Expires:201801072100;;067832
FPUS51 KBTV 070825
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018


VTZ006-072100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
322 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Highs around 8 above. Northwest winds around 10 mph, becoming
southwest this afternoon. Wind chill values as low as 39 below. 
.TONIGHT...Snow showers likely. Snow accumulation a dusting to
2 inches. Lows around 6 above. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance
of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Snow likely. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches
possible. Highs around 30. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Additional light snow
accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 30. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in
the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows around 20. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of
snow 60 percent. 

$$


Expires:201801071200;;075048
ASUS41 KBTV 071130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN JAN 07 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY   -19 -25  73 E3        30.50                   
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY   -12 -18  74 NW10      30.39  WCI -31          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY   -18 -22  82 SW3       30.43                   
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A    -21 -25  81 MISG      30.41                   
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR     -17 -24  73 CALM      30.35S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR     -19 -24  76 CALM      30.49R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY   -22 -27  77 CALM      30.45                   
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    -9 -19  61 W10       30.43  WCI -27          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR     -18 -23  76 SE3       30.51R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR     -19 -23  82 CALM      30.39R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY   -16 -23  70 CALM      30.46                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A    -17 N/A N/A NW7         N/A  WCI -33          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A    -24 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A    -20 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    -18 N/A N/A NW44        N/A  WCI -56          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     -6 -15  65 SW2         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     -2 -13  60 NW8G14      N/A  WCI -17          

$$


Expires:No;;074898
FXUS61 KBTV 071125
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm today into the single digits and teens 
above zero, then steadily rise overnight as well in warm air 
advection ahead of approaching low pressure system. Winds will 
be breezy out of the southwest, areas of blowing snow are 
possible. Snow showers will develop late this afternoon and 
continue into Monday with a plowable snow likely in the 
mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Wind chill warning continues until 10
AM. High pressure will shift east of the region today allowing 
for brisk southwesterly flow to develop with 850 jet around 40 
kts over the region. Surface temperatures will steadily rise 
today and overnight, as well as Monday. By early this evening 
temperatures will be in the single digits and lower teens across
the north country. There will be an increasing chance for some 
light snow showers, especially along the Saint Lawrence valley 
and international border in our Northern zones with shortwave 
passing to our Northwest. Plenty of clouds in place overnight, 
as mentioned warm air advection will keep surface temperatures 
on a steady rise overnight. Temperatures continue to increase on
Monday, and a surface trough and upper level shortwave cross 
the area bringing some light snow to the area. Warm air and 
moisture advection will result in widespread area of synoptic 
scale isentropic ascent, which results in widespread snowfall on
Monday. Southwesterly flow will cause Champlain valley to be a 
bit shadowed, so only very light accumulation there. More 
favorable upslope areas of the northern Adirondacks/northern 
Green Mountains will see some higher accumulations. Looks like 
Burlington will finally reach freezing by Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 425 AM EST Sunday...The upper level trough will be
tracking through the North Country continuing to produce snow
showers however the moisture will be depleting and so the
showers will be becoming more orographic in nature. A strong low
jet will lead to much of the Champlain Valley being shadowed and
so I dont anticipate too much more snow through the evening
hours. Total accumulations from Monday into Monday night should
range in the 2-5 inch range across the higher terrain with
generally 1.5 inches or less in the valley. I wouldn't be
surprised to see 6-8 inches or more along the higher summits. 

Temps overnight will be cooling but with warm air advection
we'll only fall to the mid 20s. Quite the change of pace from
the -18F it is currently.

On Tuesday the high starts building in and it's warm air 
advection for the foreseeable future. There will still be some
lingering mountain snow showers but on the whole it will be a
pleasant day under partly cloudy skies and temps in the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 448 AM EST Sunday...High pressure builds in and warm air 
advection surges into the region by mid week. We'll be looking 
at temps warming every day with a good chance at multiple days 
of 40 degrees or more and a chance to see 50 on Thursday.

The medium ranged models are coming a bit more in line with each
other towards the end of the week with a North Atlantic High
pressure system interacting with a upper level trough over the
eastern CONUS. A rich airmass with high PWATs will bring rain to
the North Country Thursday night. Unfortunate this is going to
lead to a messy situation given how cold the current ground temps
are. Rain that falls will have the potential to freeze on 
contact causing a travel impacts. There is some colder air on 
the back side of that trough so the rain will switch back over 
to snow at some point its just going to be a function of how 
much precip falls at what time.

Looking over things from a hydro perspective, we are certainly
paying attention to any potential threat. Looking at the temp
period between 18z Wed through 12z Sat portions of the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys will see 350+ thawing degree
hours and the combination of rain could lead to some breaking of
the river ice. The recent cold spell has cause significant
river ice and I've got to think its pretty thick in most areas.
So I'm not confident on the threat of flooding but we're
certainly going to continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Skies have cleared across the region
overnight and winds have gone nearly calm, causing temperatures
to plummet across the North Country. Winds will pick up out of
the south southwest today 8-10 kts and clouds will increase 
from the west. Should see development of mid-level (8-12kft) 
ceilings after 18Z Sunday. 

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Following are daily records for the coldest minimum and lowest 
maximum temperatures at our established long term record observation 
sites. 

Burlington (records begin 1884)
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -19 in 1923 Lowest High: -2 in 1994

Montpelier (records begin 1948)
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -21 in 1996 Lowest High: 0 in 1996

St Johnsbury (records begin 1894)
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -25 in 1996 Lowest High: 0 in 1945

Massena (records begin 1948)
Jan 7: Coldest Low: -27 in 1996 Lowest High: -1 in 1994

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Chill Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...Wind Chill Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Nash

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