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SKIVT-L  June 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L June 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 12 Jun 2018 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201806122000;;818834
FPUS51 KBTV 120818
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
415 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018


VTZ006-122000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
415 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds,
becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 60. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs around 80.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201806121100;;824179
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      54  43  66 VRB3      30.10F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      43  40  89 CALM      30.17R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      38  38 100 CALM      30.13S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     40  39  97 MISG      30.14R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      40  38  93 CALM      30.15S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      55  45  69 S5        30.14R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      47  41  80 SE10      30.15S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       44  44 100 CALM      30.18R VSB 3/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      51  43  72 S3        30.08S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      43  39  86 CALM      30.12S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      47  44  90 CALM      30.17R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A E2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A SW29        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  46  67 S13G20      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  46  76 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  46  71 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;818638
FXUS61 KBTV 120813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
413 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect plenty of sunshine today with high pressure remaining in
control. A south to southwest flow of air will bring warmer
temperatures to the area. Our string of dry weather will come to
an end on Wednesday as a cold front moves into the region late
in the day and helps enhance the potential for showers. The
threat of some thunderstorms will also exist Wednesday afternoon
and evening. The cold front will exit the region late Wednesday
night and bring most showers to an end. Cooler temperatures and
the threat of more showers is expected for Thursday...but a
warming and drying trend will begin on Friday and continue right
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...Other than some high thin clouds 
moving across the area early this morning...a good deal of 
sunshine is expected today. Low level flow becomes more south 
and southwest with time and this allows noticeably warmer air at
925 millibars to move into the region this afternoon. This 
combined with drier air mass in place should result in high 
temperatures generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a few 
spots reaching the mid 80s.

Moisture will start into increase across the area
tonight...mainly in the form of clouds and higher dew points
with the threat of precipitation holding off until Wednesday.
Low temperatures will generally be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday remains on track to be the most active day of the
week. Still looks like the potential for some thunderstorms
later in the day and into the evening hours. Will also need to
keep an eye on the potential for some strong convection. Mid-
level height falls of 80 to 120 meters associated with a
shortwave trough moving out of the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday
afternoon will help to strengthen the low and mid level flow.
Seeing 30-40 knot 850 mb winds and 60-70 knot 500 mb winds
moving into northern New York Wednesday afternoon. This stronger
westerly flow is moving over the top of an axis of instability
that will be developing ahead of a cold front...which reaches
northern New York in the 21z to 00z time range. Think CAPE
values will be in the 500-1000 J/kg range over northern New York
and can see the potential for a high shear/low CAPE environment.
This setup has the potential to produce gusty straight line
winds from any thunderstorms that develop and will continue to
monitor. Have continued the idea of thunderstorms in the
forecast for Wednesday afternoon...but holding off on any
enhanced wording at this time. Feeling right now is
western and central New York may have the best potential for
strong to severe storms. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid
70s to lower 80s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...The threat for showers will continue
into Wednesday evening as the upper shortwave/surface low trek 
eastward just north of the international border. The associated 
cold front will swing through from west to east during the 
evening hours, and expect fairly widespread shower activity in 
response. Although we will be past peak heating, thunderstorms 
will still be possible through midnight due to dynamic forcing, 
as evidenced by 500mb height falls of 10+ dam. Drier air will 
work in behind the front, resulting in a break from the shower 
activity for most. Lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60. 

For Thursday...although the morning hours will be dry across much of 
the region, showers will return by the afternoon as a secondary cold 
front moves south out of Canada. Timing of the frontal passage makes 
for a tough precipitation and temperature forecast, as much cooler 
air looks to follow in its wake; 925 mb temps will fall some 4-8 
degrees C by sunset. Have gone with a model blend owing to model 
differences, which lowered expected highs by a few degrees from the 
previous forecast. Otherwise, showers to develop from north to south 
through the afternoon hours. These showers will wane through the 
evening as daytime heating is lost and the boundary exits the 
region. After a somewhat muggy night Wednesday night, Thursday night 
will be more comfortable as temperatures drop into the 40s to around 
50. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...The end of the week and through the 
weekend will be dry with a warming trend. High pressure will 
build across the region at the surface Friday and Saturday, 
while northwest flow prevails aloft. The ridge shifts to our 
south and east on Sunday, with return flow bringing an influx of
warmer and more humid air. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will 
have lots of sunshine with daytime temperatures warming from the
mid and upper 70s Friday to the mid 80s on Sunday. The nights 
will get increasingly muggy, as well. Relief will arrive Monday 
as a cold front crosses from north to south. Showers could 
develop Monday morning as a prefrontal trough moves through, 
though the front itself looks to hang back until later Monday 
afternoon/evening. As always, there is some question with 
frontal timing and any morning activity with the prefrontal 
trough and effects they will have on possible afternoon 
convection; note that both the ECMWF and the GFS indicate CAPE 
values in excess of 1000 J/kg Sunday afternoon, especially in 
central and southern portions of our forecast area. Have 
therefore included a chance of thunderstorms for these areas. 
The warm temperatures continue on Monday out ahead of the cold 
front; highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the
period with little in the way of any cloud cover. Light winds
through about 14z then increasing from the south with gusts in
the 10 to 20 knot range through about 00z before winds drop back
into the 5 to 10 knot range from the south and southwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Evenson

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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 5
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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January 2006, Week 5
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January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 2
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
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June 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 3
June 1999, Week 2
June 1999, Week 1
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May 1999, Week 4
May 1999, Week 3
May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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December 1998, Week 5
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