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SKIVT-L  June 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L June 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 3 Jun 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (248 lines)

Expires:201806032000;;360222
FPUS51 KBTV 030738
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018


VTZ006-032000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
336 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then showers after midnight.
Lows in the mid 40s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Southeast winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Occasional showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 60. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201806031100;;367740
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      52  43  71 N3        30.01R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       45  45 100 CALM      30.11R VSB 1            
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      39  39 100 CALM      30.07R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     43  40  89 MISG      30.06R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      42  35  75 CALM      30.09R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      59  47  65 SE7       30.02R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      56  50  80 SE14      30.03R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      52  51  97 CALM      30.08R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      45  40  83 E3        30.02S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      38  38  97 CALM      30.09R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      60  48  64 E8        30.01R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A SE14        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  37  50 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  48  82 NW10        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  48  82 SE5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;362184
FXUS61 KBTV 030822
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft and at the surface will provide the North 
Country with dry conditions and near normal temperatures today. 
Clouds and showers will quickly increase across northern New York by 
late today and spread into the Champlain Valley and Vermont 
overnight into Monday. The upcoming week with feature cool 
temperatures and unsettled weather through Wednesday, before drier 
and warmer temperatures return by Thursday and Friday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 421 AM EDT Sunday...Water vapor shows a complex pattern across 
the eastern conus with mid/upper lvl ridge and deep dry air 
over northern New England, while potent s/w energy and 
negatively tilted trof was located over the Great Lakes. This 
energy and moisture will interact with closed 5h/7h system over 
the mid Atlantic to produce a deep negatively anomaly trof acrs 
the ne conus. The forecast challenge today into tonight will be 
timing of clouds/precip as ridge/dry air breaks down and sharp 
850 to 500mb moisture axis develops ahead of approaching trof. 
RAP/NAM and ECMWF show 850 to 500mb moisture >70% approaching 
the SLV by 18z and mainly west of the cpv thru 00z this evening,
as initial potent 5h short energy associated with negatively 
tilted trof and weak sfc low pres lift acrs the Great Lakes. 
Based on upper level forcing and moisture have included likely 
to cat pops btwn 21- 00z for the slv. Thinking CPV and points 
east will stay dry today, as initial moisture surge will mainly 
impact the slv/western dacks, with sfc high pres holding strong 
and deep dry layer. Meanwhile...secondary vorticity and 
developing southwest 850 to 700mb jet of 25 to 40 knots will 
help to advect much deeper moisture from southwest to northeast 
across our cwa overnight. Pws start near 0.50 but increase to 
1.25 to 1.50" overnight as deeper moisture advection occurs 
ahead of approaching short wave trof. This moisture and dynamics
will produce a period of showers overnight and have mention 
pops near 100%. QPF fields will be complex with first surge of 
better forcing/moisture lifting across our western cwa and 
secondary surge with sfc low pres moving along the coast 
impacting our central/southern cwa of vt. This will result in 
parts of the cpv seeing less qpf with values btwn 0.50 and 0.75 
slv/western dacks and parts of central/southern VT and 0.25 and 
0.40 for cpv and parts of northern VT. Progged 85h temps range 
btwn 9-10c this aftn, which supports mainly 70s, except upper 
50s to lower 60s mtn summits. Tonight, expect some wet bulb 
cooling to occur as precip arrives with lows ranging from the 
mid 40s to mid 50s. 

Monday...Deep closed 5h/7h and associated sfc reflection become 
vertically stacked just south of Hudson Bay, while potent 5h short 
energy approaches our western cwa by 18z. Initial surge of 
moisture/lift should exit our eastern section by 15z, with brief 
midday break in showers, before additional activity develops ahead 
of strong dynamics. Still some uncertainty if dry slot develops and 
parts of our cwa break into some sun and potential impacts on 
temps/instability. Currently thinking mostly cloudy with limited 
instability, but combination of strong dynamics and very cold 5h 
temps of -22c to -24c moving across our cwa...a few rumbles of 
thunder are possible on Monday aftn. For pop fields will mention cat 
pops exiting our cwa by 15z...with high chc/likely redeveloping aft 
18z Monday from west to east. The aftn activity will be more 
convective in nature and pin pointing exact qpf is always 
challenging, but generally a 0.10 to 0.25, but localized higher 
amounts in areas that receive multiple rounds of showers. Temps with 
cool easterly sfc flow across central/eastern vt hold in the mid 40s 
to lower 50s, with mid/upper 50s cpv/northern ny, except near 60f 
for the slv. If more sun develops in dry slot, these temps will be 
several degrees warmer, especially cpv and parts of the western 
dacks. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Sunday...Low pressure remains over the region 
Monday night and Tuesday continuing to bring cool and wet 
conditions through the short term period. Models continue to 
agree that low pressure will continue to slide southeast from 
Canada to right over the CWA by afternoon. Chances for showers 
will be prevalent throughout the day with the greatest chance in
the afternoon at peak daytime heating with the northern 
counties see most of the activity. Look for rainfall totals of a
tenth of an inch down south to up to a half inch around the 
international border. Look for lows Monday night in the 40s and 
highs on Tuesday in the 50s with some valley locations making it
to 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Sunday...Low pressure continues it slow progression
to the southeast Wednesday, leaving with it continued chances 
for showers early on Wednesday, especially across the eastern 
counties. Wednesday night the low finally moves off into 
Atlantic Wednesday night bringing an end to the cool wet 
weather. Thursday leads to a short reprieve as a ridge of high 
pressure moves in to the CWA, bringing drier and warm conditions
for the back end of the week with another chance for a shot of 
precip next Friday. Models differ going into next weekend but 
all show unsettled weather at some point before the weekend is 
over. Expect low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Highs will be 
in the upper 50s to 60s Wednesday and then will push to the low 
to mid 70s by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Surface analysis places 1026mb high pres
over hudson bay with developing easterly 925mb to 850mb flow of
20 to 25 knots per KCXX VAD profile. VFR conditions will prevail
overnight into Sunday, with clear skies and light winds thru
sunrise. Difficult in taf forecast is the potential for some
shallow ground fog/br to develop at mpv/slk toward sunrise this
morning. Temps have already fallen below cross over values and
low level stabilization has resulted in light winds at the sfc,
so thinking a brief period of mvfr/ifr vis is possible btwn
08-10z at both slk/mpv. Have utilized tempo to mention mvfr vis.
Otherwise...gradient continues to increase on Sunday with breezy
southeast winds of 10 to 20 knots developing, some localized
gusts to 25 knots possible at rutland. Clouds thicken after 18z
with rain showers arriving btwn 03-06z Monday, along with some
mvfr cigs developing aft 06z. 

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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March 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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April 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 1
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December 2003, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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