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SKIVT-L  June 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 16 Jun 2018 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (235 lines)

Expires:201806162000;;611409
FPUS51 KBTV 160714
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
312 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018


VTZ006-162000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
312 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. West winds around
10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable
winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY...Occasional showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms
may produce gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in
the mid 80s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of rain 80 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Occasional showers and thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall
possible. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201806161100;;619340
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    54  49  83 CALM      30.01R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      49  48  97 S3        30.05R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      46  45  96 CALM      30.02R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  46  97 MISG      30.00R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      48  47  97 CALM      30.03R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      50  49  93 CALM      30.03R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      47  45  93 SE6       30.05R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       46  46 100 CALM      30.03R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      57  50  77 S5        29.99S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      51  50  97 CALM      30.00S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      45  43  93 CALM      30.06R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A W24         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  54  72 S8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  52  77 S12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  52  82 SW7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;617786
FXUS61 KBTV 160941
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
541 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build across the North Country 
through the first half of the weekend with mostly sunny skies and 
above normal temperatures prevailing. Sunday will be very warm with 
highs in the mid to upper 80s, while Monday will be very muggy and 
perhaps even a few degrees warmer. The chances for showers and 
thunderstorms will increase overnight Sunday night and linger into 
early Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Any storms that 
develop could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Cooler 
temperatures and dry conditions resume on Tuesday after the frontal 
passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...It is shaping up to be a warm 
and mainly dry weekend as we remain under the influence of high 
pressure. The upper ridge axis will stay to our west through the day 
today, resulting in northwest flow aloft. An MCS is currently riding 
around the top of this ridge into IL/IN/MI at this hour, and while 
the bulk of this convection will remain to our west today, high 
clouds associated with this activity will spread into the North 
Country this afternoon. Still, anticipate a good amount of sunshine 
for most of the area. This afternoon's highs will range from the 
upper 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the wider valleys. 
The mild conditions continue overnight as temperatures only dip into 
the mid to upper 50s, though the usual colder spots in the 
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could get into the 40s. 

For Sunday...the upper ridge axis shifts east, ushering in a very 
warm airmass. 925mb temperatures of 23-25C indicate surface 
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with some locations possibly 
hitting 90. Dewpoints will rise a bit through the afternoon, but the 
worst of the humidity looks to hold off until after the near term 
period. Note that much of the 00z guidance holds off any 
precipitation until Sunday night, as consensus now shows convection 
rounding the upper ridge will remain just to our north through 
Sunday evening. That being said, some models, including the local 
4km, do show that an isolated shower or thunderstorm could brush 
across the Northeast Kingdom. Have pulled back PoPs fairly 
significantly owing to the model consensus, but still have a slight 
chance of a shower along the International Border very late in the 
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...An active period of weather still 
looks in store for our area by late Sunday night across the far 
north and especially on Monday/Monday evening across the entire 
area. During this period an anomalously moist airmass will 
interact with an approaching surface front to produce scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Mean PWAT progs suggest 
values will surge into the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range on Monday which
are near record levels for the date per SPC sounding climo. 
Thus I'll maintain the idea of locally heavy rainfall given the 
high ambient moisture and MBE vector progs showing the potential
for training despite modest cell movement per 30-40kt mid level
flow. Despite rather modest updraft potential (not uncommon 
under such a moist airmass) equilibrium levels range in the 
40-45 kft level so precipitation loading in more robust 
convective cores remains a possibility Monday afternoon and 
evening enhancing the potential for a few wet microbursts. 
Temperatures will run very warm to hot with lows Sunday night 
from the mid 60s to lower 70s and corresponding highs on Monday 
ranging from the mid 80s along the intl border to the upper 
80s/lower 90s elsewhere. With sfc dewpoints running in the upper
60s/lower 70s on Monday heat indices will likely approach 
advisory levels in portions of the St Lawrence, Champlain and 
Connecticut River Valleys by early to mid afternoon before 
convective activity arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...We'll start Monday evening under 
the aforementioned moist airmass with scattered to numerous 
showers and storms, a few quite heavy. However, by later in the 
evening and overnight a surface front will drop through the area
pushing the activity southward over time leaving just some 
scattered showers far south by sunrise Tuesday. Lows to trend a 
bit more tolerable under developing light northerly flow - 
mainly from the upper 50s/lower 60s north and lower to mid 60s 
south.

Thereafter, another stretch of outstanding weather appears likely 
from Tuesday afternoon onward through the remainder of the work 
week. Mean surface high pressure should in general dominate regional 
weather conditions with mainly dry, seasonably warm weather under 
more tolerable humidity levels. There is some hint of a weak 
trough passage and an additional push of drier air in the mid week 
time frame with perhaps a stray sprinkle or shower across the far 
north. However, models continue to show some disparity with this 
weak feature so it's nothing to get too excited about at this point. 
Highs during the period to generally range from the mid 70s to lower 
80s with overnight lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through 
Saturday night as high pressure settles across the North 
Country. High clouds will increase this afternoon as convection 
remains to our west, but no precipitation is expected through 
the period. Some local MVFR/IFR will be possible due to patchy 
fog 07z-11z in the usual prone spots both this morning and again
on Sunday morning. 

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely
TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Hastings

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
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April 2006, Week 2
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March 2006, Week 4
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 3
October 2003, Week 2
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October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
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August 2002, Week 3
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August 2002, Week 1
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July 2002, Week 2
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June 2002, Week 5
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June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
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May 2001, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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