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SKIVT-L  June 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 15 Jun 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (231 lines)

Expires:201806152000;;569660
FPUS51 KBTV 151013
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
610 AM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018


VTZ006-152000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
610 AM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain this morning, then
sunny this afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows around 50. West winds around 10 mph until
midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs around 80. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and
variable winds. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy
rainfall possible. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall
possible. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper
50s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201806151100;;570163
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  54  51  90 N5        29.95R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  50  50 100 NW7       29.96R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    51  48  89 N6        29.95R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     53  49  86 MISG      29.90R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   50  48  93 CALM      29.94R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      51  50  96 N5        29.94R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  52  51  97 NW5       29.93R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    56  56 100 CALM      29.90R                  
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   51  49  95 CALM      29.96R                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   48  48  99 CALM      29.95R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    56  53  90 NW5       29.92R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A NW6         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A NW24        N/A  WCI  31          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     54  52  94 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  48  82 N14         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  54 100 NW17        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;563813
FXUS61 KBTV 150801
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the North Country today, leading to 
mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 70s. Dry weather and 
warming temperatures will continue into the weekend, with Sunday's 
highs reaching well into the 80s. Humidity will increase through the 
weekend as well. This increasing moisture combined with a slow 
moving frontal system will result in the potential for showers and 
thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...An upper shortwave is currently 
sliding southward across the international border early this 
morning, resulting in widespread light rain, drizzle, and low 
clouds. Drier air lies just behind this feature however, so 
expect conditions will quickly improve this morning once the 
wave moves to our south, placing us under northwest flow. It 
will be a beautiful day by this afternoon with plenty of 
sunshine and highs in the lower 70s. High pressure will settle 
over the region tonight and Saturday, keeping conditions dry. 
Clear skies will prevail overnight tonight into Saturday 
morning, but some high clouds will spread over the North Country
Saturday afternoon as a disturbance slides by just to our west 
late in the day. Tonight's lows will be in the mid/upper 40s in 
the mountain areas, lower to mid 50s in the wider valleys, 
followed by highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Saturday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...Mainly quiet weather is then expected
on Saturday night as upper ridging builds eastward into the 
region. There will likely be a decaying area of convection off 
to our southwest overnight across southwest Ontario into western
NY state on the nose of stronger mid level flow and higher PWAT
air. For our area mainly scattered convective "debris" mid to 
upper level clouds are expected with no precipitation as lows 
bottom out in the 50s to locally around 60 in the Champlain/St. 
Lawrence Valleys.

By Sunday the aforementioned upper ridge continues to build into the 
area along with increasing warmth and humidity under modest 
south/southwest flow. Model averaged 18-21Z 925 mb temperatures are 
running in the +20-24C range, the GFS and ECMWF being the warmest. 
This supports highs well into the 80s with a few spots nearing the 
90F mark. Dewpoints will also be on the rise with late afternoon 
values climbing into the 60s with a few spot low 70s in the SLV so 
it will feel increasingly muggy by early evening. By late in the day 
or toward early evening we'll likely be watching an additional area 
of convection off to our north and west which may make a run at our 
western counties toward sunset as stronger 30-40 kt mid level flow 
advects a deep and moist airmass into our area (PWATS ~ 1.5-2.0). 
For now have held off on any enhanced wording per disparity in model 
convective solutions and SPC SWODY3 progs. However we'll need to 
watch model-derived parameters/output more closely over the coming 
48 hours to better define any threat for stronger storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...An active period of weather is still 
expected for the Sunday night and Monday time frame as a very 
warm, moist and unstable airmass will lie across our region and 
interact with a surface front dropping southward from 
Ontario/Quebec. Nearly all model solutions show this time frame 
having the best threat for showers and storms with mean PWAT 
values nearing climo max values for the period (1.8 to 2.1 
inches). MBE velocity vectors from forecast soundings also show 
potential training signals for storms that do form in this 
period and have maintained heavy rainfall wording in the 
forecast accordingly. After thorough perusal of data overnight 
my feeling is we'll be dealing with an initial round of 
convection Sunday evening/night on the front nose of the 
stronger mid level flow and moisture gradient, then additional, 
potentially stronger convective development on Monday as the 
airmass interacts with the approaching frontal zone. As such, 
high chance to likely pops will be maintained for this period 
with heavy rainfall remaining a possibility. Monday afternoon 
would likely see the highest threat for any stronger storms 
given the ambient heat and humidity with the main threat being a
few moist/wet microbursts. 

After lingering showers and a few storms Monday evening 
sensible conditions trend more quiet from later Monday night 
onward into mid week as Canadian high pressure builds southward 
behind the departing frontal zone. Temperatures will remain 
seasonably warm in this period (highs in the mid 70s to lower 
80s) though post-frontal humidity levels will fall to more 
manageable levels. Toward the end of the work week global models
hint at another possible disturbance pushing into the region 
with a renewed threat of showers and a few storms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Light rain with patchy drizzle will 
continue through 12z or so this morning, along with widespread
MVFR/local IFR conditions. Drier air will quickly move in from
north to south, starting around 08z Fri or so, with clearing
skies and VFR conditions at all terminals by 14z Fri. VFR will
prevail through the remainder of the period thereafter. Winds
will be light northwest through the day today, becoming light
and variable overnight tonight. 

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely
TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Hastings

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