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SKIVT-L  February 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L February 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 6 Feb 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (299 lines)

Expires:201802062100;;106070
FPUS51 KBTV 061107
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
604 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018


VTZ006-062100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
604 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in
the mid 20s. South winds around 10 mph, becoming southwest this
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers until midnight.
Lows around 7 above. West winds around 10 mph until midnight,
becoming light and variable. Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow. Snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Highs in the
lower 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow near
100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows
around 11. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 19. Northwest winds around
10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in
the lower 20s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows
5 to 10 above. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.SUNDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201802061200;;107126
ASUS41 KBTV 061130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    18   7  62 S13       30.20R WCI   5          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     5   1  83 CALM      30.20S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  11   7  84 CALM      30.19S FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      5   1  83 MISG      30.20F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW   5   1  83 CALM      30.18F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    17   7  63 S5        30.21R WCI  10          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    13  10  88 SE7       30.20F WCI   3          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    13   7  77 CALM      30.24F                  
HIGHGATE*      FLURRIES  17  10  71 S6        30.20R WCI   9          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    10   7  85 S3        30.16S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    16  10  77 CALM      30.20F                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      7 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     19  12  73 SW15G22     N/A  WCI   5          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21  14  73 S26         N/A  WCI   4          

$$


Expires:No;;107604
FXUS61 KBTV 061142
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will continue to spread over the North Country this 
morning as a clipper low passes over the area. Snow showers will
end this afternoon/evening and a brief ridge of high pressure 
will build in overnight. Wednesday, a low pressure system will 
cross the central Appalachians and move to the southern New 
England Coast, bringing widespread plowable snow to the region.
Snow will be heavy at times between noon and 7 PM Wednesday, and
travel conditions could be particularly affected during the
evening commute on Wednesday. The snow will end Wednesday night
but the progressive pattern will continue and precipitation
chances return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 318 AM EST Tuesday...Light snow showers are spreading over
the North Country as a weak clipper low approaches from the
southern Great Lakes Region. Ahead of the low, some weak warm 
air/moisture advection is taking place as flow becomes 
increasingly southwesterly. Given the continental origins of the
system, moisture is lacking so snow accumulations will be 
fairly low. Expect generally a dusting to two inches of snowfall
today, with the lowest amounts in the Champlain Valley and the 
higher amounts on mountainous terrain. Portions of southern 
Saint Lawrence County could see up to 3 inches as a lake effect 
band is directed northeastward off of Lake Ontario. By late 
afternoon, the better moisture will have shifted east and snow 
showers will end by evening. 

Skies will be generally overcast this morning, but we'll see a
few breaks of sun by the late afternoon. Temperatures will be 
warmer than yesterday owing to the warm air advection, with 
forecasted highs generally in the 20s throughout the forecast 
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 318 AM EST Tuesday...A brief ridge of high pressure will
build in overnight tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into
the single digits to low teens.  

By Wednesday morning, a more dynamic system will move into the
area, bringing a pretty good, albeit quick, slug of snowfall
throughout the day. Have issued a Winter Storm Warning for our 
Vermont zones and the northern Adirondacks in effect from 8 AM 
Wednesday until 1 AM Thursday. Have also issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for the Saint Lawrence Valley from 6 Am to 11 PM
Wednesday. 

The upper-level pattern will feature a slight sharpening of the
broader longwave trough as northern stream shortwave energy 
from the Pacific Northwest phases with a southern stream 
shortwave ejecting northeastward out of the Rockies. In the 
lower levels, southwesterly flow over much of the eastern US 
will intensify to the west of a subtropical high. This will 
allow for the intensification of a low to mid level baroclinic 
zone along the boundary of this moisture rich Gulf air and 
colder continental air pushing in on the backside of the 
trough. Cyclogenesis will occur over the southern Mississippi 
River Valley tonight and the developing low will ride the 
baroclinic zone northeastward over the Appalachians and to the 
southern coast of New England by Wednesday afternoon. 

The net result of this pattern will be widespread accumulating 
snowfall with up to 1"/hr snowfall rates over much of the North 
Country Wednesday. Snowfall will be heavy at times between noon 
and 7 PM, so the afternoon commute will be impacted. With the 
collocation of the best upper- level jet dynamics with mid- 
level frontogenesis along the baroclinic zone, expect the best 
forcing for ascent over southern and central Vermont. Expect 
8-12 inches in these locations, with slightly higher amounts 
possible on the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains where 
there will be some orographic enhancement to the lift. Areas 
further north and west, including northern Vermont, the
Champlain Valley and the northern Adirondacks, will have 
slightly less forcing but better thermal profiles and should 
still do fairly well for snow amounts. With the slightly colder 
air over this region, expect a little flufflier snow as forecast
soundings show a deep saturated layer residing in the snow 
growth zone. Expect 4-8 inches in these locations. The Saint 
Lawrence Valley will have more limited forcing for ascent along 
with more limited moisture, so for now have forecast 3-6 inches 
of snowfall for this area. 

Snow will quickly end from west to east Wednesday night as the
progressive system rapidly departs to the northeast. Thursday
will be drier with highs in the upper teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 247 AM EST Tuesday...Big picture shows mid/upper level
trof across central Canada with broad westerly flow across the
ne Conus. This will result in fast moving systems every couple
of days with temps trending toward above normal values by the
weekend. 

Thursday Night...1035mb high pres over central PA will result in
mainly clear skies and light winds early across our cwa...which
combined with fresh snow pack will allow temps to drop quickly.
However...850mb to 500mb moisture races from west to east in the
fast flow aloft across our cwa aft 06z...resulting in temps
warming after midnight. Expecting lows -5F SLK/NEK to lower
teens CPV.

GFS/ECMWF continue to show a period of light snow Friday/Friday
Night across our cwa associated with general waa. Would not be
surprised a narrow axis of several inches of snow accumulates
from the dacks into central VT...given good mid level
moisture...embedded 5h vort...and modest low to mid level fgen
forcing. Also, initial thermal profiles are cold with good deep
snow growth in favorable rh region...resulting in good fluff
factor. Still some uncertainty on exact north/south placement of
axis of greatest qpf/snowfall...but trends are currently our
friend if you are looking for free refills before the weekend.
Progged 850mb temps range btwn -8c and -13c with clouds support
highs mainly mid teens to mid 20s on Friday with lows in the
teens.

Saturday...FA is between systems with generally dry and
above normal temps expected. Progged 850mb temps warm under
southwest flow to -4c and -6c...supporting highs mid 20s to mid
30s...with a few upper 30s possible if more sun develops.

Next system impacts our cwa on Sunday with additional precip.
Have continued to mention likely pops in grids...with complex
thermal profiles supporting a mix of rain/snow. Overall qpf
looks limited given the weak forcing and progressive flow
aloft...but developing 850mb southwest jet of 30 to 40 knots
will help to push 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles near 0c by 18z
Sunday. However...duration our cwa spends in the warm sector is
very limited...about 6 to 10 hours...with cold air remaining
trapped east of the Greens. Current thinking a burst of light to
moderate waa snow develops on Sunday Morning...before mixing
with rain/snow in the CPV/Western Dacks midday and ending as a
period of snow showers on Sunday Night. The SLV/NEK and parts of
central VT...look to see more of a wintry mix before changing
back to all snow on Sunday Night. Bottom line not expecting
major impacts...but another advisory type event is probably for
portions of our cwa. Highs mainly in the 30s Sunday cool back
into the 20s on Monday under modest low level cold air advection
on brisk northwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Current radar and obs show light snow 
over slk/mss with intervals of ifr vis, while rest of our taf 
sites are experiencing vfr conditions. The combination of weak 
short wave energy and mid level moisture, along with favorable 
southwest trajectory off lake ontario is helping to enhance 
moisture/snow across our western taf sites. Expecting periods of
ifr vis in light snow thru 15z this morning at mss/slk. 
Meanwhile...pbg/btv and rut remain mainly vfr with perhaps a 
period of mvfr vis in light snow between 12z-15z this morning. 
Winds generally southwest at 5 to 10 knots with a some higher 
gusts possible btwn 15z-20z today. Vfr prevails overnight with
widespread snow developing btwn 12-15z Weds...with vis quickly
becoming ifr.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday 
     for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday 
     for NYZ028>031-034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for 
     NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
October 2010, Week 4
October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
September 2010, Week 5
September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
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March 2006, Week 1
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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May 2001, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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January 2001, Week 3
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