Expires:201804122000;;814172
FPUS51 KBTV 120727
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018


VTZ006-122000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
324 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then rain this afternoon. Highs
in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around
10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Rain. Lows in the mid 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph,
becoming west 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph after midnight.
Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the
morning, then scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the
mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the
morning, becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain, sleet and freezing rain likely. Little or no sleet
accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds around 10 mph.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Sleet and freezing rain with rain likely. Little
or no sleet accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Sleet, freezing rain and rain. Little or no sleet
accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation
80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain with freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower
30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.MONDAY...Rain. Highs around 50. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201804121100;;821889
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU APR 12 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    38  29  70 CALM      30.03R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    28  27  96 CALM      30.05S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    29  29 100 S3        30.03R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  25  81 MISG      30.02R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      29  29  98 CALM      30.03R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    34  31  88 CALM      30.03S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    33  32  96 SE6       30.03S WCI  28          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      25  23  92 CALM      30.06R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    32  31  96 CALM      30.03S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      29  29 100 CALM      30.02R FOG              
BENNINGTON     FAIR      29  24  82 CALM      30.04R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A W9          N/A  WCI  15          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     36  32  87 SW5         N/A  WCI  32          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  32  87 S8          N/A  WCI  29          

$$


Expires:No;;817004
FXUS61 KBTV 120834
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
434 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break of dry weather this morning, an approaching
warm front will bring a period of rain to the region from early
afternoon through midnight. Another brief period of drier 
conditions will follow for tonight into early Friday before an 
extended period of active weather is expected Friday afternoon 
through Tuesday. Periods of rain are expected Friday afternoon 
and night, followed by rain and mixed wintry precipitation 
Saturday through Sunday night, and heavy rain and windy 
conditions on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 432 AM EDT Thursday...Quiet conditions are expected to 
start the day as a weak surface ridge briefly builds into the 
region and should eventually break up low level clouds currently
over the area by mid-morning with a little sunshine possible 
before clouds quickly increase again from the southwest ahead of
next system. Low pressure moving into the Great Lakes this 
morning will track northeast through the Ottawa and St. Lawrence
Valleys dragging a warm front into the region this afternoon 
with light rain developing across northern New York from 17-19Z,
and eastward across Vermont during the mid-late afternoon 
hours. Widespread light rain then continues through the 
remainder of the daylight hours before tapering off after sunset
and ending by midnight as the low races off into the Gulf of 
St. Lawrence by 12Z Friday. A moderately strong south-
southwesterly 925-850mb jet of 45- 60kts accompanies the low, 
but the arrival time coincides with the heaviest precipitation 
falling and after sunset when mixing will be limited. Do expect 
some gusts in the 20-30 mph range from sunset through midnight 
though which will produce some shadowing of precipitation 
amounts in the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valleys where 
amounts will generally be around a quarter inch. Elsewhere, 
0.25-0.50" is expected. Highs today will range through the 40s, 
and lows tonight from the mid 30s to low 40s.

Trends for Friday in the latest guidance is for less 
precipitation and a slightly later arrival time of showers along
a stalled thermal boundary draped across southern New England 
Friday morning. Through mid-day expected mainly dry conditions 
in the wake of the aforementioned exiting low, but by the 
afternoon the boundary begins to shift north reaching the 
international border by 00Z. PWATs increase along and behind the
boundary to around 1" and this combined with weak shortwave 
energy passing through the flow aloft will develop scattered 
showers over the region during the afternoon with QPF by 00Z 
generally a tenth of an inch or less. Temperature forecast for 
the day continues to look extremely challenging given the sharp 
thermal gradient overhead with 925mb temps around 1C along the 
Canadian border to around 8C over southern Vermont. This 
supports highs holding mainly in the 40s north of 
Rutland/Windsor counties, with 50s to near 60 degrees across 
southern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 432 AM EDT Thursday...Complex forecast for the end of the
week with a frontal boundary wavering around the North Country.
Areas north of the front will be cold enough for wintry 
precipitation, while areas south of the front will be mild; a 
very tight temperature gradient will lie in between. This makes 
the temperature, precipitation type, and snow/sleet/ice 
accumulation forecasts very challenging with plenty of 
uncertainty. 

Low pressure will lie over the Northern Plains Friday night, 
with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending eastward 
across the Great Lakes to just north of the NY/VT international 
border. Waves of precipitation are expected along this front as 
moisture streams into the region on west to southwest flow 
aloft. This precipitation will start out as rain Saturday night 
with temperatures in the 40s. The frontal boundary will begin to
be shunted south early Saturday morning as high pressure to the
north noses south and east. Thus cold air will undercut the 
warm air further aloft, changing the precipitation over to a mix
of sleet and freezing rain from north to south Saturday and 
Saturday night. The question becomes how much southward progress
this cold air makes, how quickly it does so, and how deep the 
warm wedge above it remains. At this time, the cold front looks 
to push through about central VT/northern Adirondacks by 
Saturday afternoon before hanging up a bit, then making another 
push south overnight Saturday night. As such, much of northern 
NY/VT could see a prolonged period of a mix of sleet and/or 
freezing rain Saturday and Saturday night, while more southern 
portions of our forecast area would stay warm enough for rain 
through the daylight hours Saturday, then transition to a mix 
Saturday night. As mentioned above, there remains a fair amount 
of uncertainty as to how this plays out; there will be a tight 
temperature gradient across the North Country (current forecast 
has a Saturday high of 31F in Rouses Point, NY and 56F in 
Springfield, VT) and the forecast models are having a hard time 
resolving exactly where this gradient is going to set up in New 
England, though the trend with the 12/00z guidance seems to be 
further south than previous runs. It is extremely difficult at 
this point to forecast snow/sleet/ice amounts as just a 50-mile 
difference in the front's eventual position would have huge 
impacts in precip type and amount. The further south/colder NAM 
solution would result in more snow and less ice, while the 
further north/warmer GFS would potentially give northern VT/NY a
substantial amount of ice. Have stayed with a blend of the GFS 
and ECMWF for now as the NAM seems to be a cold outlier. The 
fact that we are well into April also complicates the sleet/ice 
accumulation forecast and any associated impacts. Stay tuned to 
later forecasts on this developing situation. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 432 AM EDT Thursday...The complicated weather scenario 
continues into early next week, with wintry mixed precipitation,
strong wind potential, and heavy rain all concerns. The upper 
trough will dig into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Sunday and 
Monday, allowing moisture to stream northward into New England 
as the aforementioned frontal boundary surges back north as a 
warm front. The wintry mixed precipitation across the region 
will change over to plain rain through the day Sunday into 
Sunday night, lingering longest east of the Green Mountains. 
Additional sleet/ice accumulations are possible. Temperatures 
look to be warmest on Monday, ahead of an occluded front that 
will cross the region later Monday into Monday night, with highs
topping out in the 40s and 50s. PWATs of 1-1.50 inches combined
with the frontal passage will result in a period of rain, 
especially Monday into Monday night. This combined with snowmelt
will produce substantial rises on area rivers. Winds are also a
concern for Monday as a 50-65kt southerly jet will exist ahead 
of the aforementioned occluded front. South to southeast winds 
will set the stage for gusty downslope winds along the western 
slopes and portions of VT. This will need to be monitored 
closely. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mix of flight conditions across the region
will continue through 12Z with the lowest ceilings occurring at
KMSS/KSLK/KRUT. 12-18Z ceilings lift to VFR area-wide in advance
of a warm front approaching the region from the southwest, but 
after 18z ceilings lower again and eventually reach MVFR 
category by 20z across northern New York and 00Z for all TAF
sites. Rain shifts into the region along the warm front with
similar timing to MVFR ceilings, and will also lower vsby to
MVFR/IFR for the remainder of the period. Light south-southwest
winds overnight increase sharply after 12Z with gusts increasing
late in the day to 18-25kts.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Definite FZRA, Likely PL.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely PL, Definite RA, Definite FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite PL, Definite FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Lahiff

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