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SKIVT-L  June 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 21 Jun 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (245 lines)

Expires:201806212000;;867904
FPUS51 KBTV 210716
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018


VTZ006-212000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
314 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. North winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. North winds around 10 mph
until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. South winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:201806211100;;875783
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  63  44  50 N12       29.82R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    60  56  86 W6        29.84R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    60  51  72 N10       29.81R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  56  86 MISG      29.78R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    56  42  58 W6        29.83R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    61  55  81 N5        29.81R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      53  50  89 E6        29.81R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      51  51 100 CALM      29.80R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      56  42  61 N10G16    29.85R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      54  46  74 NW7       29.84R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      51  49  92 CALM      29.80R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     55 N/A N/A NW5         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  45  55 N2G13       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  45  55 N20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  55  77 N25         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;868544
FXUS61 KBTV 210740
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front dropping southward out of Canada this morning will 
start the day with a mix of sun and clouds, but high pressure 
building in from the north will quickly turn skies mostly sunny by 
this afternoon. High pressure dominates the North Country through 
Friday before unsettled conditions return for the weekend with 
periods of rain likely from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Thursday...Watching a mainly dry cold front 
drop into the forecast area this morning with just a few light 
showers moving from the Ottawa Valley into northern New York 
falling out of a mid level cloud deck. These showers will likely
scatter out as they move across the Adirondacks with nothing 
more than a few sprinkles possible through dawn across portions 
of the northern Champlain Valley. The front has brought an 
abundance of cloud cover to the majority of the forecast area 
overnight, but upstream behind the boundary high pressure is 
building in with clear skies noted north of the international 
border. So while a mix of clouds and sun are expected this 
morning, we should see full sunshine by this afternoon. 
Northerly flow will keep temps down below seasonal normals 
today, with 925mb temps around +12C north to +18C south will 
support highs ranging through the 70s with the coolest spots 
north, warmest south.

For tonight, high pressure settles over the region with clear 
skies and light winds leading to abnormally cool temperatures 
for mid June. Most locations will see lows about 10 degrees 
below normal ranging through the 40s, but expect to see a few 
spot 30s in the usual cool spots of the Adirondacks and 
Northeast Kingdom. Could see KSLK even hit freezing with the 
potential for some frost, but as usual they'll be the odd spot 
with no other locations seeing a frost threat. High pressure 
dominates for Friday as well, but as the low level flow shifts 
to the south/southwest, temps will warm back to summer-like 
levels with highs in the mid/upper 70s to locally around 80 in 
the deeper valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Thursday...Main forecast issue during the 
short-term period is speed/evolution of closed, mid-upper level 
low over the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes Friday night. 
Overall trend in 00Z NWP guidance suite is a slower newd motion 
of this closed low, which should keep most of the North Country 
dry Friday night. Carried just 20-30% PoPs across Franklin/St. 
Lawrence counties, and s-central VT after 06z, but generally 
trend is for just advancing mid-level cloudiness from SW- NE 
during the Friday night period. Low temperatures should range 
from the lower 50s east of the Green Mtns, to the mid-upr 50s 
from the Champlain Valley wwd. 

Mid-level closed low becomes an open 700-500mb wave as it 
tracks across wrn NY and wrn PA Saturday afternoon, and 
eventually across nrn NY and VT during Saturday night. Will see 
a gradual moistening in advance of this trough, with PW values 
increasing to 1.4-1.5" by Saturday afternoon. Delayed the onset 
of shower activity, with just chance PoPs Saturday morning 
(30-40%), increasing to 50-60% toward late afternoon/evening. 
Convective instability is quite limited, and have removed 
mention of thunderstorms attm based on trends. Highs on Saturday
generally 70-75F. 

Should see best large-scale forcing during Saturday night, with
periods of showers across the region. May see 0.1-0.25" 
rainfall totals, with rather uniform lows in the mid 50s under 
overcast skies. Initial shortwave trough departs Sunday morning,
but trailing northern stream trough approaches from sern 
Ontario/swrn Quebec by Sunday afternoon. Thus, this should 
result in redevelopment of shower activity across the region 
Sunday aftn, with PoPs 60-70%. Highs on Sunday generally 
expected in the low-mid 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Thursday...Northern stream shortwave trough 
will cross nrn NY and VT from NW-SE during Sunday night, 
bringing widely scattered shower activity, especially thru 06Z. 
The 00z GFS is a bit quicker than the 00Z ECMWF with the 
departure of this system, but consistent with previous fcst, 
indicated 50-60% PoPs thru 06Z, then mainly 30-50% between 06- 
12Z. If the 00Z GFS verifies, most of the rainfall will be done 
by 06Z. QPF relatively light during Sunday night, with 0.1 - 
0.2" generally expected. Lows Sunday night mainly in the mid 50s
with abundant cloud cover anticipated. 

May see lingering -SHRA Monday morning - mainly central/ern VT 
(PoPs 20-30%) as 500mb trough axis shifts east of the region and
low-level north winds 10-20 mph bring low-level CAA and shallow
instability. Gradually, will see enough drying to bring partly 
to mostly sunny skies from west to east by the afternoon hrs 
based on present indications. Temperatures will be slightly 
below seasonal levels for late June, with Monday afternoon highs
in the lower 70s. 

The remainder of the long-term period should be quite pleasant 
with deep-layer ridge building ewd from the Great Lakes Monday 
night, and holding in place across the nern CONUS thru 
Wednesday. Should see dry weather with moderating temperatures. 
Indicated valley highs in the 75-80F range on Tuesday, and then 
low-mid 80s on Wednesday with modest humidity levels (2-m 
dewpoints low-mid 50s). Overnight lows Monday night mainly in 
the mid 40s to lower 50s, then mainly in the low-mid 50s for 
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours with the only exception being the chance for some
LIFR fog/stratus at KSLK from 07-11Z. Dry cold front dropping
through the region overnight will continue to provide BKN-OVC
mid level clouds through about 10-12Z, where thereafter skies
will trend SKC for the remainder of the period. Light and
variable winds overnight trend northerly at 5-10kts after skies
clear this morning, then return to nearly calm after 00Z.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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February 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
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January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 5
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January 2004, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 3
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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March 2001, Week 5
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February 2001, Week 1
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December 1998, Week 5
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