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SKIVT-L  February 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L February 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 1 Feb 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (249 lines)

Expires:201802012115;;858292
FPUS51 KBTV 011142
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018


VTZ006-012115-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
642 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers this morning, then
a chance of snow or rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the mid
30s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows
around 14. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming northwest 15 to
20 mph after midnight. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Highs around 18. Temperature
falling to around 8 above in the afternoon. Northwest winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder with lows around 2 below.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 16. West winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 10 above. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in
the mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow
60 percent. 
.MONDAY...Snow likely. Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow
60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201802010600;;845564
ASUS41 KBTV 010510
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1200 AM EST THU FEB 01 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-010600-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    29   9  43 S18G32    29.82S WCI  16          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    25  11  55 S9        29.85F WCI  15          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    28  10  46 SW9       29.81F WCI  19          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     26   8  46 MISG      29.82F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    24   7  48 SE7       29.82F WCI  16          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    29   8  42 S10       29.87S WCI  20          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    30  15  53 S8        29.88F WCI  22          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    26  11  52 S10       29.90F WCI  16          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    28  11  49 S12G18    29.80R WCI  17          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    23  10  58 S9        29.80S WCI  13          
BENNINGTON     FLURRIES  28  18  66 SW9       29.91F WCI  19          
SUTTON*          N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;856936
FXUS61 KBTV 011107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
607 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A changeable weather pattern is in store for the remainder of
the week and into the weekend and early next week. An area of 
low pressure will affect the region overnight into Thursday. 
Expect some snow that will mix with light rain on Thursday as 
southerly winds bring in warmer air. A cold front will bring 
another round of cold weather to end the week. Another front is
expected to move through late Saturday with additional snow,
while yet another low pressure area on Monday gives us another
chance of snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 548 AM EST Thursday...Low level warming will cont as we go
later into the day. Later by afternoon a series of weak short
wave trofs aloft will result in intermittent lower terrain and 
scattered rain and snow showers, with all snow showers at and
above 1000 ft MSL. Snow accumulations even where precip type
remains all snow will be light, generally around an inch or
less except locally higher over favored mountain areas.

The arrival of the arctic front overnight tonight will likely 
result in another inch of snowfall with the possibility of brief
snow squall conditions with the immediate passage of the front. 
Still uncertain if we'll have the situation to actually issue 
our first "Snow Squall Warning" product. Later shifts will fine 
tune that aspect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Temperatures will remain steady or continue to fall. 925mb 
temperatures by Friday will be down to -20C near the Canadian 
border to -14C in the south by mid afternoon. Thus surface 
temperatures are not expected to move much during the day, and 
may actually slowly fall. Plan for highs only in the teens. 
Still a fairly tight pressure gradient, and good low level 
mixing, so we'll have breezy northwest winds gusting over 20 mph
quite often. That will produce wind chills much of the day in 
the -5 to -15F range. Still a good amount of low level moisture 
around, so I'd expect the mountains will squeeze out some light 
snows. Speaking of the mountains, air temperatures at the higher
elevations will only be in single digits, with winds producing 
wind chills well below zero (-20s to -30s, and pushing -45F at 
the highest summits).

Friday night is looking cold, but we've seen much worse earlier
this winter. Lows should range between +3 to -8F. Some wind 
will continue for much of the night, so wind chills will bottom 
out between -10F to -25F. We may end up having some wind chill 
advisory issuance requirements.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Should see a cold start to the weekend with 850mb temps of
-22C to -25C in place across the North Country and sfc ridge 
axis cresting across the region during Saturday morning. 
Generally looking at high temperatures of 15 to 20F Saturday 
afternoon with light westerly winds in place. It appears a weak 
frontal system developing across the Great Lakes will bring 
increasing clouds to the region later Saturday into Saturday 
night from SW-NE. Should see some developing light snow within 
the frontal zone, especially across nrn NY where we've increased
PoPs to around 60% for Saturday night, and 40-50% across VT. 
Based on present indications, may see light snow accumulations 
of 1-2" Sat night, with locally up to 3" possible across nrn NY.
The increasing clouds and light S-SW winds developing Saturday 
night will keep temperatures a bit warmer, with lows mainly in 
the low-mid teens. 

Next potential coastal low pressure system we are monitoring 
arrives Sunday night into Monday. Appears the 12Z GFS has 
shifted a bit further north and west with the sfc low tracking 
across Cape Cod/sern MA during Monday morning. The sfc low is
also a bit deeper at 990mb or so. On the other hand, the 12Z 
ECMWF has shown little change with prior runs with 999mb sfc low
tracking just south and east of the 40N 70W benchmark at 12Z 
Monday. Both operational runs indicate the system would be
rather quick moving, consistent with the open nature of the
associated 700-500mb shortwave trough. Appears best potential
for accumulating snow would be across central and eastern VT
Sunday night into Monday morning. The GFS solution would bring 
potential moderate snowfall (4-8") across central/ern sections 
of VT, and we'll need to continue to monitor this potl. At this 
point, have raised PoPs, to 60-70% across central/ern VT and 
45-60% elsewhere (lowest in the St. Lawrence Valley). Highs on 
Monday should be in the mid 20s. 

Should see continued seasonably cold temperatures into Tue/Wed
of next week, with highs generally in the low-mid 20s. The 12Z 
GFS suggests another potential shortwave trough and sfc low near
sern New England by Wednesday, but fast nature of the mid-level
flow pattern suggests timing of any features out at day 7 will 
be of relatively low skill at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 439 AM EST...

Through 06Z Friday...Gusty southwesterly winds will continue 
this morning at MSS/SLK, while BTV/PBG will continue to see 
southerly winds channeled up through the Champlain Valley. 

The snow showers activity has diminished with the warm front, and 
expecting mainly VFR conditions until about noontime when a 
prefrontal trough ahead of a cold front approaches the northern NY 
TAF sites initially, and then the northern and central VT terminals 
in the afternoon. High MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible in the 
snow showers. 

The cold front will follow in the late afternoon/evening periods 
with scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls especially 
between 00Z-06Z/FRI. Late TAF issuances can pinpoint times.

The winds will veer to southwest to west in the late afternoon into 
the early evening at 10-15 kts with some gusts in the 18-25 kt 
range especially west of the Champlain Valley.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
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January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 2
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
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October 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 3
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August 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 2
June 1999, Week 1
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