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SKIVT-L  March 2018, Week 5

SKIVT-L March 2018, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 30 Mar 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (251 lines)

Expires:201803302000;;157990
FPUS51 KBTV 300724
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018


VTZ006-302000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
320 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TODAY...Patchy fog this morning. Rain this morning, then a chance
of showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers until
midnight, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Breezy with
highs around 40. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in
the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely or a chance of rain showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows around 20. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. 

$$


Expires:201803301100;;165946
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  48  45  89 W8        29.60R FOG              
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  43  43 100 CALM      29.63F                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  39  39 100 CALM      29.60R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  44 100 MISG      29.59F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  42  42  99 SE9       29.62S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      44  43  99 SE5       29.61R VSB 3/4          
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  47  45  93 SE9       29.60S                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  37  37 100 CALM      29.65S VSB 1            
HIGHGATE*      DRZL/FOG  43  43 100 W7        29.62R VSB 1            
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   41  41 100 CALM      29.59R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  53  49  86 S6        29.62R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A SE3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A SW17G49     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  39 100 NW8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  41  93 NW7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;159141
FXUS61 KBTV 300800
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain ends this morning as surface low pressure tracks from northern
New York toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence late today. Drier and 
seasonable weather is expected on Saturday, followed by another 
frontal passage with scattered light rain and snow showers for 
Saturday night. Temperatures will trend cooler to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 227 AM EDT Friday...Frontal wave (1002mb low) tracking
newd across the nrn Adirondacks early this morning is 
associated with moderately strong QG forcing and PW values 
1.1-1.2" per latest RAP-based SPC mesoanalysis. Ongoing periods 
of moderate rain and patchy fog will continue thru 12Z. Appears 
best large- scale forcing moves north and east of the region by 
12Z or so, with rainfall winding down. Trailing cold front 
should clear the CT River valley by 12-13Z, with just a few 
lingering orographic rain/snow showers thru the remainder of 
the daylight hrs as winds shift W-NW. It appears that moisture 
will linger in the 925-850mb layer, and generally looking for 
low clouds to prevail thru most of the day, even as 
precipitation ends. High temperatures will generally be reached 
this morning, ranging from around 50F across the valleys of VT, 
and only in the low- mid 40s across nrn NY with winds already 
shifting NW in the St. Lawrence Valley at 07Z. Should see 
relatively steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon 
with increasing low- level CAA.

The remainder of the near-term period will be dry and relatively
tranquil. Sfc ridge builds in from the Great Lakes tonight with
gradual clearing expected overnight. Should see good radiative
cooling, especially late. Overnight lows expected in the 20s
areawide. Saturday will feature mostly sunny conditions and sw
winds, though an increase in mid-upper clouds is expected late
in the afternoon as the next shortwave trough moves thru the
northern Great Lakes region. Saturday's highs are expected in
the 45-50F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 AM EDT Friday...An upper level short wave will track
well to the northwest of the North Country and will swing a cold
front through. We'll be in the warm sector to start Saturday
evening as the front will rapidly track through the region. The
speed of the front should temper how much total rain occurs. 
There should be some elevational snow accumulation but given 
how fast the system moves through and the relative lack of PWAT 
I wouldn't anticipate much more than an inch or two in 
elevations above 1500 feet.

We'll likely see moderate to strong winds developing during the
overnight hours as the pressure gradient should be quite strong
Saturday night into Sunday. Still looking at southerly winds 
shifting to westerly at 10 to 20 knots and gusts of 25 to 40 
knots. Steep lapse rates and excellent mixing should mean that 
the Saint Lawrence Valley will be quite gusty.

Temps will be in the mid 30s Saturday night but behind the cold
front temps on Sunday during the day will top out in the upper
30s to near 40 and then fall into the teens to low 20s Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 358 AM EDT Friday...The work week starts off quiet as 
high pressure builds in. However that quiet weather will be 
short lived as an upper level low develops and brings a more 
unsettled pattern to the North Country. The first system is a 
Ohio Valley runner that will bring widespread light snow 
becoming light to moderate rain Tuesday. Specific rain/snow 
totals will depend on on timing of the system but early model 
runs do indicate significant precipitation will be possible.

High pressure builds in Thursday as colder air returns to the
North Country. The well below normal temps should continue
heading into the weekend with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s
and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...MVFR ceilings will prevail much of this 
evening with rain thru 12Z. Occasional IFR will be possible in 
moderate rain thru 12z with TRRN OBSCD, then a slow trend after
12Z back to a mix of MVFR and VFR by 18Z Friday. Will see 
gradual clearing skies tonight. 

Some localized LLWS remains possible thru 10Z at RUT/MPV, but 
that should also subside as low-level jet shifts east of VT 
toward daybreak. In terms of winds, generally SE-S thru 10-12Z 
from the Champlain Valley ewd, then shifting NW with frontal 
passage. At KMSS/SLK, winds have already shifted W-NW with low 
pressure passing east of those sites. 

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...Still looking at widespread moderate 
rain event (0.6" to 0.85" basin average rainfall), combined with
a decent amount of snowmelt, with SWE loss of around 1" 
expected through today. Fortunately, rivers are starting out 
near base levels. Seeing small streams rising early this 
morning, with larger rivers rising and cresting late today into 
tonight. It continues to appear that a few sites could crest 
very near the "minor flood" stage threshold, consistent with 
previous forecasts. The Winooski @ Essex Jct and Otter Creek @ 
Center Rutland should crest near minor flood stage while the 
Ausable River, Mad River @ Moretown and Lamoille @ Johnson 
should stay just below action stage. Think ice jam related 
flooding is minimal, as there isn't much ice left -- but we know
there is some downstream of Swanton, VT, so that will have to 
be watched along the Missisquoi. We will continue to closely 
monitor, but it appears that any flooding issues thru today will
be relatively minor and isolated, as bulk of rainfall ends 
early this morning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Lahiff

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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
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September 2008, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
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December 1999, Week 5
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