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SKIVT-L  February 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L February 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 4 Feb 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (277 lines)

Expires:201802042100;;003497
FPUS51 KBTV 041139
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
636 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018


VTZ006-042100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
636 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

.TODAY...Snow. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the
lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance
of snow near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Lows
around 15. South winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west after midnight.
Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers in the morning,
then sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 18. West winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 8 above. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid
20s. Chance of snow 80 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow 80 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201802041200;;002958
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    28  12  51 S21G38    30.01F WCI  15          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      21  12  68 S9        30.06F WCI  11          
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    23  12  62 SW3       30.02F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     22  12  65 MISG      30.06F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      20  11  67 SE12G21   30.04F WCI   8          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    31  18  59 S9        30.03F WCI  22          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    29  18  63 SW7       30.04F WCI  22          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    22  15  75 S3        30.15F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    28  13  52 S15G28    29.98R WCI  17          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    21  11  66 S7        30.00S WCI  12          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    32  10  40 S8G17     30.07F WCI  25          
SUTTON*          N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     19 N/A N/A S5          N/A  WCI  13          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A SW26G58     N/A  WCI   4          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     28  18  64 S29G38      N/A  WCI  13          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  19  64 S37G43      N/A  WCI  14          

$$


Expires:No;;996422
FXUS61 KBTV 040849
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will become more numerous during the day today as 
low pressure tracks north and west of the St. Lawrence Valley, 
and a secondary low develops south of New England. A period of 
steady light to moderate snow is expected this afternoon into 
this evening away from the Champlain Valley associated with 
this system, and a mix with rain is also possible in the 
southern valleys in south-central Vermont. Another quick moving 
low pressure system is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday,
bringing the chance for additional snow. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 347 AM EST Sunday...A Winter Weather Advisory has 
been issued for much of the North Country, outside of the wider 
valleys. Snow totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected, with locally 
higher amounts in the higher terrain. 

Warm advection will continue today as low pressure slides from the 
Central Plains up into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Temperatures from 
the Champlain Valley westward are mainly in the lower to mid 20s, 
with teens across eastern VT and portions of the Adirondacks. Light 
snow is lifting northward through far northern NY/VT at this hour in 
response to a warm frontal passage. This precip will abate somewhat 
toward daybreak, but expect snow will spread across the entire 
region in earnest by midday as a 850mb jet crosses the region. This 
strong southwest flow will leave the Champlain Valley shadowed for a 
time, but expect even these areas will see precipitation this 
afternoon owing to the jet and digging shortwave energy to our west. 
As mentioned above, temperatures will rise through the day, and many 
locations will warm into the mid 30s by late afternoon. As such 
expect snow will mix with or even change to rain for a time, 
particularly in the wider valleys. For those places that remain all 
snow, it will be wet snow with low snow-to-liquid ratios. The other 
concern for today will be gusty south winds; gusts up to 30 mph will 
be possible, especially in the Champlain Valley where winds will be 
funneled up the valley. 

For tonight into Monday...steady precipitation and warm advection 
continue through the evening hours ahead of a strong cold front 
approaching from the Great Lakes. This front will push through the 
North Country later tonight, dropping temperatures sharply as we 
head toward daybreak Monday. The steady precipitation will 
transition to mainly mountain showers and any rain will change back 
over to snow early Monday morning, eventually coming to an end by 
the afternoon. Snow totals will of 3 to 6 inches are expected over 
the Adirondacks and much of Vermont from the spine of the Greens 
eastward. The wider valleys along the Saint Lawrence, Connecticut 
River, and Lake Champlain will get 1 to 3 inches of snow owing to 
potential rain/snow mix. Cold advection will prevail much of the day 
Monday, and expect early highs as temperatures will fall through the 
day. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 336 AM EST Sunday...Broad cyclonic flow will continue Monday 
night, keeping a cloudy/showery unsettled weather pattern over 
the area. Numerous weak disturbances will rotate through the 
broader longwave trough, providing better lift for more focused 
showers. One such wave will eject out of the central Rockies 
Monday night and bring some spotty snow showers to the North 
Country Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. HiRes models 
are honing in on a more focused lake effect band that will 
develop Tuesday off of Lake Ontario and extend northeastward. 
While the heavier snow within the band will remain to our south 
and west, expect areas of Saint Lawrence County could pick up a 
couple of inches on the tail-end of the band. Elsewhere across 
the North Country, expect accumulations under an inch. The 
lowest accumulations will occur in the Champlain Valley as 
broader southwesterly and channeled southerly flow keep the area
drier. Should only see some flurries within the Champlain 
Valley. 

Temperatures will be near seasonal norms Monday night and
Tuesday, with lows Monday night in the single digits to low
teens, and highs Tuesday in the 20s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 336 AM EST Sunday...The progressive pattern will continue 
through the week, with a series of quick hitting systems 
quickly moving through bringing numerous chances of snow. 
Temperatures will remain near normal during the extended forecast
with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the single digits 
to teens. 

The big picture Tuesday night will feature a departing surface 
high off the MidAtlantic Coast and a shortwave digging into the 
Rockies within the broader longwave trough. The shortwave will 
tap into moisture-rich return flow around the departing surface 
high as it digs into the Central Plains. This setup will result 
in deep southerly/southwesterly flow setting up over the 
southeast US, advecting warm moist air up the East Coast towards
New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. A sharp baroclinic
zone will develop along the boundary between this air mass and 
colder, drier air moving in from the Great Lakes region 
Wednesday night. As more upper-level waves continue to eject out
of the Rockies northeastward and interact with the baroclinic 
zone stretched from southern New England through the Gulf Coast,
cyclogenesis will occur, resulting in multiple weak lows riding
the front and bringing precipitation into New England Wednesday
through Thursday morning. 

Current thinking is that we will stay in the cold sector and see
predominantly snow out of the system. Looks like the baroclinic
zone will run through southeastern Vermont, so it is possible
that southeastern portions of the county warning area could see
a touch of rain Wednesday. However, thinking with sub freezing
temperatures throughout the low-levels, the predominant precip
type will be snow, but this could change if the track of the low
shifts further north or west. Due to the decent lapse rates in
the low levels, there doesn't look to be much of a mixed precip
threat. Would expect a pretty clean rain/snow line running to
our south and east. While we will see plowable snow midweek from
this system, the progressive nature of the overall pattern
currently progged by the models is not favorable for a
significant snow event. Stay tuned to the forecast as we get
closer to the event and hammer out more details. 

Once the system passes to our east Thursday, expect some
lingering snow showers or flurries and another chance for snow
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through 12z
Sunday with gradually lowering ceilings. Snow will be slow to
move into the region, with visibility remaining AOA 6SM until
12z. Then both ceilings and visibility will lower through the
day with light snow spreading across the region, particularly
Sunday afternoon and evening. Most locations will see visibility
drop into the 1-3 mile range after 18z-21z and remain so 
through 04z Mon or so. Ceilings will drop to 1500 ft at most
terminals during this time frame, with local IFR ceilings. Gusty
south winds will become more widespread through the forecast
period as well, with gusts 20-30kt through this afternoon. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST 
     Monday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST 
     Monday for NYZ029-030-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Hastings

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May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 1
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