightly
cooler readings develop by next weekend behind boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...large range of conditions at the current
time, and this will be the situation for the next 12 hours or
so. In general, MVFR to local IFR with snow showers across 
northern areas through about 12-14z. Most terminals should see a
period of VFR mid-day Sunday, though ceilings of 3500-5000ft
will mean higher mountains will remain obscured. By Sunday
evening, light snow will develop from west to east, with
conditions falling to MVFR and probably IFR just prior to 06z
Monday. Expect some northwest winds to gust 19-23kt through mid
afternoon. 

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos/Nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Nash

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
October 2010, Week 4
October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
September 2010, Week 5
September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
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March 2006, Week 1
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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May 2001, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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January 2001, Week 3
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