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SKIVT-L  February 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L February 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 2 Feb 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (241 lines)

Expires:201802022100;;906703
FPUS51 KBTV 021134
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018


VTZ006-022100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
631 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 12. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers until
midnight. Colder with lows around 2 below. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 20 percent. Wind
chill values as low as 21 below. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of snow showers in the
morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Highs
around 18. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible.
Lows around 16. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the
lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of snow 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation
possible. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs 15 to 20. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 5 above. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow.
Lows 15 to 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow
80 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow 80 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 

$$


Expires:201802021200;;906386
ASUS41 KBTV 021130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    15   2  56 NW13G22   29.97R WCI   1          
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    14   9  80 NW13G25   29.87R WCI   0          
MORRISVILLE    FLURRIES  13   6  74 N12       29.90R WCI  -1          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     20  17  88 MISG      29.81S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MIX PCPN  15  10  78 W10G17    29.83R WCI   3          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    15   4  62 N14G26    29.92R WCI   0          
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW  21  18  86 NW16      29.86R FOG     WCI   7  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    24  14  65 VRB6      29.82R WCI  17          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    12   2  65 W8        29.98S WCI   0          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    12   5  71 NW8       29.87S WCI   1          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    22  11  62 NW12G20   29.88S WCI  10          
SUTTON*          N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     14 N/A N/A NW9         N/A  WCI   2          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      0 N/A N/A NW25G48     N/A  WCI -25          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     16   7  67 N12G20      N/A  WCI   3          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     18   5  57 NW22        N/A  WCI   0          

$$


Expires:No;;906806
FXUS61 KBTV 021140
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic airmass will move into the region today leading to a
period of below normal temperatures over the next couple of 
days. Today will be chilly with temperatures falling throughout 
the day and brisk northwesterly winds. As we move into the 
weekend a low pressure system will bring widespread moderate 
snow to the region Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM EST Friday...Temperatures continue to sharply drop
this evening as cold air advection builds behind an arctic 
front. Calendar highs were set at midnight as temps follow a 
non diurnal trend today. The northwesterly winds will pick up 
during the daytime and make conditions feel rather untenable today
when compared to yesterday. Yesterday's afternoon temps were in
the mid 30s and this afternoon wind chills will be in the 
single digits to teens below zero so while not an exact 
comparison between temps and apparent temps its going to feel 
quite different to the system.

Snow has for the most part come to an end across the North
Country as the cold and dry airmass has undercut the moisture 
over the region. We're still looking at mostly cloudy skies so
light flurries will still be possible across parts of southern
and eastern Vermont but no further accumulation is expected.

A weak ridge builds in during the afternoon overnight but the
pressure gradient between the advancing ridge and the low near 
Newfoundland will remain strong enough to see winds through the 
overnight hours tonight. The 7-12 kts of wind along with temps 
in the single digits above and below zero will result in wind 
chills as low as -15F to -20F developing across the Adirondacks 
and the Northeast Kingdom. Thus we've gone ahead and issued a 
Wind Chill Advisory from 10pm tonight through 7am Saturday 
morning.

Saturday will be fairly quiet with the exception of a lake
effect snow band developing over Lake Ontario and impacting 
portions of Saint Lawrence County. Significant accumulations 
aren't expected and we should warm across the region into the 
high teens to lower 20s under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 AM EST Friday...Increasing warm advection will occur 
Saturday night into Sunday as ridging to our east gives way to 
approaching low pressure. Deep southwest flow will usher in 
moisture and this combined with a strong jet will result in snow
spreading over the North Country Saturday night and Sunday as 
low pressure moves into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Temperatures 
will rise through the night Saturday night, especially in the 
Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys where temperatures will be 
in the mid to upper 20s by daybreak Sunday. This warming will 
continue through Sunday afternoon, with max temps to reach into 
the lower to mid 30s. Sunday will be breezy as well with winds 
gusting around 25 mph. Widespread snow will continue until 
Sunday evening, then it will taper to mainly mountain snow 
showers as the low moves to our east, ushering in a colder and 
drier airmass in its wake. Snow totals will mainly be in the 2-6
inch range, with locally higher amounts possible in the 
northern Greens and portions of the Adirondacks. Lows Sunday 
night will range from around 10F in northern NY to the upper 
teens/lower 20s in eastern VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 237 AM EST Friday...Any lingering mountain snow 
showers on Monday morning will come to an end by the afternoon, 
lasting longest in the Northeast Kingdom. Cold air advection will 
prevail through the day and highs will only be in the teens or 
low/mid 20s. The next chance for significant precipitation comes 
toward the middle of the week, when low pressure will develop over 
the Ohio River Valley and push northeast toward New England. There 
are significant differences in the handling of this low; the GFS 
moves it to off the southern New England coast, and eventually into 
the Gulf of Maine as a 997mb low Wednesday night. The ECMWF is 
faster and further north with the low track, taking it over central 
NY/VT and into eastern ME by 00z Thursday while keeping the central 
pressure over 1000 mb. The Canadian is the slowest but has a 
low track that lies somewhat between the GFS and ECMWF solutions
with a 999mb low off the MA/NH/ME coast by 12z Thursday. All 
this said...while some sort of precipitation is likely during 
the middle of the week, it's hard to pinpoint exactly where, 
when, and what form it will take. The ECMWF solution would mean 
a snow to wintry mix to rain event, while the GFS and Canadian 
would be all snow. Have stayed with a model blend to account for
the uncertainty. Please stay tuned to later forecasts on this
developing situation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect generally VFR as conditions
continue to improve this morning. The lone exception is SLK 
were light mountain snow showers are still continuing. IFR 
visibilities with MVFR ceilings will hold on through 13-14z but 
should trend dry shortly after that. Winds will be the larger 
concern today with moderate to strong northwesterly winds of 
10-15kts gusting as high as 20-25kts during the day today and in
to the early evening hours.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST 
     Saturday for VTZ003-004-007.
NY...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST 
     Saturday for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
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September 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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October 2006, Week 5
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January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 2
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
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January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 5
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June 2004, Week 5
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
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December 1999, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 3
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May 1999, Week 1
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