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SKIVT-L  December 2017, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2017, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 11 Dec 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (283 lines)

Expires:201712112100;;723878
FPUS51 KBTV 111045
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
542 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017


VTZ006-112100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
542 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers this morning,
then partly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the lower 20s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow until
midnight, then cloudy with snow likely after midnight. Snow
accumulation a dusting to 1 inch. Lows around 13. Light and variable
winds, becoming southeast around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the
upper 20s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near
100 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows
around 15. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Additional light
snow accumulation possible. Highs around 18. West winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Areas of blowing snow. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 10 above. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around zero. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 15. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:201712111200;;725574
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  23  18  81 N10       29.90R WCI  12          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    28  20  71 VRB5      29.84R WCI  23          
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  24  22  91 N8        29.86R FOG     WCI  15  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  23  92 MISG      29.82R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MIX PCPN  25  21  86 S3        29.82R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    29  22  73 CALM      29.87R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    29  20  69 SW6       29.86S WCI  23          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    17  13  86 N6        29.93R WCI   8          
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  23  21  91 NW7       29.84R WCI  15          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21  19  93 NE5G13      N/A  WCI  15          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25  21  86 NE23        N/A  WCI  10          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  27  80 NW6G12      N/A  WCI  26          

$$


Expires:No;;726259
FXUS61 KBTV 111146
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
646 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bridge across the area today with any 
morning light snow showers ending and seasonably cold 
temperatures expected. Low pressure will track across the region
on Tuesday and intensify to our northeast on Wednesday bringing
a widespread moderate to locally heavy snowfall to our region. 
Behind this system, a cold airmass settles into the region into 
Friday before temperatures moderate by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 550 AM EST Monday...Minor update to increase light 
snow/snow shower activity across northern counties through mid- 
morning to account for current activity. Minor accumulations of 
a dusting to an inch still look reasonable through 8 am, though 
localized amounts to 2 inches will be possible here and there. 
Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
The forecast remains largely on track for today as a moderating
polar front drops through the area this morning. Scattered 
light snows/snow showers will continue across mainly central and
northern counties in association with the boundary this 
morning, though accumulations should be light and generally less
than an inch. Mainly dry weather is expected across the south. 
High temperatures will average about 4 to 8 degrees colder than 
yesterday across the north under light west to northwesterly 
flow - mainly upper teens to mid 20s, though a few low 30s will 
be possible far south where the front will arrive later in the 
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Monday...The most active period in the 7-day 
forecast then takes shape later tonight into the 
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as a well-advertised clipper low 
takes a favorable track across our area with a moderate to 
locally heavy snowfall expected for our area. The low will then 
deepen rapidly into Wednesday night as it moves to our north and
east. As discussed last night, the storm will have two phases, 
the first occurring Tuesday morning and afternoon as favorable 
warm advective processes interact with deeper moisture and 
isentropic lift to produce a widespread moderate snowfall as the
low approaches. Southeasterly flow in the lower to mid-levels 
should allow precipitation to take on a typical orographic 
character with the heaviest totals along the eastern slopes of 
the southern Greens where low-end Winter Storm Warnings have 
been issued for a general 4- 8 inch snowfall. As a side note 
I've leaned on the cooler side of guidance in regard to mid-
level warming in these areas and have leaned away from the 
milder NAM output anticipating wet-bulb processes should be 
enough to cool the column sufficiently to keep p- type all 
frozen. Elsewhere, we're mainly looking at advisory-level totals
ranging from 3-7 inches with the highest amounts along the 
eastern slopes of the northern Greens/Dacks and in the St. 
Lawrence Valley where where northeasterly channeling may enhance
QPF slightly. Lows tonight should generally range through the 
teens with corresponding highs on Tuesday in the upper 20s to 
lower 30s.

By Tuesday evening the low will track to our north and east dragging 
the northern nose of a distinct dry-slot into central and southern 
areas. During this period steadier snows should taper off in 
intensity and lessen in overall coverage, especially across the 
south where some patchy freezing drizzle may be possible. At this 
point it appears there will be a saturated layer above the dry-slot 
such that light seeder-feeder processes should keep any light pcpn 
still mainly in the form of light snows/flurries. 

As we progress into Wednesday phase two of the system affects our 
area as deeper moisture wraps back into the region on increasingly 
gusty northwest flow. During this period snows should reblossom in 
earnest across the northern mountains with some backbuilding into 
eastern portions of the northern Champlain Valley as flow trends 
blocked over time. While additional accumulations should be light in 
most spots, favorable upslope areas of the western slopes and 
northern Greens stand to pick up several more inches where longer-
term Winter Storm Warnings will be in effect, both for the front-end 
warm advective snows, and the back side upslope phase. Here two-day 
totals will likely range in the 6-10 inch range with localized 
heavier totals. With the pressure gradient tightening over time 
areas of blowing snow will also be possible as northwesterly winds 
gust into the 15 to 30 mph range. This will put quite the chill in 
the air and with temperatures holding nearly steady from the mid 
teens to lower 20s apparent T values will range through the positive 
and negative single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Monday...00z guidance didn't really have too 
much in the way of changes for the period. GFS and ECMWF both 
similar with colder temperatures hanging on into Saturday as 
eastern trough hangs in. Both models do show more of a westerly 
flow pattern for Sunday with moderating temperatures as a 
Pacific airmass spreads in, pushing the arctic air out. But 
there are differences between the two regarding how much warming
there may be. A fairly active pattern, albeit each disturbance 
will be fairly weak, so at this point it doesn't look like any 
significant precipitation. Just several chances for light snow 
showers, along with a good deal of clouds. A few notes on 
specific time periods follow:

Wednesday Night: Fairly steep pressure gradient in the wake of the 
low pressure. With cold air advection, we should see gusty northwest 
winds linger all night. The airmass moving in will be the coldest 
we've seen so far this young winter season, with lows expected to be 
in the single digits, when adding in winds gusting 20-25 mph that 
gives wind chills of -10F to nearly -20F. Should be a few higher 
elevation snow showers across northern Vermont prior to midnight.

Thursday to Friday: A cold couple of days. With 925mb temperatures 
generally running -10C to -15C during the period, daytime highs are 
going to struggle to reach 20F at lower elevations with teens at 
higher elevations. May see some breaks in the clouds Thursday night, 
and with fresh snow cover and lighter winds, there is a chance for 
pockets of good radiational cooling. At this point, stuck with 
guidance blend and have lows ranging from -5F to +5F, though could 
easily have our normally cold spots in the 'Dacks and Northeast 
Kingdom go colder than -10F if we can get some clear skies. Guidance 
does suggest a weak trough coming in Friday, so have some low PoPs 
for a few light snow showers. Friday night will be another cold one, 
but not as cold as Thursday night given clouds and a few flurries.

Saturday/Sunday: As mentioned above, guidance points to a transition 
to a more westerly flow pattern with moderating temperatures. Still 
chilly Saturday with highs in the high teens to low 20s, but by 
Sunday 925mb temperatures will be somewhere in the -5C to 0C range 
indicating highs near to above freezing in lower elevations. With 
the warm air advection aloft, still looking at plenty of clouds with 
a spotty flurry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...still tracking a front moving south
(accompanied by snow showers) and a Lake Ontario streamer
producing additional light snow showers. The front has pushed
south of BTV, and getting into Central VT. MVFR with brief
periods of IFR come with the snow showers. In general, thinking
that the snow shower activity will begin to wane as we get into
mid morning. VFR conditions will eventually overspread the
region, and last into early evening. Expecting light snow to
develop from west to east between 05z to 10z, with IFR
conditions quickly following. 

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN. 
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance 
SHSN. 
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. 
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight 
chance SHSN. 
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. 
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight 
chance SHSN. 
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST 
     Wednesday for VTZ001-002-004-005-007>009-011.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday 
     for VTZ010-012-019.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday 
     for VTZ003-006-016>018.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST 
     Wednesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Nash

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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