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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 27 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (257 lines)

Expires:201711272100;;032742
FPUS51 KBTV 271115
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
613 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017


VTZ006-272100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
613 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely this morning, then a
chance of flurries this afternoon. Additional snow accumulation a
dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Colder with
lows around 9 above. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph until midnight,
becoming light and variable. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs around 40. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 20. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 30. 
.FRIDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs around 40. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...A chance of snow or rain showers likely. Lows in the
upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the
mid 30s. Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 

$$


Expires:201711271200;;033108
ASUS41 KBTV 271130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON NOV 27 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  35  28  75 NW16      29.83R WCI  25          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  28  28 100 NW8       29.82R VSB 3/4 WCI  20  
LYNDONVILLE*   MIX PCPN  25  24  94 W3        29.77R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  29  89 CALM      29.82R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  28  75 W5        29.82R WCI  32          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    36  27  69 W7        29.80R WCI  30          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    30  25  83 CALM      29.86R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  28  26  93 NW6G16    29.79R WCI  21          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    36  26  67 SW5       29.84R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  30  86 N12G18      N/A  WCI  25          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  32  87 N20         N/A  WCI  25          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  32  93 E7          N/A  WCI  28          

$$


Expires:No;;032452
FXUS61 KBTV 271110
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
610 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep across the North Country this morning
with scattered snow showers and breezy northwest winds.
Additional light snow accumulations will be confined to the
northern Adirondacks and Green Mountains. The coldest night of
this early winter season occurs tonight with lows ranging from
the single digits to upper teens depending upon location. On
Tuesday breezy southerly winds will push temperatures back into
the mid 30s to mid 40s with dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 602 AM EST Monday...Sfc boundary currently located from
Star Lake to Burlington to Lyndonville with general movement to
the southeast. Boundary has a brief period of light snow shower
activity along with a wind shift to the northwest. Have updated
forecast to capture latest temp trends as we have bumped to 35f
before fropa...but expect temps to drop 2 to 4 degrees behind
cold front and remain nearly steady this aftn. Also...based on
current radar trends have tried to capture pops/qpf along
fropa...and decreased areal coverage of trrn focused snow shower
activity this morning...as low level drying will continue on
brisk northwest winds. Still anticipating some upslope snow
shower activity and have mention likely pops northern dacks and
western slopes from Mt Allen to Mansfield to Jay Peak thru
15/16z. Accumulations will be light...maybe a fluffy inch or so. 

Water vapor shows short wave energy approaching the SLV this 
morning with some enhanced/cooling cloud tops over northern NY 
ahead of surface cold front. This boundary will quickly sweep 
across our cwa by this mid morning with wind shifting to the 
northwest and becoming breezy at times today. As winds shift to 
the northwest...expect trrn driven snow showers to develop over 
the dacks into parts of the northern/central Green Mountains 
this morning...with maybe some localized enhancement off Lake 
Champlain. Local 2km/4km and HRRR show weak composite 
reflectivity returns across the eastern CPV this morning...with 
sounding data indicating some lake induced instability with 
capes of 100-200 j/kg and leftover moisture from surface thru 
750mb. However...subsidence inversion and deep layer 
drying...which is already noticeable on water vapor will limit 
qpf/snowfall...even in the mountains. Given favorable 975mb to 
850mb flow btwn 290 to 320 degrees of 25 to 35 knots...good 
moisture in the dendritic snow growth...and modest llvl caa 
squeezing out remaining moisture...thinking an additional 
dusting to 2 or 3 inches is likely in the northern dacks/green 
mountains this morning. Depth of moisture decreases this aftn 
with areal coverage of mtn snow showers turning to flurries. 
Temps today are tricky with timing of boundary in the morning 
and developing llvl caa on breezy northwest winds this aftn. 
Thinking early morning highs in the l/m 30s cpv/lower ct river 
valley...before temps drop back into the 20s...with mainly 20s 
dacks into the nek...and single digits values at summits by this
aftn. 

Tonight...1028mb surface high pres builds directly
overhead...but soundings continue to show some low level
moisture trapped below subsidence inversion thru 03z. How
quickly do temps fall before southerly winds develop and high
level clouds increase toward 12z Tuesday. Current thinking is
with fresh snow cover...light winds...and window of clear skies
btwn 03-09z...temps will range from the single digits NEK/SLK to
mid/upper teens in the CPV. 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles show
llvl waa developing aft 06z tonight...so anticipate mid/upper
level slopes to warm from the single digits/lower teens into the
upper teens/lower 20s by daybreak...which is covered in latest
rec forecast. 

Mid/upper lvl ridge builds across the ne conus on Tuesday with
strong llvl waa on 850mb southwest jet of 45 to 55 knots. This
jet helps to push progged 850mb temps above 0c...with gusty
south/southwest sfc winds. Expecting localized gusts in areas of
aligned flow across the cpv/slv up to 30 knots. Soundings
support limited mixing of winds and temps...so will mention
highs in the mid/upper 30s eastern VT valleys to mid/upper 40s
slv/cpv and parts of the dacks. Moisture/dynamics with our next
system stays to our west...so anticipate a dry forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 405 AM EST Monday...Upper trough axis pushes across the
area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With this we will
be seeing increasing precipitation chances across the area,
mainly across the northern counties. With the south to southwest
flow and increasing clouds Tuesday night temperatures will not
fall significantly and thus much of northern New York and
western Vermont will stay warm enough for the majority of any
precipitation to fall in the form of rain with light snow east
of the Green Mountains. Eastern Vermont will not see clouds move
in quick enough to stop temps from dropping back below freezing.
With that, NEK could see some freezing precipitation in the
predawn hours, but amounts will all be well under 0.10". After
the upper trough finally moves across the area later Wednesday
morning, northwest flow aloft quickly develops during the
afternoon. Precipitation should taper off by the afternoon with
only higher terrain seeing some spotty activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 405 AM EST Monday...High pressure builds in the from the
west on Thursday for dry weather and temperatures a few degrees
above normal as high is building in from the west versus the
northwest. A more pronounced upper trough develops upstream and
moves into the region Friday into Saturday. Precipitation will
become fairly widespread across the area during this time
period. Though the system is warm and bulk of precipitation on
Friday will start as snow in the early morning hours before
quickly turning to rain late morning. The rain will transition
back to rain and snow Friday night into Saturday. System moves
far enough east Saturday night into Sunday with a large high
pressure system building into the region. Dry weather is
expected on Sunday and once again the high is mainly building in
from the west bringing with it above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...MVFR conditions cont at btv/slk/rut with 
vfr at mpv/mss and pbg. A brief 15 to 30 min window of ifr in 
snow shower activity with vis btwn 1-3sm in possible at slk/mpv 
this morning. MVFR cigs with scattered snow showers will 
continue thru 16z at slk/mpv...before slowly improving. 
Otherwise...vfr at all sites thru 12z Tuesday...with breezy 
northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots with some localized gusts up 
to 20 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Sisson/SLW

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May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
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January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
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November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
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March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 3
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
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June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
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May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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March 2003, Week 3
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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January 2002, Week 3
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April 2001, Week 5
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
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