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SKIVT-L  March 2018, Week 5

SKIVT-L March 2018, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 29 Mar 2018 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (271 lines)

Expires:201803292000;;107648
FPUS51 KBTV 290722
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018


VTZ006-292000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
318 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers this afternoon.
Highs in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming southeast
around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Rain. Lows around 40. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
rain near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Rain in the morning, then a chance of
showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Little or no snow accumulation. Lows around 30. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201803291100;;116007
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    38  34  85 S3        30.03R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    35  33  92 CALM      30.06R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    30  30 100 S3        30.04R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  30  96 MISG      30.04R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    32  30  94 CALM      30.04R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    35  33  92 CALM      30.02F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    37  33  85 S3        30.03R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      30  29  96 CALM      30.05R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    35  33  94 CALM      30.03S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    32  31  97 CALM      30.03R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    35  32  88 CALM      30.02S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     32 N/A N/A SW21        N/A  WCI  20          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     36  34  93 S2          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  34  93 S6          N/A  WCI  31          

$$


Expires:No;;110532
FXUS61 KBTV 290823
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
423 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain generally dry conditions through
late afternoon today, though abundant cloud cover will be in
place. Daytime highs today will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s
as light southeast to south winds develop. A moisture-laden low
pressure system approaching from the Ohio Valley will track
across the North Country late tonight into Friday morning. This
system will bring widespread light to moderate rainfall to the
region tonight into early Friday morning. Sharp rises are
expected on area rivers to near bankfull during the daylight
hours Friday. Drier and seasonable weather is expected on
Saturday. A cold front will then bring scattered rain and snow
showers Saturday night, followed by a return to below normal
temperatures to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Thursday...Light low-level flow regime in place
with weak high pressure and flat pressure gradient across New
England early this AM. Low-level subsidence inversion has 
helped trap low-level stratus deck, and will generally see 
mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions today even as high pressure 
remains in control. Should see developing light SE-S winds by 
late morning as sfc anticyclone pushes into the Gulf of Maine. 
This will help with moderating temps despite limited 
insolational heating. Expecting highs 48-52F this afternoon. 

For this evening and tonight, will see the srn stream trough
across the ARKLATEX region eject northeastward into the Ohio
Valley and eventually right across the North Country around 12Z
Friday. Good fetch of moisture from the wrn Gulf of Mexico with
this system, should bring PW values 1-1.2" tonight across the
North Country, with good low-level WAA/isentropic ascent. Seeing
some elevated instability as well in NAM model soundings across
s-central VT during the pre-dawn hours Friday. Should see
developing showers this evening from SW-NE, with steady light to
moderate rainfall overnight (PoPs near 100%). Overall, increased
rainfall amts slightly to 0.60-0.75" across the region. If some
embedded convective elements develop, may see 1" rainfall in a
few spots before things rapidly wind down as synoptic forcing
translates to our north and east by 15Z Friday. With temps
holding in the 40s overnight, should see some accelerating
snowmelt as snowpack ripens. See Hydro section below for
discussion of river rises and potential minor flooding in 
spots.

Will see rather sharp cold front shifting ewd across the
Champlain Valley around 12Z Friday, and east of the CT river by
noon or so. May see early morning highs in the 50s across VT before
low- level CAA increases with westerly/northwesterly wind shift
by afternoon. Low-level lapse rates will be steep, promoting 
afternoon NW winds 10-20 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph. Should
see temps falling back thru the 40s in most areas during the
afternoon. Should see partial clearing during the day Friday
with just a few lingering sprinkles or high elevation flurries
with orographic ascent in NW flow. Deep-layer moisture departs
quickly Friday morning, so just looking at isold -RW/-SW for the
aftn period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...Warmish air will be pushing into 
the North Country on Saturday behind the cold front that tracked
through on Friday. A weak short wave ridge will build in and 
Saturday should be a relatively nice day albeit starting out on 
the cooler side. 925mb temps Saturday rise into the +3C to +5C 
range which should lead to highs in the upper 40s for most 
locales. Should be another decent day for sugaring as we'll be 
under partly cloudy skies through the morning with clouds 
increasing throughout the day. Overnight lows Friday night 
should fall into the 20s behind the cold front but as described 
above will recover to near normal during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...The brief window of upper level 
ridging and quiet weather will come to an end shortly as 
Saturday evening a 500mb shortwave will track through the Great 
Lakes and deepen a surface low as it runs up the Saint Lawrence
Valley. This means that we'll likely see moderate to strong 
winds developing during the overnight hours as the pressure 
gradient should be quite strong Saturday night into Sunday 
morning. In collaboration with neighboring offices we've 
significantly increase the forecast winds and wind guts during 
this time period into the 25-30kt range.

The bulk of the precip with low pressure system will arrive 
shortly after midnight on Saturday evening and so we'll likely 
see some sort of snow mixing with sleet in the higher terrain of
the Adirondacks but nothing of any concern. Anticipate a 
dusting to maybe an inch or so in the higher terrain heading 
into Sunday as the surface low swings through. High pressure 
builds in to start the work week as the flow aloft becomes zonal
and cold air returns to the North Country. We'll see well below
normal temps through the weekend and to start the workweek with
the next system anticipated late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Widespread MVFR ceilings expected thru 14Z
this morning with HIR TRRN OBSCD owing to prevailing stratus
deck and light wind regime. Locally IFR ceilings expected at 
SLK thru 14Z. Will see slight improvement for a time 14-22Z 
today as winds increase from the SE-S at 5-10kts (except 
remaining locally NE at KMSS). Thereafter, approaching warm 
front and low pressure system will result in deteriorating 
aviation weather conditions for the evening and overnight 
period. Periods of light to moderate rain expected tonight with
widespread MVFR and intervals of IFR ceilings thru 12z Friday. 

Outlook...

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 am Thursday...Still looking at widespread moderate 
rain event (0.6" to 0.75" basin average rainfall), combined 
with a decent amount of snowmelt, with SWE loss of around 1.5"
expected today thru Friday. Of course, some variability in
rainfall and snowmelt will influence local runoff and river
rises. Fortunately, rivers are starting out near base levels. 
We should start to see small streams begin rising late 
Thursday night, with larger rivers rising and cresting on 
Friday or Friday night. Right now, it appears a few sites could
crest just above minor flood stage, consistent with previous
forecasts. The Winooski @ Essex Jct and Otter Creek @ Center 
Rutland should crest at or above minor flood stage. Ausable 
River and Mad River @ Moretown should stay just below flood, but
come close. Think ice jam related flooding is minimal, as there
isn't much ice left -- but we know there is some downstream of 
Swanton, VT, so that will have to be watched along the
Missisquoi. 

Overall minor impact expected from any flooding, so have held 
off on a Flood Watch. Continued discussion in the Hazardous 
Weather Outlook. Bottom line, those around normally flood prone 
areas will need to pay attention to later forecasts in case 
minor flooding becomes more certain and/or more widespread than
currently expected. We will continue to closely monitor.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2010, Week 5
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April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
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