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SKIVT-L  November 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 28 Nov 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (262 lines)

Expires:201711282100;;082672
FPUS51 KBTV 281146
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017


VTZ006-282100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
643 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Clear until midnight, then partly cloudy with a chance of
snow or rain showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. South
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of rain or snow showers, mainly
in the morning. Highs around 40. Temperature falling into the lower
30s in the afternoon. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 16. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation
possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Snow showers likely or a chance of rain showers. Little or
no additional snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 

$$


Expires:201711281200;;082185
ASUS41 KBTV 281130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE NOV 28 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    19  10  68 S6        30.35S WCI  11          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    10   9  95 CALM      30.37S                  
MORRISVILLE      N/A     10   8  92 S5        30.37S WCI   2          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     12   9  87 MISG      30.38R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    10   6  85 CALM      30.37R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      15   9  75 SW5       30.35F WCI   8          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    15  10  80 SE8       30.36S WCI   4          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    14  11  87 CALM      30.40S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    18  12  77 W6        30.34F WCI  10          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    13   9  84 S5        30.35S WCI   5          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    16  12  84 CALM      30.35R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     23  18  80 S17G23      N/A  WCI   9          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25  21  86 S21         N/A  WCI  10          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     21  16  79 SE13        N/A  WCI   9          

$$


Expires:No;;082033
FXUS61 KBTV 281127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the 30s
and 40s with breezy south winds at 15 to 30 mph. Mild
temperatures continue overnight with readings mainly in the
30s...before a cold front sweeps across the North Country on
Wednesday. This will produce some mountain rain and snow showers
along with falling afternoon temperatures. Only minor snow
accumulations expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 612 AM EST Tuesday...Minor update to capture latest
trends...which features warming temps and increasing sfc
winds/clouds from cpv and points west. Meanwhile...light winds 
and mainly high clouds east of the mtns continue to support 
temps around 0f NEK to lower teens. Temps will quickly warm once
winds develop and capturing rate of rise will be difficult this
morning...along with winds. According to hourly obs SLK was down
to -3F earlier this morning with BTV 15F and many locations in
the single digits. Making for the coldest low temps of the early
winter season, lets hope this trend continues along with
frequent upslope snow events of the past couple of days and
several larger cold synoptic systems to help build snow pack.
Okay I will stop dreaming about perfect early season conditions
and get back to work. 

The forecast challenge is wind and temps...as strong southerly 
flow develops. Water vapor shows building ridge across the MS/OH
valleys...while mid/upper level trof lifts out of the ne conus.
The combination of departing 1030mb high pres and approaching 
sfc trof associated with 982mb low pres near Hudson Bay will 
produce a strong llvl wind field over the fa. NAM 3km and local 
btv 4km shows 925mb to 850mb winds increasing to 55 to 65 knots 
across the SLV/Northern Dacks btwn 18z-03z today. 
However...soundings continue to support max bottom of the mixed 
layer winds of 30 to 35 knots...resulting in sfc wind gusts btwn
30 and 40 mph over the slv and parts of the northern/central 
CPV...especially over the warmer lake waters. Over 
central/eastern VT llvl profiles show limited mixing...as temps 
struggle into the l/m 30s...so not anticipating any gusts in the
deeper valleys. Mountain summits gust btwn 55 and 70 mph by 
late this aftn/evening hours associated with potent llvl wind 
field. The combination of strong 925mb to 850mb thermal 
advection and increasing clouds makes for a challenging temp 
forecast this aftn...especially after such a cold start. 
Thinking we warm almost 50 degrees at slk today...from early 
morning lows near -5F to an afternoon high in the mid/upper 40s.
Elsewhere...similar large swings in temps anticipated with 
upper 40s/lower 50s expected slv/western dacks to mid 40s cpv to
mid 30s eastern VT/NEK.

Tonight...temps continue to present challenges as deeper valleys
east of the Green Mountains will probably decouple and fall into
the mid/upper 20s. Meanwhile...llvls remain mixed in the cpv/slv
with lows holding steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s...under
breezy southerly winds. Best moisture/dynamics with approaching
sfc boundary and associated 5h vort stay mainly to our
northwest...so a dry forecast is expected. 

On Weds...guidance in good agreement with placement of sfc cold
front across the SLV at 12z...along with enhanced ribbon of 850
to 500 mb moisture and weak 850 to 700mb uvv couplet. This llvl
convergence and mid level moisture will produce a small 1 to 3
hour window of scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers
on Weds. Initially progged 850mb temps are btwn 3-5c supporting
snow levels above summit levels...however as precip arrives wet
bulb cooling quickly lowers progged 850mb temps btwn -1c and -3c
by 12z Weds. This results in snow levels lowering btwn 3500 and
4000 feet by 12z Weds...and btwn 2000 and 2500 feet by 18z Weds
as 925mb temps drop btwn -1c and -3c. Have tried integrate this
idea into the grids with some minor snow accumulation likely in
the dacks and northern/central green mountains on Weds.
However...overall qpf will be light generally btwn 0.10 and 0.20
in the mountains...with snow ratios of 10/12 to 1...so a dusting
to several inches from base to summits. Will mention likely pops
in the mountains and schc/chc in valleys with llvl wind fields
impacting qpf/pops. Temps start warm in the mid/upper 30s to mid
40s...but fall during the afternoon hours back into the upper
20s to mid 30s depending upon location and elevation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 427 AM EST Tuesday...The short term will be rather quiet 
overall as Wednesday night will see high pressure build in the 
from the west into Thursday for dry weather and temperatures a 
few degrees above normal as high is building in from the west 
versus the northwest. This dry break will be short lived as the 
high pressure ridge begins to shift to the east Thursday evening
and the next round of precipitation comes in association to a 
short wave through from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 427 AM EST Tuesday...Upper trough moves into the region 
overnight Thursday into Friday, bringing with it rain and snow 
showers through Friday evening. As few snow showers may linger 
in NEK Friday night into Saturday morning as the upper trough 
exits the area before the next round of high pressure settles in
during the day Saturday. Beyond this point, the next chance for
any significant precipitation won't come until the middle of 
next week, though models can agree on which day exactly it will 
be. Overall, expect temperatures to be mild for this time of 
year with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the 
upper 20s to lower 30s, all slightly above average for early 
Dec.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail thru 06z
tonight...before lower clouds and potential mvfr cigs develop at
slk by 12z Weds ahead of approaching boundary. The big impact 
to aviation today will be developing 925mb to 850mb southwest 
jet of 50 to 60 knots...creating localized sfc gusts btwn 30 and
35 knots at slk/mss/btv...along with areas wind shear and 
turbulence. Expect some moderate to locally severe turbulence in
and around trrn features today...with increasing mid/upper 
level clouds. Weak surface boundary will increase low level
clouds toward 12z weds...with a few scattered rain showers and
trrn becoming obscured. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory is in effect for developing south winds 15
to 25 knots this morning, increasing to 25 to 35 knots this
afternoon with gusts to 40 knots possible. Waves build 3 to 6
feet. Winds continue overnight at 20 to 30 knots from the south
before shifting to the northwest on Weds and decreasing.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 1
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