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SKIVT-L  March 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 26 Mar 2018 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (266 lines)

Expires:201803262000;;953737
FPUS51 KBTV 260706
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018


VTZ006-262000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
303 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows around 17. Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs
in the upper 40s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain or sleet. Little or no sleet accumulation.
Lows in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or sleet likely. Little or no sleet accumulation.
Highs in the mid 40s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.FRIDAY...Rain showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201803261100;;961832
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      22  17  81 CALM      30.69R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      17  14  88 CALM      30.69R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      10   9  95 CALM      30.69R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     19  15  84 MISG      30.67R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      18  13  82 CALM      30.67R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      18  15  88 CALM      30.68R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      20  14  77 SE6       30.67R WCI  12          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      18  16  92 CALM      30.68R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      18  16  92 CALM      30.71R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      14  12  92 SW3       30.69R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      21  15  78 SE5       30.63R WCI  15          
ISLAND POND*     N/A      5 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     12 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A E20         N/A  WCI   1          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21  19  93 S1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  23  74 NW8         N/A  WCI  23          

$$


Expires:No;;960645
FXUS61 KBTV 260757
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over southern Quebec will build and shift
east through Tuesday morning, keeping conditions over the North
Country clear and dry. Tuesday, clouds will increase and
temperatures will warm to around 50 ahead of the next system, 
which will bring some rain starting Tuesday night. Higher 
elevations could see some light wintry mix out of this system 
Tuesday night, but little accumulation of the wintry mix is
expected. The precipitation will become all rain by Wednesday,
and will taper off Wednesday night. Thursday will be drier with
continued above normal temperatures. The dry weather will be 
short lived however, as a low pressure system brings more 
precipitation to the area Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Monday...Strong high pressure will build over 
the region today, supplying a sunny, relatively warm spring day.  
After a chilly start this morning, temperatures will warm into 
the 40s by the afternoon in most locations. Overnight tonight, 
the high pressure will shift east to the Canadian Maritimes, 
putting the North Country in southerly return flow behind the 
departing high. Temperatures aloft will warm through the middle
of the week as deep southwesterly flow sets up, drawing in warm
moist air with Gulf origins. Despite the warming air mass, 
tonight will be one last night of fairly effective radiational 
cooling under clear skies. Look for overnight temperatures to 
fall into the teens to low 20s in most locations, with the 
typical cold spots of the northern Adirondacks/NEK falling into 
the single digits overnight. 

Tuesday we'll start to really feel the impacts of the return
flow as temperatures will climb to around 50 degrees. High
clouds will move in from west to east throughout the day
Tuesday, thickening through the evening. As the surface high
pressure departs to the northeast, an increasing pressure
gradient at the surface and deep southwesterly flow aloft will
result in increasing winds through the day. During the late
afternoon into the evening, some rain will move in to northern
New York and spread eastward ahead of an advancing warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 AM EDT Monday...Mid-level ridge axis extending along 
the east coast of the United States will begin to breakdown 
Tuesday night, as a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes shears
out to our north and west. It continues to appear that clouds 
and light precipitation will accompany this feature, as height 
falls and weakly cyclonic flow aloft develop across the North 
Country Tuesday night. The 00Z NAM seemed overdone on 
precipitation given the setup, with the ECMWF likely having the 
best idea of lesser precipitation amts from west to east across 
NY/northern New England as mid-level trough weakens over time. 
That said, 00Z GFS backward trajectories for BTV at 06Z Wed 
originate from the nrn Gulf of Mexico, and noting PW values 
0.7-0.9" in both the 00Z GFS/NAM. Taken collectively, looking 
for liquid precipitation amts 0.2-0.3" across nrn NY, and 
generally 0.1-0.2" across VT. In terms of precipitation type, 
looks like sufficient wet- bulb cooling occurs to allow for a 
rain/sleet mix across the Adirondacks and areas east of the 
Green Mtns. While spotty freezing rain can't be ruled out in 
these locations, current model soundings show max temps aloft +1
to +2C, and generally want to see a more well-defined warm 
layer with stronger WAA aloft for a widespread freezing rain 
threat. Thus, showing just some light snow/sleet accumulation 
(1" or less) in the nrn Adirondacks and central/ern VT for 
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Should be cold rain 
in the immediate BTV area with lows near 36-37F Tuesday night. 
Lows 31-33F expected in aforementioned mixed pcpn areas. 
Shouldn't see any major impact to travel, but some slick spots -
especially on higher elevation roads - are possible Tuesday 
night into very early Wednesday morning. 

Should see persistent cloudy conditions daylight hrs Wednesday with 
lingering low-level moisture, but appears synoptic ascent will pass 
to our east, with little additional precipitation for the balance of 
the day Wednesday. Low-level air mass will be seasonable, with 
afternoon highs generally 44-48F and light south winds in place. 

Little overall change foreseen for Wednesday night with weak 
shortwave ridging developing aloft, and light low-level flow regime 
allowing stratus to linger much of Wednesday night. Should see 
overnight lows in the mid-upr 30s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Monday...Consistency between 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM 
is quite poor, resulting in greater than normal uncertainty in 
terms of timing of precipitation during the long-term period. A 
digging 700-500mb trough across the central U.S. is generally 
portrayed by both models for Thursday, but evolution and 
strength of embedded mid-level vorts is quite different. Should 
see a mainly dry day on Thursday ahead of these potential 
systems, with highs in the mid 50s in most valley locations. 
Thereafter, the 00Z GFS depicts a 998mb low lifting newd across 
NY/nwrn VT later Thursday night into Friday morning. This would 
suggest an additional period of steady light to briefly moderate
rainfall across the region. The 00Z ECMWF, on the other hand, 
suggests a stronger mid-level vort max arriving later, with a 
coastal low tracking from NYC at 18Z/Sat to Nova Scotia by 06Z 
Sunday. That solution would bring a mix of rain/snow on 
Saturday, with snow accumulations possible for the higher 
elevations. The 00Z GEM offers elements of both models, with a 
period of rainfall with a leading low pressure area Friday, and 
rain/higher elevation snow Friday night and Saturday with 
trailing frontal wave across srn/central New England on Saturday
morning. 

At this point, the official forecast includes possible precipitation 
both Thursday night/Friday and again Saturday, with max PoPs in the 
50-60% range until better consistency in solns occurs. Low chance 
PoPs continue into Sunday for valley rain showers/mtn snow showers, 
with strong divergence in model solns.

We can expect some within bank rises of several feet owing to 
combination of rainfall and snow melt as we head into 
Friday/Saturday. At this time, NAEFS ensemble forecasts don't
suggest a river flood threat, which is consistent with our 
analysis that overall QPF and temperatures shouldn't cause any 
extreme rapid snowmelt thru the period. We'll continue to
monitor. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...High pressure over the North Country will
bring continued clear conditions throughout the TAF period. 
Winds will be calm overnight and generally around 5 knots from 
the north/northeast during the afternoon hours. This evening, 
winds will switch to become southerly/southeasterly, but stay in
the 3-7 kt range through 06Z tonight. 

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance PL, Chance FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA,
Numerous SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Scattered
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Isolated SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...RSD

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
December 2005, Week 4
December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
November 2005, Week 5
November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
June 2005, Week 5
June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
May 2005, Week 4
May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
December 2004, Week 4
December 2004, Week 3
December 2004, Week 2
December 2004, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
April 2004, Week 5
April 2004, Week 4
April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
March 2004, Week 5
March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
February 2004, Week 5
February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
February 2004, Week 2
February 2004, Week 1
January 2004, Week 5
January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
January 2004, Week 2
January 2004, Week 1
December 2003, Week 5
December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
December 2003, Week 2
December 2003, Week 1
November 2003, Week 5
November 2003, Week 4
November 2003, Week 3
November 2003, Week 2
November 2003, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 4
October 2003, Week 3
October 2003, Week 2
October 2003, Week 1
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May 2003, Week 1
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April 2003, Week 3
April 2003, Week 2
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March 2003, Week 3
March 2003, Week 2
March 2003, Week 1
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February 2003, Week 3
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January 2003, Week 3
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January 2003, Week 1
December 2002, Week 5
December 2002, Week 4
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December 2002, Week 2
December 2002, Week 1
November 2002, Week 5
November 2002, Week 4
November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
October 2002, Week 5
October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
September 2002, Week 5
September 2002, Week 4
September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
August 2002, Week 5
August 2002, Week 4
August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
July 2002, Week 5
July 2002, Week 4
July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
July 2002, Week 1
June 2002, Week 5
June 2002, Week 4
June 2002, Week 3
June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
May 2002, Week 4
May 2002, Week 3
May 2002, Week 2
May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
December 2001, Week 2
December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
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November 2001, Week 3
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November 2001, Week 1
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October 2001, Week 3
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October 2001, Week 1
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July 2001, Week 3
July 2001, Week 2
July 2001, Week 1
June 2001, Week 5
June 2001, Week 4
June 2001, Week 3
June 2001, Week 2
June 2001, Week 1
May 2001, Week 5
May 2001, Week 4
May 2001, Week 3
May 2001, Week 2
May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
February 2001, Week 4
February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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January 2001, Week 3
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May 2000, Week 3
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May 2000, Week 1
April 2000, Week 5
April 2000, Week 4
April 2000, Week 3
April 2000, Week 2
April 2000, Week 1
March 2000, Week 5
March 2000, Week 4
March 2000, Week 3
March 2000, Week 2
March 2000, Week 1
February 2000, Week 5
February 2000, Week 4
February 2000, Week 3
February 2000, Week 2
February 2000, Week 1
January 2000, Week 5
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January 2000, Week 3
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December 1999, Week 5
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May 1999, Week 1
April 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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