Expires:201801052100;;979879
FPUS51 KBTV 051140
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018


VTZ006-052100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
637 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Snow. Areas of blowing snow. Additional snow accumulation a
dusting to 2 inches. Blustery and much colder with highs around
2 below. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Chance of snow 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 35 below. 
.TONIGHT...Light snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Total snow
accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Blustery, cold with lows around
14 below. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 41 below. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. Light snow likely in the morning, then a chance
of snow showers in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow. Additional
snow accumulation a dusting to 1 inch possible. Blustery, cold with
highs around 9 below. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
40 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as
43 below. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Areas of blowing snow. Cold with
lows around 21 below. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. Wind chill values as low as 40 below. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 8 above. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Wind chill values as low as 39 below. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 5 to
10 above. 
.MONDAY...Snow likely. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the
upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in
the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 

$$


Expires:201801051200;;979422
ASUS41 KBTV 051130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 05 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW   2  -3  80 NW14      29.50R WCI -16          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW   0  -4  83 NW16G25   29.37S FOG     WCI -20  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW   1  -6  72 N9        29.40R WCI -14          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      2  -6  69 MISG      29.35R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW   0  -6  75 SW9G16    29.32R WCI -16          
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW   5   1  82 NW3       29.46R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW   4  -3  73 W6        29.43R WCI  -7          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY     7  -2  66 VRB7G17   29.39R WCI  -5          
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  -2  -7  80 W8G21     29.51R WCI -17          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    -2  -9  72 W16G25    29.35R HAZE    WCI -23  
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW   2  -9  60 W10G21    29.51R WCI -14          
SUTTON*          N/A     -2 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A      0 N/A N/A W10         N/A  WCI -17          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A      3  -2  78 N15G25      N/A  WCI -15          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A      3  -6  66 NW24        N/A  WCI -20          

$$


Expires:No;;979902
FXUS61 KBTV 051142
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will slowly pull away from the region through 
Saturday with gusty winds, bitterly cold wind chills and areas of 
blowing snow. Light snows will continue across the northern 
mountains, where a few additional inches will be possible. 
Temperatures begin to moderate by Sunday and will warm considerably 
from Monday onward through the rest of next week with periodic 
bouts of light precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 642 AM EST Friday...Minor updates were made to sky cover 
and hourly temperatures/dewpoints to match current observational
trends. Some partial clearing has occurred in the St. Lawrence 
Valley and temperatures have fallen a bit quicker than prior 
indications. Falling temperatures and dangerously cold wind 
chills continue to advect into the area this morning along with 
considerable areas of blowing snow. When headed out this morning
please dress appropriately and make sure you have winter 
weather safety items in your vehicle. Stay warm!

Prior discussion... 
Deep, 950mb low pressure across New Brunswick will track 
northeast into the Gulf of St. Lawrence by later today and 
toward the Davis Strait region by Saturday. A modestly robust 
pressure gradient will continue on the back side of this system 
during this period supporting sustained wind speeds from 10 to 
20 mph and gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range. These winds combined
with sharply colder temperatures will create dangerously cold 
wind chills across the forecast area and all Wind Chill Warnings
will remain in place with this package. While sub -30F wind 
chills will not be met in every location at all times, most 
spots should see values occasionally below these levels by 
tonight into Saturday.

In terms of snowfall, models remain consistent that light 
accumulating snowfall will become increasingly confined to northern 
counties, especially the northern mountains over the next 24 hours. 
While there may be lulls in steadier activity from time to time, the 
overall idea of cyclonic wrap-around moisture advecting southward 
into these areas into tonight still looks good so have maintained 
high pops accordingly. Additional accumulations of several inches 
will be possible in favored upslope locales. As such we've opted to 
extend the Winter Weather Advisory for the western slopes of the 
northern Greens to include Lamoille County until 11 pm tonight, and 
cancelled all remaining Advisories and Warnings. 

Temperatures will go nowhere today under strong cold thermal 
advection and actually slowly fall through time, leaving values in 
the single digits below zero in most areas by mid to late afternoon. 
The cold temperatures then continue tonight with average values by 
Saturday morning generally in the -10F to -20F range. Saturday 
should bare the brunt of the cold as lingering northern mountain 
flurries/snow showers end. Modestly gusty west/northwest flow will 
continue as highs range from -2F to -8F in the broad valleys and 
from -6F to -12F across the northern mountains. Indeed a good day to 
stay inside.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 333 AM EST Friday...By Saturday night sensible weather 
finally calms down for a brief period as expansive 1040 mb polar
high settles across the entire east coast from Maine to 
Florida. This will be our coldest night in the foreseeable 
future as temperatures look to moderate considerably by next 
week. For now have maintained consistency showing minimums in 
the -15F to -30F range. Of course there will be variability as 
always with radiative nights and locally colder values will be 
possible in favored northern mountain hollows while slightly 
milder readings are certainly plausible near the Lake Champlain 
shore.

On Sunday we begin to turn the corner so to speak as temperatures 
begin a long-awaited moderation. The process will be slow at first 
so afternoon highs will still be on the chilly side, but at least 
we'll be headed in the right direction. For now I've offered 
readings from 5 to 10 above in eastern VT, 10 to 15 in the Champlain 
Valley/Adirondacks and teens in the St. Lawrence Valley. Toward 
day's end a warm front associated with an approaching weak northern 
stream system will encroach into the region along with increasing 
clouds and perhaps a few snow showers across northern and western 
counties toward evening. Winds will trend southerly over time and 
become gusty into the 20 to 30 mph range from the Champlain Valley 
westward by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Friday...Expecting some light snow Sunday night
with a warm front lifting through the area. More light snow
during the day Monday with a cold front crossing our forecast
area. Snow will become more orographically influenced going into
Monday night with front to our east and flow becoming
Northwesterly behind it. Snow showers will wind down during the
day Tuesday. During the Tuesday night through Wednesday night
time frame will have a much warmer high pressure ridge in place
compared to the past couple weeks. After this ridge pushes east
of us the weather becomes much more active and warmer from
Thursday onward. We could have some rain and thaw if the current
forecast holds up. Have gone warmer than super blend guidance
for Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Snow will begin to become more terrain
focused today, but strong gusty winds will keep visibilities
variable through much of the day with blowing snow. Still 
widespread MVFR with occasional IFR at best for much of the
daytime hours. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest 
through the period, with gusts up to 35 kts possible. 

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN.
Monday Night: MVFR and IFR. Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Following are daily records for the coldest minimum and lowest 
maximum temperatures at our established long term record observation 
sites. 

Burlington (records begin 1884)
Jan 5: Coldest Low: -17 in 1996   Lowest High:  0 in 1904
Jan 6: Coldest Low: -23 in 1996   Lowest High: -7 in 1896
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -19 in 1923   Lowest High: -2 in 1994

Montpelier (records begin 1948)
Jan 5: Coldest Low: -17 in 1996   Lowest High: -5 in 1996
Jan 6: Coldest Low: -17 in 1957   Lowest High: -1 in 1996
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -21 in 1996   Lowest High:  0 in 1996

St Johnsbury (records begin 1894)
Jan 5: Coldest Low: -29 in 1904   Lowest High: -1 in 1904
Jan 6: Coldest Low: -25 in 1996   Lowest High: -7 in 1896
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -25 in 1996   Lowest High:  0 in 1945

Massena (records begin 1948)
Jan 5: Coldest Low: -25 in 1972   Lowest High: -2 in 1996
Jan 6: Coldest Low: -25 in 1996   Lowest High: -6 in 1972
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -27 in 1996   Lowest High: -1 in 1994

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Chill Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for 
     VTZ006-016-017.
NY...Wind Chill Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Nash

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