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SKIVT-L  June 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L June 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 13 Jun 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (248 lines)

Expires:201806132000;;870262
FPUS51 KBTV 130828
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
425 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018


VTZ006-132000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
425 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

.TODAY...Mostly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance
of showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and
variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance
of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph after midnight. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 50. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. 
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201806131100;;874875
ASUS41 KBTV 131030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      65  51  60 S10       29.87F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      63  53  70 S13       29.94S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      60  52  74 S6        29.89S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     51  50  96 MISG      29.89S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      56  49  79 CALM      29.93R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      63  51  64 SE3       29.91F                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    64  50  60 SW3       29.94F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      54  50  86 CALM      29.95S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      65  53  66 S6        29.85F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      60  52  75 CALM      29.89S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      50  47  89 CALM      29.97S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     55 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W25         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  55  72 S15G23      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  55  82 S14         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  52  67 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;870317
FXUS61 KBTV 130829
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
429 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level trough of low pressure and its associated
cold front will move out of the Great Lakes today and into our
region late in the day and especially tonight. Clouds and some
showers will exist well ahead of this system...but as it gets
closer to the area the threat of showers and some thunderstorms
will increase over the area. The best chance for any storms 
will be over northern New York and any of these storms could 
produce strong and gusty winds. Showers will linger across the 
area tonight...especially in the mountains and this will be the 
case on Thursday as well. Below normal temperatures are expected
on Thursday...but a warming and drying trend will take place 
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Wednesday...Bottom line it looks like the best
threat for thunderstorms that have the potential to produce 
strong and gusty winds will be across portions of northern New 
York late this afternoon and evening. 

Water vapor imagery from early this morning shows potent
shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region with some 
convection tied to it. Noticeable height falls are associated 
with this feature and as it moves into southeast Ontario and 
southwest Quebec late in the day...wind fields will continue to 
strengthen. As a result favorable deep layer shear will develop 
just to the west of our area late this afternoon. Cold front 
associated with this feature will exit the eastern Great Lakes 
late this afternoon and an axis of instability should develop 
ahead of it with 1000+ J/kg of CAPE from eastern Lake Ontario 
southwestward into northwest Pennsylvania. Further north over 
the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks CAPE values 
should be roughly 500-750 J/kg. Limited instability but as the 
deep layer shear increases over the top of this instability and 
dynamic forcing increases...the threat for showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will exist. Storm motion will likely be on the 
fast side with storms moving as fast as 30 to 35 mph. Thus any 
outflow from a storm could reach speeds in the 40 to 60 mph. 
Going forecast has mention of gusty winds in the forecast and 
this looks good. Further east into Vermont any convection will 
not move in until around sunset or shortly thereafter and less 
instability will exist. Storms will tend to weaken and thus have
removed the mention of gusty winds and thunderstorms from the 
Champlain Valley eastward. Deeper mixing will take place tonight
behind the front with gusty west to southwest gradient winds 
expected after the passage of the front and when the showers
come to an end. Shortwave trough will pass to our north 
tonight...but could still see some showers overnight...especially
in the mountains.

On Thursday area remains under a trough and there will still be
some showers around...especially in the mountains. Expect plenty
of clouds as well and below normal temperatures with highs only
in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Wednesday...Scattered showers will 
linger into Thursday night as the upper trough swings across the 
North Country. Drier air and high pressure will follow, allowing 
showers to wane by daybreak Friday. The clearing trend will continue 
through the day Friday, with plentiful sunshine expected by mid to 
late afternoon. We'll get off to a cool start Friday morning with 
overnight lows in the lower 40s to around 50, but the aforementioned 
sunshine will warm temperatures nicely into the 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will build 
across the region at the surface while northwest flow dominates 
aloft. This will lead to dry weather along with a warming trend 
through the weekend. The ridge moves to our east on Sunday, allowing 
a warm front to lift across the region. This will usher in a very 
warm and humid airmass for Sunday into Monday; Sunday's highs will 
be well into the 80s with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. This 
airmass will then interact with a cold front that will slip 
southward out of Canada sometime on Monday. As is usually the case, 
there are differences in the long range models in regards to timing 
of the frontal passage, which may occur anywhere from mid-day Monday 
to midnight Monday night. The GFS is the fastest and brings the 
front through during the afternoon, while the Canadian GEM and ECMWF 
lag behind with an evening frontal passage. Either way, anticipate 
we'll see showers develop during the day Monday. Thunderstorms will 
be possible, especially if the front moves through during peak 
heating. Note 0-6km shear values are progged to be in the 35-50 kt 
range, though the highest shear looks to lag behind the highest 
instability. With plentiful moisture, CAPEs will exceed 1000 J/kg 
south of the front. PWATs will approach 2 inches ahead of the front 
as well, and with deep warm cloud depths, would anticipate any 
convection would be capable of producing heavy rain. The cold 
frontal passage timing would also impact Monday's high temperature 
forecast, especially for our more northern areas. Have stayed close 
to a model blend for the Sunday-Monday night timeframe owing to the 
model discrepancies. Regardless, cooler and drier air will settle 
into the region for Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 70s in 
most areas. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected through at least
16z as we will only see a gradual lowering of ceilings this
morning. Mostly mid level clouds with some deeper moisture
moving in after 12z...but again ceilings will be above 5000
feet. Scattered showers will move across the area between 16z
and 22z...but visibilities will remain in the VFR category. A
strong trough/cold front will start to move toward the region
after 21z and could see some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing over western New York and southeast
Ontario before moving into northern New York between 21z and
03z. Any of these showers or storms could produce gusty winds
and have included MVFR conditions with these showers along with
the mention of variable winds of 25 to 35 knots. These showers
should weaken as they move into Vermont late in the period. As
the cold front moves east across the area after 00z there will
be a wind shift to the southwest and west.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Evenson

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