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SKIVT-L  February 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L February 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 3 Feb 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (250 lines)

Expires:201802032100;;944995
FPUS51 KBTV 030750
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
247 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018


VTZ006-032100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
247 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers this
morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Highs around
16. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows around 15.
South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Snow. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the
lower 30s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance
of snow 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows
around 17. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows 15 to 20. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow. Highs around 30. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows around 10 above. Chance of snow
90 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20. 

$$


Expires:201802031200;;953857
ASUS41 KBTV 031130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    -1  -8  72 S3        30.25R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      -5  -9  83 SE5       30.18S WCI -16          
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      -5 -11  75 CALM      30.20R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -5  -8  87 MISG      30.19R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -6 -11  80 S3        30.16R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      -3 -11  71 CALM      30.24S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY     0  -7  72 SE3       30.23R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    -3  -8  79 SW3       30.26R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      -3  -7  81 CALM      30.24S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -7 -11  81 SW3       30.16R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      -4  -9  79 CALM      30.25R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     -9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     -8 N/A N/A W46         N/A  WCI -41          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A      5  -4  66 S7          N/A  WCI  -7          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     10   0  61 SW18        N/A  WCI  -8          

$$


Expires:No;;947029
FXUS61 KBTV 030842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region this
morning. Developing southwest winds from Lake Ontario will 
bring some localized lake effect snow across St. Lawrence and 
Franklin counties in New York and extending into northern
Vermont with light snow accumulation possible. Otherwise, 
looking for mostly cloudy conditions and just a few flurries 
with highs in the upper teens to around 20 today. A more 
widespread snowfall is expected across the region Sunday into 
Sunday night. Moderate snowfall accumulations are possible, 
especially across the Adirondacks and into central Vermont. 
Additional snow or a wintry mix based on current indications, 
is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 254 AM EST Saturday...Snow chances will increase 
through the weekend. First will come some lake effect over the 
favored portions of northern NY, followed by warm advection 
precipitation tonight and Sunday. 

Radar shows a lake effect band currently affecting areas east of 
Lake Ontario. This band will lift northward for a time today as 
winds turn more to the southwest, spreading into the favored areas 
of southern St Lawrence, Franklin, and Essex Co NY. There will be 
enough flow aloft to allow some of this snow to spread downstream 
into the northern Greens with light accumulation possible. Snow 
amounts in the Adirondacks will generally be 2 inches or less, with 
the highest totals in southern Saint Lawrence County. Outside of 
this lake effect, it will be dry with increasing clouds through the 
day today. Highs will be in the teens to lower 20s. 

Turning toward tonight and Sunday...low pressure currently over the 
Northern Plains will shift eastward toward the southern Great Lakes 
today. This feature will continue its eastward push tonight and 
Sunday, but its forward progress will slow as the upper shortwave 
digs into the Northern and Central Plains states. Warm advection out 
ahead of the advancing low will begin in earnest tonight as a warm 
front lifts across the North Country. Temperatures will rise, or at 
least hold steady overnight tonight with most locations in the 20s 
by daybreak Sunday. Warm advection snow will spread first into 
northern NY this evening and eventually into northern VT early 
Sunday. This snow will be focused mainly in the northern mountains 
through Sunday morning; strong southwest flow will keep the 
Champlain Valley shadowed and southern VT will remain south of the 
best lift once the front pushes through. However, the snow will 
gradually become widespread over the entire North Country Sunday 
afternoon as lift increases due to the digging shortwave and potent 
850mb jet. Temperatures will continue to warm into the 30s areawide 
on Sunday, and wouldn't be surprised to see the southern Connecticut 
River or Champlain Valleys mix with rain by Sunday evening. Snowfall 
totals through daylight hours Sunday will mainly be in the 1 to 3 
inch range, with some locations in the St Lawrence Valley/western 
Adirondacks/northern Greens exceeding 4 inches. South winds will 
increase through the day Sunday as well, with gusts up to 30 mph 
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 342 AM EST Saturday...Sunday night will start out fairly 
mild as we will be in the warm sector of low pressure tracking 
north and west MSS. With temperatures in the 30s any 
precipitation will be in the form of very wet snow or even some 
rain mixed in the valleys. However a strong cold front will be 
moving through overnight with the precipitation tapering off as 
snow showers lingering longest in the higher terrain. Looking 
for an additional 1 to 3 inches snow Sunday night especially in 
the higher terrain. Any lingering mountain snow showers or 
flurries will be ending by midday Monday. By Monday morning 
temperatures will fall to 10 to 15 in northern NY, teens in 
northern VT, and low to mid 20s in southeast VT. Temperatures 
will only rises slightly on Monday as 925mb temps fall to about 
-15C with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 342 AM EST Saturday...The main feature of interest in the
long term is the potential for a moderate precipitation 
producer midweek.

A broad upper level trof will cover much of eastern North America 
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic coast Monday night will move
offshore on Tuesday with a return flow bringing more clouds and
low chance of some light snow. Some moderation in temperatures
will take place with readings right about seasonal normals with
highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the single digits. 

Models fairly consistent and continue to be in decent agreement with 
a moderate shortwave moving through the northeast Wed-Thu but timing 
differences develop with the associated surface wave by Thu with the 
GFS/GEFS faster than the EC/UK/CMC. However all show it to be an 
open wave aloft so it should be fairly progressive, but there is a 
fair amount of available moisture and warm advection north of a
fairly strong baroclinic zone just to our south. Models also 
now in agreement that thermal profiles will favor a mainly snow 
scenario in so a moderate snow is possible so stay tuned as we 
get closer to the event.

Thursday into Friday the system moves away with a chance of 
lingering snow showers or flurries before high pressure builds into 
the region at the surface. Looking for seasonably cold 
temperatures with highs in the upper teens north to upper 20s 
south and lows around zero in the north to 10 in the south.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through 
the next 24 hours. Skies are mainly clear at this hour, with
occasional broken ceilings around 2500 ft at MPV. Clouds will
increase through 12z Saturday with light snow possible at SLK
through 22z. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected until after
06z Sun, when snow will spread across from west to east.
Ceilings will mainly remain AOA 3500 ft until then, then MVFR
conditions will prevail thereafter. Winds will become gusty from
the south after 06z Sunday as well, with gusts up to 25 kt. 


Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR and IFR. Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VTZ003-004-
     007.
NY...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ029>031-
     034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Hastings

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March 2009, Week 3
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