Expires:201801032100;;880737
FPUS51 KBTV 031125
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018


VTZ006-032100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
623 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then clearing. Highs around 20.
Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph this
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 5 above. Southwest winds
around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then
snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs
around 19. Northeast winds around 10 mph, becoming northwest 15 to
20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow. Areas of blowing snow. Additional light snow
accumulation. Brisk, cold with lows around 4 below. Northwest winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near
100 percent. Wind chill values as low as 21 below. 
.FRIDAY...Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Additional light snow
accumulation possible. Much colder with highs around 1 below.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow
70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 31 below. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Colder with lows 15 below to 20 below zero. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Cold with highs around 10 below. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20 below. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 10 above. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 5 above. 
.MONDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of
snow 60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance
of snow 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201801031200;;880857
ASUS41 KBTV 031130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 03 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    17   7  64 S15       30.14R WCI   2          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    11   6  81 S8        30.13R WCI  -1          
MORRISVILLE      N/A      6   6 100 CALM      30.11R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      0  -3  87 MISG      30.12R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       8   4  86 SE7       30.11R WCI  -4          
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    14   5  65 S5        30.19R WCI   7          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    10   4  76 S3        30.18R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    -9 -13  83 CALM      30.22R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    17  10  73 S6        30.14R WCI   8          
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    11   8  86 SE6       30.10R WCI   2          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY     9  -1  64 SW3       30.21R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      3 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     -9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      7 N/A N/A W3          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     19  12  73 S15         N/A  WCI   5          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  14  68 S22         N/A  WCI   8          

$$


Expires:No;;880757
FXUS61 KBTV 031127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief ridge of high pressure will bring warming temperatures 
and some sunshine to the region today before coastal low 
pressure spreads light snow and blowing snow over portions of 
the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. Behind this 
system another surge of brutally cold air is expected for Friday
and Saturday with dangerously cold wind chills likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday...Well today is certainly the quiet 
before the storm as a very brief ridge of high pressure looks to
scour out low clouds over the region this morning with sunny to
partly sunny skies for most by the afternoon. South/southwesterly
flow hold fairly steady through the day with high temps very 
tricky based on current obs. Guidance indicates temps hold 
steady or barely climb from current values in the Champlain and 
St. Lawrence Valleys, while warming significantly elsewhere. 
Much like the past few days, foresee some chasing of temps 
through the day, but for most see highs topping out in the upper
teens to mid 20s.

Temperatures remain tricky going into the overnight as well as 
skies will start clear across central and eastern areas, but 
increasing clouds from both the southeast and west towards dawn 
will halt temps from falling below zero again. Expect lows to 
mainly be in the single digits above zero. 

Models remain fairly consistent in regards to low pressure 
bombing off the East Coast Thursday while an upper trough digs 
into the Great Lakes and strong high pressure settles in over 
the north central plains. Strong north to northeasterly flow 
developing through the day will aid in moisture transport into 
Vermont and eastern portions of the NY Champlain Valley with a 
deep snow growth layer from the surface to around 15kft. Snow 
increases in areal coverage from southeast to northwest during 
the day, and combined with increasing wind gusts in the 25-35 
mph range has prompted the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory
for all of Vermont. Main impacts will be travel, especially 
during the evening commute where snow will be widespread across 
most of the area. Snow and impacts continue into Thursday night,
read more about that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday...Bombing maritime cyclone then 
tracks through Nova Scotia Thursday night and into the Gulf of 
St. Lawrence through the day on Friday. As this occurs, a strong
arctic frontal boundary will surge back eastward with 
temperatures dropping sharply to below zero in most areas by 
Friday morning with readings holding steady in the +/- single 
digits on Friday. Widespread light snows/snow showers will 
become increasingly confined to northern counties, especially 
the northern mountains during this frame while gradually 
lessening in coverage during the daylight hours on Friday. A 
modestly tight northwest pressure gradient between the maritime 
low and an expansive 1040+ mb polar high across the upper 
midwest should ensure gusty winds into the 20 to 30 mph range. 
As such, have kept areas of blowing snow despite the relatively 
light overall accumulations by our standards. Speaking of those 
accumulations, we're generally looking at 24-hour totals through
Friday morning ranging from a dusting to 2 inches in the St. 
Lawrence Valley, 2-5 inches in the Adirondacks and most of 
western/southern VT. Slightly higher totals from 3 to 6 inches 
will be likely across much of north central and northeast VT 
with locally higher totals. This is in good agreement with 
surrounding NWS offices and collaborative WPC output. As a side 
note we've discounted the 06Z NAM output showing a distinct 
westerly trend in track and heavier QPF given it's recent 
volatility regarding this storm. As an end result, we've issued 
a Winter Weather Advisory for Vermont counties during the 
daylight hours on Thursday into Thursday night despite the 
relatively light accumulations, mainly for locally difficult 
travel due to the blowing snow impact. 

Of more importance will be lowering wind chill values to 
advisory or warning levels by Friday morning into the day on 
Friday and beyond. Perusal of model-blended air temperatures and
deterministic wind output supports advisory to low-end warning 
values during this period which will only become worse by Friday
night. Internal multi- office coordination was quite extensive 
on this topic this morning, but given the expected magnitude of 
the expected chill a Wind Chill Watch has been issued for the 
entire county warning area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday...The big concern during the early 
portions of the extended forecast will be the bitter cold and 
dangerously cold wind chills. Gusty northwest winds will likely 
continue through Friday night into Saturday. The winds combined 
with sub-zero air temperatures will likely create warning-level 
wind chill values across the entire forecast area during much of
this period with apparent T values ranging from -20F to -40F in
VT and from -25F to -45F in NY. Indeed, actual high 
temperatures on Saturday will not climb above zero with mean max
values ranging from -6F to -12F in the northern mountains and 
the St. Lawrence Valley, and from -3F to -9F in the Champlain 
and southern VT valleys. There could be some lingering flurries 
or very light snow showers in the northern mountains during this
period as favorable flow interacting with the arctic airmass 
wrings out every last potential flake. Any additional 
accumulations would be negligible however.

Winds then abate by Saturday night as skies gradually trend 
clear/partly cloudy as arctic high pressure axis drifts 
overnight. Low temperatures will show quite a bit of variability
given the expected radiative effects. For now, mean values from
-15F to -30F look reasonable.

Looking further out, our active early-winter weather pattern 
continues into early next week. As sharply as we re-enter bitter
cold during Friday and Saturday, we'll pull out of it during 
Sunday into Monday as the large-scale synoptic flow re-amplifies
from the Rockies eastward. Specific details will likely change 
considerably before now and then, though highlights will include
decent chances for light snows/snow showers on Sunday 
night/Monday as a weakening clipper low heralds the arrival of 
strong warm advection in the lower and mid levels. Temperatures 
will take on a classic non- diurnal trend during this period 
with highs from +5F to +15F Sunday afternoon holding steady or 
slowly rising Sunday night.

By Monday into Tuesday medium range guidance remains consistent
with prior solutions from yesterday showing low pressure and 
deeper moisture riding north into the region under increasingly 
robust and amplified southerly flow aloft. This morning's ECMWF 
and GFS showing the mean 0C line at 925 and 850 mb surging to 
the intl border by Monday evening suggesting mixed precipitation
or even a period of rain will be possible at some point during 
this period. For now have offered conservative highs in the 25 
to 35 degree range keeping p-type mainly as snow showers, though
admittedly this is a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with MVFR at KSLK/KMSS ending shortly. Skies clearing 
east of KMSS through 00Z before mid clouds increase across the 
entire area again ahead of our next system. Winds will be 
south/southwest at 8-12kts through the daylight hours,
diminishing to light and variable after 04Z.

Outlook...

Thursday: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN, Areas BS.
Thursday Night: MVFR with areas of IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SN, Areas BS.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Chance
SHSN south, Likely SN north, areas BS.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Chill Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday 
     evening for VTZ001>012-016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday 
     for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Wind Chill Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday 
     evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

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