Expires:201801022100;;831083
FPUS51 KBTV 021126
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018
VTZ006-022100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018
.TODAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers this
morning, then cloudy with a chance of snow showers this afternoon.
Highs around 8 above. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest
around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wind chill
values as low as 26 below.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows
around 6 above. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 19. Light and variable
winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of light
snow. Lows around 5 above. South winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Light snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible.
Highs around 18. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation
possible. Cold with lows 5 below to zero. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Much colder with highs around zero. Chance of snow
70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Colder with lows around
20 below. Chance of snow 60 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Cold with highs around 10 below.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20 below.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 10 above.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows zero to 5 above zero.
.MONDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of
snow 60 percent.
$$
Expires:201801021200;;831221
ASUS41 KBTV 021130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 02 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-021200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY -12 -19 71 CALM 30.31S
MONTPELIER CLOUDY -18 -23 77 S5 30.22S WCI -31
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY -27 -32 77 CALM 30.27R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A -25 -29 81 MISG 30.25R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR -23 -29 74 CALM 30.19S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR -14 -19 79 CALM 30.29S
RUTLAND* MOCLDY -11 -16 78 CALM 30.26R
SPRINGFIELD CLEAR -20 -25 77 CALM 30.28R
HIGHGATE* FAIR -21 -26 78 CALM 30.33R
NEWPORT* FAIR -24 -29 78 CALM 30.23R
BENNINGTON CLEAR -11 -16 78 CALM 30.26R
SUTTON* N/A -17 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A -35 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A -31 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A -26 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A -15 N/A N/A W12 N/A WCI -36
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A -4 -9 77 E3 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 0 -4 85 E1 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;831735
FXUS61 KBTV 021143
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures in the single digits to teens are expected
today along with some scattered snow showers across northern
areas as an upper level disturbance glances the international
border. High pressure builds back into the region for Wednesday
along with closer to normal temperatures in the upper teens to
lower 20s. Coastal low pressure remains on track to bring some
light snow to portions of the forecast area Thursday and
Thursday night, followed by another surge of arctic air for
Friday and Saturday with dangerously cold wind chills likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 643 AM EST Tuesday...After another chilly morning, albeit
warmer in some locations and colder in others, temperatures
will climb above zero for the entire area as the surface flow
backs to the south ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and
weak surface low skirting along the international border this
afternoon. Overall forcing isn't off the charts and moisture is
limited so snow shower activity will be largely confined to the
northern mountainous regions with a dusting to 2" possible
across portions of the Adirondacks and northern Vermont, to
locally 2-4" across the higher peaks around Mansfield and Jay
Peak.
Tonight, weak surface high pressure begins to build into the
region along with increasing southwesterly flow aloft in
response to another shortwave trough and clipper low digging
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will be abundant through the night,
beginning to clear from south to north around sunrise which
will limit radiational cooling. Thus, min temps will be the
warmest we've seen in several days, generally ranging from zero
to +10F. A dry and closer to normal day temperature-wise is
expected Wednesday as southwesterly flow continues to increase
and high pressure remains over the region. Temps will climb into
the upper teens to mid 20s with increasing sunshine through the
day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 327 AM EST Tuesday...Models remain consistent for the
Wednesday night through Thursday night time frame as a digging
upper trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley pivots into
the region. During this time bombing sub-960 mb cyclogenesis off
the north wall of the Gulf Stream will track into the Canadian
Maritimes near Halifax, NS onward toward the Gulf of St.
Lawrence. Deeper moisture and better dynamics from the maritime
system will largely stay off to our east. However, as suggested
last night, there appears to be enough periphery support from
the parent upper trough such that widespread light snows should
blossom from the Adirondacks eastward into VT by Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as we transition to an
increasingly brisk north/northwest flow. This should support
better coverage in the northern higher terrain, especially the
northern Greens where orographical enhancement should allow
several inches to fall. Using a multi-model QPF blend
(discounting the overly robust Canadian GEM) and time-averaged
snow ratios in the general 20:1 range support 24-hour
accumulations from a dusting to 2 inches in the Adirondacks into
the Champlain Valley, 1 to 3 inches across southeastern VT and
2 to 5 inches across north central/northeastern VT with locally
higher totals. Little accumulation is expected across the St.
Lawrence Valley.
Of more importance will be the return of bitterly cold arctic
air by Thursday night as the polar front surges east behind the
departing maritime low. Indeed, perusal of most recent guidance
supports prior thinking with lows bottoming out in the negative
single digits east to the negative teens west by sunrise Friday.
As the pressure gradient continues to tighten increasingly
gusty winds will develop overnight and foster some
blowing/drifting of the light snows and lower apparent
temperatures into advisory, if not low level warning thresholds
in many areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Tuesday...Any lingering light snows or snow
showers/flurries will gradually lessen in coverage across the
north during the day on Friday and taper off by Friday night as
the now distant eastern Canada low pulls further away. However,
the pressure gradient will remain fairly tight keeping a
moderately brisk northwesterly flow across the area. This will
help usher in our well-advertised mother-lode of arctic air into
the region as mean 925 mb temps drop to around -30C into
Saturday. Dangerous wind chill values will continue through the
period with advisories and warnings a near certainty. As for
actual temperatures expect highs on Friday to occur in the
morning (+/- single digits) with slowly falling readings through
the day. Lows by Friday night mainly from -15F to -25F and
corresponding highs on Saturday remaining below zero for all
areas, generally -6F to -12F for the northern mountains and -3F
to -9F for the broader valleys.
Further out, it does look like quite a change will be in the
air from Sunday onward into next week with quite active weather
continuing. Medium range solutions maintain overall consistency
in showing the area lifting fairly quickly out of the
deep/bitter cold from Sunday afternoon onward with increasing
chances of precipitation as temperatures moderate greatly.
Indeed, if you believe this morning's operational GFS and ECMWF
runs, low pressure will track into the region by Monday/Tuesday
with widespread light snows and even mixed precipitation or rain
if you can believe it. Time will tell and things change often
at these time ranges. However, high temperatures in the 20s and
30s will certainly feel quite welcome given our recent stretch
of cold.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR to start the morning except for some
lingering MVFR at KMSS and KRUT which will trend to VFR by mid-
morning before ceilings lower again across northern New York
this afternoon as an upper disturbance skirting the international
border brings some scattered snow showers to the northern
mountainous regions. From 16Z onward, MVFR should mainly only
affect KMSS through 00Z and KSLK for the entire period, where
all other terminals should remain VFR. Breif reduction to IFR is
possible in snow at KSLK. Light and variable winds this morning
increase to 10-15 kts from the southwest by noon, with some
gusts to 20 knots at KMSS and KSLK.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KTYX (Montague NY) radar remains out of service. A motor and
power supply is needed for repair. The parts remain on order. An
exact return to service for KTYX is unknown, but possible later
this week pending parts arrival.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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