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SKIVT-L  December 2017, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2017, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 14 Dec 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (217 lines)

Expires:201712142100;;868928
FPUS51 KBTV 140805
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017


VTZ006-142100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
303 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 8 above. West winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly clear.
Lows around 2 above. West winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 18. Light and variable winds. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 14. Light and variable winds. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in
the lower 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows in the lower 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201712141200;;877686
ASUS41 KBTV 141130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    11   2  67 N5        29.59R WCI   3          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     2  -1  88 CALM      29.52R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY     1  -1  91 CALM      29.54R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      2  -1  88 MISG      29.52R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       2  -2  83 CALM      29.49R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    12   4  71 S3        29.57R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    10   6  84 CALM      29.55R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    13   7  77 CALM      29.56R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR       2  -4  75 NW3       29.63R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR       2  -5  73 CALM      29.52R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     -2 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     -6 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -4 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      0 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     10   5  79 N8G15       N/A  WCI  -1          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     14   3  62 NW14        N/A  WCI  -1          

$$


Expires:No;;872545
FXUS61 KBTV 140917
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
417 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures are here and will remain through the weekend.
There is a chance for some light snow showers Friday night into
Saturday. Temperatures will moderate next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Thursday...Dry and cold weather will be the 
main story for today through Friday with cold surface high 
pressure ridge over us. Maximum temperatures will top out in the
single digits and teens today which is about 15 to 20 degrees 
below seasonal normals. Our region is under a very cold airmass,
the coldest of this meteorological winter season so far. 850 
temperatures will dip to about -20 C this afternoon. Although it
will be a cold day, winds will be generally light and will see 
some sunny skies this afternoon so not a terrible day. As 
previous forecaster mentioned...atop the high peaks, temps will 
barely touch zero, and winds will be brisk in the 20-30 mph 
range, wind chills will push into the -20 to -30 below zero 
range.

Tonight will be cold as well though the air mass will slowly be
warming for tonight and Friday. Another weak low pressure system
approaches the area Friday, and the flow ahead of this low will
become favorable briefly for some lake effect snow showers in
extreme southern Saint Lawrence county. Temperatures Fri will be
a bit warmer but still colder than seasonal normals, generally
teens to lower 20s with increasing cloud cover through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EST Thursday...A weak shortwave clipper system 
will be tracking through the Great Lakes which will bring some 
warmer air initially through the evening hours for most of the 
north country. The track of the surface low looks to track from 
Lake Huron southeast through Lake Ontario. This should lead to a
long southwesterly fetch and resulting lake effect snow event 
off Lake Ontario. Based on the NAM and CMC it looks like the 
snow should only impact Saint Lawrence county for a 6-9 hour 
window. BUFkit soundings indicated the lake induced CAPE should 
be in the 400-500 J/kg based on a lake temp of 42F and 850mb 
temp of -11C. The issue preventing me from going with large snow
totals just yet is the short window and the high shear during 
the event. So I've gone with a general 3-4" generally up the 
Saint Lawrence river and between 1-3" as the band drifts to the 
south. We'll also need to continue to watch for the potential 
for snow squalls across Northern New York on Saturday as the 
925mb thermal gradient is quite sharp and the Snow Squall 
parameter is indicated the potential for some squalls generally 
over the Adirondacks based on a local 4km WRF model.

As the 700mb trough enters the region it will shut off the lake
effect snow by mid day on Saturday and usher in a return of 
colder temps. Expect lows during the warm advection on Friday 
night in the teens and after the front Saturday lows Saturday 
night will be in the low single digits. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Thursday....Sunday and Sunday night should be 
fairly quiet with ridging at the surface and zonal flow aloft. 
There still seems to be some inconsistencies with what happens 
coming out of the weekend. The GFS still points to a null event 
but the CMC and EC show a weak shortwave bringing a reinforcing 
shot of warm advection snow to the region. QPF totals aren't 
really on the high side but nonetheless there should be some 
accumulating snow Monday during the morning and into the 
afternoon.

Temperatures will be the more challenging issue as we'll see a 
moderating trend with highs in the valleys in the mid 30s on 
Monday and near 40 on Tuesday. So the natural issue with warming
temps will be p-type concerns on Tuesday. At this time given 
the amount of variability, and how a degree or two makes the 
difference between rain/sleet/snow, I've just left mention of 
rain/snow based on the boundary layer averaged temp for Tuesday 
morning. By Wednesday the front from the system should be 
through the region and we return to near normal temps with highs
in the upper 20s to low 30s in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue for the 24 hr 
TAF period. Some mid and high level clouds will move across the 
area...but have little impact. Winds will be tapering off 
through the period with speeds under 10 knots generally after 
12z. 

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Neiles

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
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