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SKIVT-L  December 2017, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2017, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 10 Dec 2017 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (253 lines)

Expires:201712102100;;675918
FPUS51 KBTV 101104
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
601 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017


VTZ006-102100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
601 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow this morning, then a chance of
snow showers this afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 19. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Highs in the lower 20s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of
snow 30 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light
snow. Lows around 13. East winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Light snow. Light snow accumulation. Highs in the upper
20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Light snow. Additional light snow accumulation.
Lows around 10 above. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
15 to 20. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 10 to 15. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201712101200;;677023
ASUS41 KBTV 101130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  29  26  89 S6        29.68S FOG     WCI  23  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    23  21  92 CALM      29.66R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    20  20 100 CALM      29.65R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  25 100 MISG      29.63R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  24  22  92 CALM      29.63R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW  25  23  94 CALM      29.68R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW  27  25  93 CALM      29.68R FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    24  23  96 CALM      29.67R                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  25  24  96 CALM      29.68R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    22  21  97 CALM      29.63S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    26  20  77 SW7       29.70R WCI  18          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     30  28  93 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  25  74 W8          N/A  WCI  25          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     28  28 100 SE6         N/A  WCI  22          

$$


Expires:No;;676635
FXUS61 KBTV 101117
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
617 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure will move across the area today
and bring snow showers to much of the region. Tonight lake
effect snow from Lake Ontario will move across parts of the
region with minor snow accumulations possible...mainly over
portions of northern New York. Relatively dry weather is
expected on Monday before a low pressure system moves across the
area Tuesday into Wednesday and brings widespread light to
moderate snowfall to the North Country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 617 AM EST Sunday...Area of light snow has flared up in
the vicinity of Lake Champlain this morning with activity
expected to hold together through mid-morning as it moves only
slowly eastward. Have updated forecast to account for this
enhanced area of light snow that may put down a dusting to two
inches of snow over parts of northwest Vermont this morning.
Rest of forecast in good shape with upper trough to our west
moving into the region...which will enhance the chances for snow
showers across northern New York as the morning wears on.

Previous Discussion...
Light snow has all but ended across southern and eastern 
Vermont early this morning. Much of this area received 
accumulating snow...anywhere from 1 to 5 inches. The winter 
weather advisory that was in effect for southeast Vermont has 
expired. Meanwhile...upstream upper trough is moving eastward 
this morning and has been producing some light snow across 
southeast Ontario and southwest Quebec Provinces. As this system
moves east we should see the potential for snow showers 
increase across northern New York as the morning wears on and 
eventually across the northern half of Vermont during the 
afternoon. Any snow accumulations should generally be less than 
an inch. With the trough moving across the region today...the 
flow aloft will be more westerly and this will keep lake effect 
snow from Lake Ontario to our south. However...tonight the flow 
backs to the southwest and the lake band will move back up into 
our area. Once again the southern portions of Saint Lawrence and
Franklin counties of New York will have the best potential for 
some light snow accumulations. Some of the lake effect should 
make it further downstream across the Champlain Valley and 
northern portions of Vermont later tonight. Feature weakens late
tonight and flow becomes more westerly which will help bring an
end to any snow showers by mid-morning on Monday with dry 
weather expected over the entire area Monday afternoon. High 
temperatures today will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s and then 
in the 20s to lower 30s on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...By Monday night into Tuesday a well-
advertised northern stream clipper low will take a favorable 
track toward and atop the area with a widespread light snow 
event expected. Some surface low re- development of Miller 
Type-B character does occur to our east in the Gulf of Maine 
through the day on Tuesday. However the majority of the synoptic
forcing for snow in our area will come in two phases, the first
occurring during this period from broad warm advective 
processes and upward lift in the mid-levels as the parent low 
nears. At this point it appears the primary window for steadier 
snowfall will occur from the pre-dawn hours through late-
afternoon on Tuesday before best synoptic lift pushes to our 
north and east. Blended 24- 30 hour QPF output, with some 
downward adjustment owing to typical warm-advective model bias 
suggests totals in the 0.15 to 0.35 range with slight 
enhancement possible along eastern slopes of the Greens/Dacks. 
Time-averaged snow ratios in the 15-20:1 range support totals 
generally ranging from 3-6 inches with local variation which 
suggests a potential advisory- level event for favored areas. 
Time will tell. Temperatures should be on the seasonably cool 
side with lows mainly in the teens and highs on Tuesday from the
mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds light.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...Phase two of our prolonged light snow
event then evolves over time by Tuesday night and especially 
into Wednesday as secondary low pressure deepens significantly 
while tracking into the Maritimes. The parent 700-500mb closed 
low tracks atop our area during this period with deeper moisture
returning on evolving gusty northwest flow as pressure gradient
tightens significantly. Areal coverage of light snows/flurries 
will have initially tapered off during the first half of Tuesday
night, but as aforementioned features pivot into the area a 
general re-blossoming of light snows/snow showers should occur 
as we progress into the daylight hours on Wednesday. The best 
coverage should occur across favored northern higher terrain and
accompanying western slopes where orographic enhancement will 
become increasingly favored. Additional light accumulations in 
these areas look likely at this point which will be welcome for 
resort areas gearing up for the Christmas Holiday. Temperatures 
will trend colder during this period with lows Tuesday night in 
the upper single digits to mid teens and corresponding highs on 
Wednesday holding nearly steady in the teens with the brisk flow
creating somewhat uncomfortable wind chills in the single 
digits.

Thereafter global models suggest the overall large-scale pattern 
remains generally unchanged with a western CONUS synoptic ridge and 
a corresponding downstream eastern U.S. trough. Weak ripples of 
energy moving through the background cyclonic flow aloft will create 
near daily chances of snow showers or flurries, with higher 
chances during Friday and possibly again by later next weekend. 
At least that's the broad consensus at this point. Temperatures 
will remain on the chilly side during Thursday (teens for 
highs), though begin a slow moderation process from Friday 
onward as core of continental polar airmass lifts gradually 
northward.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Light snow continues at KRUT and KMPV with
MVFR/IFR conditions expected through about 10z before conditions
improve into the VFR category as the light snow moves east of
the area. Over the remainder of the area VFR conditions will
exist...but after 12z a trough of low pressure will move into
the region and produce MVFR/VFR ceilings and visibilities as
scattered to numerous snow showers move from west to east across
the region. Watch for a wind shift around midday to the west
with the passage of a cold front.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Evenson

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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
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January 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 5
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 5
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April 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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June 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
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January 2002, Week 1
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March 2001, Week 5
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